That can turn around and bite them at the end of the subscription. These are twelve month subscriptions. As I mentioned before, a lot of that technology was developed during the high unemployment and underemployment rates. Anything worked. So, they were giving out deals and discounts thinking that if people use the technology, they will fall in love with it and renew every year. So, they are obviously selling the technology at a deep discount which causes two problems. First, upon renewal, they are probably complain about the increase in price and ask for a continued discount. Second, if it really doesn't work and all their people are happy with Linkedin...they will probably set the software to non-renew. They are really placing a big bet on this. Those numbers you have posted show the high risk they had to take. Discounts usually mean people aren't interested enough to pay full price. I think on renewal...they just won't be interested at all.
I think the short squeeze is going on right now. for the last two years revenues have declined by 60 million per year and they are on pace to do that again this year. At the same time all their competition has been growing. They had to take out a 100 million dollar loan that will dilute the shares when the senior convertible notes sell at the agreed upon $5 share price. Right now 98% of the shares are owned by institutionals. There is a large bullish call spread that was taken out for December at the 5 and 9 strike respectively. I don't see institutionals increasing their positions, but at this point, the shorts that loaded in the 4's need to cover. Looking at the YOY numbers, they are not good enough to cause the rise in share price.
The reason I keep harping on revenues is because EPS does not matter. Keep in mind, they took out a 100 million dollar loan. They have Senior Convertible Notes that can be exercised at $5 per share. So once the notes start to convert, the EPS will fall due to the dilution. When you factor this in, you really need to have a high EPS to absorb that impact. Unfortunately with the rapid decline in revenues plus dilution in the future, the earnings are not what they need to be.
They have been averaging a decline of 60 million per year. They have all these new products as well as this new model, and they are still watching their revenues decline. The BLS has reported 5.4 million job openings, the highest since it started recording back in 2000 and still...revenues decline. With the massive turnover, commissions on the pipeline are not paid. So, you will see the cost of business go down, but the revenues go down with it. What will be the breaking point.
It will keep going down. Look at all the Puts bought at the $6 strike. They expire Aug 21. Usually something that close without being a bearish put spread is a sign that an institutional is worried. Why else would you buy an insurance policy on 200,000 shares. Funny thing is, the open interest on options for Monster is pretty thin. I am guessing that they would buy more if the market would allow at the right price. The ask is at .55. That would means they are worried that the stock will drop below 5.45. I see the 4's coming back very soon.
I was being kind. Remember in the beginning of the year I predicted they were at a tipping point and the loss of revenue were going to accelerate. I really think it will be 25 mil. Check the BLS, 5.4 million job openings STILL. They started keeping track back in 2000. This is the highest it has ever been. Monster should be killing it right now. Like you mention, when the veterans leave, so do the big accounts. CB has been hiring while Monster has been laying off. They know when the Monster rep leaves. Also, the new model is not working. They had a year and no go. If their trend continues, all the EBITDA hype will not matter. They won't have the resources to grow.
You are being generous. They laid off 300 employees...some of those folks whether cost effective or not brought in revenue. Turnover continues to be high. Look anyone up one Linkedin that worked for Monster in the past, you will find more that used to, than currently do. Also, look at the "people also viewed" column. Several people that had been there for years and left recently. Any time you see that many leave, you have to replace and train. That causes the revs to dip. Remember, last year they hired 100 people to create an acquisition team. At this time last year they had everyone in place including the veterans. Over the past year, layoffs, veteran turnover and a product launch that was dismal. They will be down at least 15 mil YOY.
I really don't know how they will pull this one off. There was horrible turnover last quarter. Basically once the commissions went out, several employees left. If you don't believe me, look on Linkedin. Just do a search for Monster current and Monster Past. Or just look of someone that works there and go through the "people also viewed" section. Seems like every time I do this, the list has several that RECENTLY left. You cannot build revenue on the insane turnover that is going on right now. Oh, and the Glassdoor reviews, paint a horrible picture.
Great, give us the other side. There are several facts presented that are public information. This message board can support both views because there are investors that have short positions as well as long positions. There are investors that have bought calls as well as puts. Both sides have an interest. Salpleasego has accurate numbers that he is posting to support the shorts and the puts. So, give us your research that would support the longs and the calls. I would say that this is a respectful request.
Did you read what I just said? Take the gains, that doesn't happen with every trade. It has been flat for the past 4 months so at this point the breakout is less likely. They have a Q coming up that could cause the stock to drop back down to where you bought it. Read my reply again.
You should have sold 4 months ago when it was $6.73. It has gone flat/down for the last 4 months. You can wait for the Q at the end of the month, but if the news is off by just a little, well you know what happened this time last year. I would hate to see it go to the 4's again and have you lose you gains when you got it at the low. Remember what Warren Buffet said "I've made a lot of money selling too soon:.
I read the post that was deleted in my mailbox. You have to say Monster, MWW or Monster Worldwide. When you refer to it as the web address, it will automatically be deleted. Anything that could deleted when it looks like it is in the form of a link.
That surprises me. I have had posts removed from the employees at Monster that were harassing me. But that was because they violated community guidelines. I know that if you post a link, it is also automatically deleted. I think the competition has died out. Everyone knows there is not one positive thing they can post about this company. The other message boards I have been posting on is the same way. No one really has any kind of defense. They try to have my posts deleted, but that is all they can do. No one has an intelligent argument for this company.
Several articles have made statements of the job listings for Monster going from 250,000 last year to 4 million this year. Basically what they did was take all their job boards and created and aggregate model that scrapes the postings from other sites. Similar to what Indeed does. This has NOTHING to do with increase in postings or job ad sales. Most people do not even know this is being done. Indeed is much better, so it hasn't really been a hot topic. Just keep in mind, they did not increase their posting business. Oh, and another goal producing rep left this month. You can check it out on linkedin for people that worked for Monster in the past in MN. Two years in a row hitting goal, not the territory is empty. Speaks volumes when even the good reps go.
athoughtj, I assume you work there. So, I assume you know about things that are not good for business. Things that will not promote expansion. What is the turnover like? Has it gone down? How many sales reps internally and externally are hitting their goals? How many layoffs? How much longer do you think operations in the UK are going to last? Nikos Livadas is featured in the SeeMore video on youtube and was NA Sales Director, why did he leave if the technology is doing so well? Also, Salpleasego is correct. The revenues have been declining year of year and the number of employees have been declining year over year...all while the competition has seen an increase in both...what is keeping you so optimistic?
98% of the shares are held by institutions. Meaning that the average shareholder cannot move the price. The top 10 institutions hold over half the shares. Check out the option contracts that expire in December. I have been watching them and someone has placed a HUGE bullish call spread in place. They have bought 2000 (100 shares per contract) contracts at the $5.00 strike and sold 2000 contracts at the $9.00 strike. So they want the 5's to be in the money and the 9's to expire worthless in December. An individual investor would not set up a bullish call spread that would be that large. Only an institution that knows they can control the share price going forward. If you see the 5's start to close out, that means news will be so bad even and institution slapping the ask on several 100 share blocks throughout the day can't move it. If there is no selling, the price will stay over five for the rest of the year.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Yet something else they scrap because it is not working. Well...FIX IT! Even if it was not cost effective, it was still a revenue source. They have been paring down so many revenue streams they will slowly shrink into extinction. They are just looking for a profitable company right now so they can keep their jobs. This is just temporary because their competitors are EXPANDING. This is a market that you expand your business, not shrink it. As I mentioned, as the revenues fall, they will become nothing but a small niche company that will be looking to sell off the parts that are still turning a profit at the end. They can no longer compete.
Funny, I thought someone wrote a reply. Oh well, I guess get_a_life_salpleasego once again violated community guidelines. Amazing how he consistently breaks the rules. Maybe that is why he is a good employee for Monster...constant rule breaker full of lies.