I think 4 to 6 is probably where we will be in the second half of next year, provided the earnings continue to grow.
I think drinks is looking better and better.
Like I said ... $2 would be nice. I think we're heading back down to $1.20 or so for a while until the next earnings announcement if past history is any indicator. At which point I will happily increase my holdings.
Hog prices are up in China by about 15% in Q3, and most recently as high as 16RMB/kg versus 12 at the start of the year. The earnings should have turned positive in the core hog business at least for market hogs, black pigs is an unknown, but their program should finally be making a contribution to the bottom line. Their feed mill should be fully operational by now and thus should also be contributing. This should be the quarter that turns things around and the earnings turn positive and begin a steady growth again.
The earnings announcement is on Monday the 11th. I suspect we will see an improvement in cash flow on the basis of stabilized hog prices and the impact of their black hogs and retail programs. Maybe a break-even at the bottom line or slight positive NPAT.
I am eagerly awaiting the results of Q3, they will announce on Nov 11 it seems. If the earnings return to normal, then I think $5 is easily achievable, it's so undervalued, it's silly even at today's price.
I'm not in favor of the split nor the expansion of share capital and voted against both. But clearly I am in the minority on this point.
You know, if I knew that this would happen within days of posting that I am getting bored and fed up with the share. To recap, we now have:
1. Share price rising with better liquidity and momentum
2. Shorts getting worried. I love it when these idiots come back and say their usual uninformed #$%$ to try to push the share price down, it does two things: a) it makes them post really ridiculous, but entertaining stuff; b) when they need to spam the MB to get the share price down, you know they're really nervous, meaning they know the share is doing well.
3. Increased likelihood that Wiz will be buying us drinks. Especially now that he is officially out of the dog house and his wife thinks he looks like Brad Pit.
4. Pahad gets flamed by the shorts or whatever that was. Secretly Pahad enjoys it because he's laughing himself all the way to the bank ... but not yet because he's going to wait until the price hits $8.
5. French horns come out to play and horses stampede chasing the fox ... or is it a pig? Anyway, chasing their quarry.
6. Dutch stays quiet, and suddenly pops up with something interesting, we're still waiting ... but we know Dutch is out there somewhere formulating ideas.
7. Bu, does what Bu does and we love it. Just wish we could get those pics again. But the Haiku added a level of intellectual rigour to the MB that is unparalleled.
8. We converted a few shorts to longs. Imagine that. Eoim...Eminem or whatever, welcome on board.
9. The Man from La Mancha appears in favor of our share, donkey and all. Anyone ever been to the DonK store in Tokyo? If not, go.
10. OINK is now newsworthy in a good way.
11. Despite its faults, OINK is doing better than the US Government which somehow seems to think that personal self interest is more important than the great country they are supposed to represent and support. If the shorts want to focus on something, they will have more luck with GOP and DEMS - both suck and should be delisted
... and so we settle in for another long boring stretch with prices in the .70s until mid November with absolutely NOTHING announced from OINK about what they are up to, with expectations that the company will finally turn the corner in the next earnings announcement, which they probably won't with the same old story "Prices for breeder hogs are down, our black hogs program is still a work in progress".
Yawn yawn yawn.
I'm beginning to lose patience with this company.