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Olin Corp. Message Board

dejpuj8 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2015 12:03 PM Member since: Sep 3, 2010
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  • Reply to

    The fight for $7.03

    by junkieoption Aug 25, 2015 10:56 AM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Aug 25, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    If the Max Pain theory holds true, Monster will be under $7.00 by Sept 18.

  • Well I guess all those calls at the 8 strike and all the puts at the 6 strike are expiring worthless. Let's see if the Max Pain theory holds true through the end of the year.

  • I remember they tried to sell the company at 10 bucks about three years ago to no avail. However....over 2000 calls at the $10 strike for March? That is not individual investors. Look at all the call options, biotech do not have as much call activity as Monster has. Continuous declining revs, EPS that will tank once the senior convertible notes start coming through, mysterious booking claims that are not documented...the calls are trying to say something. Either it is the shorts getting protection, or something big is going to happen soon, and it is not going to be an unexpected change in guidance to the upside.

  • Reply to

    As of 7/31

    by junkieoption Aug 11, 2015 5:22 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Aug 12, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    98% of the stock is held by institutionals. They can do whatever they want with the price. For some reason they want it higher. As for the lower revs, in 2011 they had 6000 employees. Now they have 3,800. You can't have a decline of 2200 employees without revs going down.

  • Reply to

    Options buys

    by petebagpiper Aug 11, 2015 2:43 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Aug 11, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    Those expire next Friday. That is pretty hefty for the 8 dollar strike...here's a question...who would be interested in buying Monster? I know they had the "for sale" sign up in 2012 when they were looking for 10 bucks a share. These call options are crazy. Not just August, but December as well. If you look at the Max Pain theory, these are risky bets...unless someone knows something.

  • Reply to

    Other data

    by salpleasego Jul 31, 2015 9:10 AM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 31, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    That can turn around and bite them at the end of the subscription. These are twelve month subscriptions. As I mentioned before, a lot of that technology was developed during the high unemployment and underemployment rates. Anything worked. So, they were giving out deals and discounts thinking that if people use the technology, they will fall in love with it and renew every year. So, they are obviously selling the technology at a deep discount which causes two problems. First, upon renewal, they are probably complain about the increase in price and ask for a continued discount. Second, if it really doesn't work and all their people are happy with Linkedin...they will probably set the software to non-renew. They are really placing a big bet on this. Those numbers you have posted show the high risk they had to take. Discounts usually mean people aren't interested enough to pay full price. I think on renewal...they just won't be interested at all.

  • Reply to

    Is a Shot Squeeze next?

    by imark7000 Jul 31, 2015 9:07 AM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 31, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    I think the short squeeze is going on right now. for the last two years revenues have declined by 60 million per year and they are on pace to do that again this year. At the same time all their competition has been growing. They had to take out a 100 million dollar loan that will dilute the shares when the senior convertible notes sell at the agreed upon $5 share price. Right now 98% of the shares are owned by institutionals. There is a large bullish call spread that was taken out for December at the 5 and 9 strike respectively. I don't see institutionals increasing their positions, but at this point, the shorts that loaded in the 4's need to cover. Looking at the YOY numbers, they are not good enough to cause the rise in share price.

  • The reason I keep harping on revenues is because EPS does not matter. Keep in mind, they took out a 100 million dollar loan. They have Senior Convertible Notes that can be exercised at $5 per share. So once the notes start to convert, the EPS will fall due to the dilution. When you factor this in, you really need to have a high EPS to absorb that impact. Unfortunately with the rapid decline in revenues plus dilution in the future, the earnings are not what they need to be.

  • They have been averaging a decline of 60 million per year. They have all these new products as well as this new model, and they are still watching their revenues decline. The BLS has reported 5.4 million job openings, the highest since it started recording back in 2000 and still...revenues decline. With the massive turnover, commissions on the pipeline are not paid. So, you will see the cost of business go down, but the revenues go down with it. What will be the breaking point.

  • Reply to

    Did the quarter numbers leak?

    by salpleasego Jul 28, 2015 9:48 AM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 28, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    They are going to need something to distract everyone from the lousy revenues.

  • Reply to

    Did the quarter numbers leak?

    by salpleasego Jul 28, 2015 9:48 AM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 28, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    I guess you will find out on Thursday

  • Reply to

    Did the quarter numbers leak?

    by salpleasego Jul 28, 2015 9:48 AM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 28, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    It will keep going down. Look at all the Puts bought at the $6 strike. They expire Aug 21. Usually something that close without being a bearish put spread is a sign that an institutional is worried. Why else would you buy an insurance policy on 200,000 shares. Funny thing is, the open interest on options for Monster is pretty thin. I am guessing that they would buy more if the market would allow at the right price. The ask is at .55. That would means they are worried that the stock will drop below 5.45. I see the 4's coming back very soon.

  • Reply to

    Thursday is the day right?

    by salpleasego Jul 27, 2015 2:09 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 27, 2015 5:53 PM Flag

    I was being kind. Remember in the beginning of the year I predicted they were at a tipping point and the loss of revenue were going to accelerate. I really think it will be 25 mil. Check the BLS, 5.4 million job openings STILL. They started keeping track back in 2000. This is the highest it has ever been. Monster should be killing it right now. Like you mention, when the veterans leave, so do the big accounts. CB has been hiring while Monster has been laying off. They know when the Monster rep leaves. Also, the new model is not working. They had a year and no go. If their trend continues, all the EBITDA hype will not matter. They won't have the resources to grow.

  • Reply to

    Thursday is the day right?

    by salpleasego Jul 27, 2015 2:09 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 27, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    You are being generous. They laid off 300 employees...some of those folks whether cost effective or not brought in revenue. Turnover continues to be high. Look anyone up one Linkedin that worked for Monster in the past, you will find more that used to, than currently do. Also, look at the "people also viewed" column. Several people that had been there for years and left recently. Any time you see that many leave, you have to replace and train. That causes the revs to dip. Remember, last year they hired 100 people to create an acquisition team. At this time last year they had everyone in place including the veterans. Over the past year, layoffs, veteran turnover and a product launch that was dismal. They will be down at least 15 mil YOY.

  • Reply to

    Q2 Analyst Estimates

    by salpleasego Jul 23, 2015 2:06 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 23, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    I really don't know how they will pull this one off. There was horrible turnover last quarter. Basically once the commissions went out, several employees left. If you don't believe me, look on Linkedin. Just do a search for Monster current and Monster Past. Or just look of someone that works there and go through the "people also viewed" section. Seems like every time I do this, the list has several that RECENTLY left. You cannot build revenue on the insane turnover that is going on right now. Oh, and the Glassdoor reviews, paint a horrible picture.

  • Reply to

    Sour Grapes!

    by get_a_life_salpleasego Jul 21, 2015 2:39 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 21, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    Great, give us the other side. There are several facts presented that are public information. This message board can support both views because there are investors that have short positions as well as long positions. There are investors that have bought calls as well as puts. Both sides have an interest. Salpleasego has accurate numbers that he is posting to support the shorts and the puts. So, give us your research that would support the longs and the calls. I would say that this is a respectful request.

  • Reply to

    So do I sell now?

    by athoughtj Jul 16, 2015 5:00 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 17, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Did you read what I just said? Take the gains, that doesn't happen with every trade. It has been flat for the past 4 months so at this point the breakout is less likely. They have a Q coming up that could cause the stock to drop back down to where you bought it. Read my reply again.

  • Reply to

    So do I sell now?

    by athoughtj Jul 16, 2015 5:00 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 16, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    You should have sold 4 months ago when it was $6.73. It has gone flat/down for the last 4 months. You can wait for the Q at the end of the month, but if the news is off by just a little, well you know what happened this time last year. I would hate to see it go to the 4's again and have you lose you gains when you got it at the low. Remember what Warren Buffet said "I've made a lot of money selling too soon:.

  • Reply to

    Salpleasego Don't Go Away

    by b.collins97 Jul 14, 2015 3:58 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 15, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    I read the post that was deleted in my mailbox. You have to say Monster, MWW or Monster Worldwide. When you refer to it as the web address, it will automatically be deleted. Anything that could deleted when it looks like it is in the form of a link.

  • Reply to

    Testing

    by salpleasego Jul 13, 2015 2:19 PM
    dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 14, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    That surprises me. I have had posts removed from the employees at Monster that were harassing me. But that was because they violated community guidelines. I know that if you post a link, it is also automatically deleted. I think the competition has died out. Everyone knows there is not one positive thing they can post about this company. The other message boards I have been posting on is the same way. No one really has any kind of defense. They try to have my posts deleted, but that is all they can do. No one has an intelligent argument for this company.

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