Today's trading range was of no surprise to me. AMRN's probably going to trade in the $250-$300 cap range until we have a newsworthy event. Newsworthy translates into something major such a partnership/JV, buyout or major investor such as Carl Ichan. It's probably unreasonable to assume a big-time investor such as Icahn will move in due to the overall depressed values in biotech as well as the concern Clinton will take the Whitehouse in November. I once owned a stock (Amylin) that had a management team sitting on a once weekly diabetes drug and lacked urgency. Icahn bought in around $18 and it ended up be sold for $32 within 6 months to BMY as I recall..
A major part of this company's problem is a lack of volume which also ties into the last paragraph.. The volume issue is directly tied to management. Aside from a couple of legal victories - this has been a long running play. Management lacks a sense of urgency. Todays's CC is an example of this. JT stated he's not sure when they will partner - maybe before or maybe after RI interim results. He's needs to move on this and lay the foundation for investors/traders. Management can enter into a licensing or JV agreement with moving milestones. This team also has not announced a plan for 967. Today's CC had a single 4-part question from Jon Boris at SunTrust -that's it!. The rest of the questions were pulled from their website. The company needs analyst coverage at these meetings and CC's
RI is probably in the bottom of the 6th inning. If there locked up value here, the PPS is a goldmine. I suspect we have a lot of watchers and steady script growth combined be break even by years' end could trigger a move.
AMRN will see a small increase in PPS leading up to next weeks CC unless the overall market tanks. Lost in this speculation and absent from discussion both here and I-Hub is the fact that MRK is also waiting for the sequence of events to unfold. MRK desperately wants a competitive advantage in the CV space and has been working on a number of projects over the last few years. First, the company dropped MK-0524B back in 2012 which was a combination of a generic cholesterol lowering statin with niacin, which was thought to lower triglycerides, and a third compound, laropiprant, which would have helped alleviate some of the side effects of niacin. Then MRK launched Liptruzet which was a fiasco and now the recent CRL for Zytia and Vytorin. Anyone think the recent hiring of Granowicz from MRK is a coincidence? A dude of this caliber is usually brought in for a couple of reasons. 1) To evaluate, determine and promote a drug candidate's drug pipeline for other possible indications. 2) Serve as an insider to evaluate the prospect of a drug candidate and provide insight regarding proper valuation of the drug franchise.
There are a couple of short term catalysts. 1A settlement negotiations will be complete by March 17. A lot of AMRN investors currently suffer SEVERE heartburn and feel management is not competent handling the FDA - WRONG. They have a lot of smart people working on this both inside and outside the organization. I suspect the ongoing delay is a wait game for a major event involving ANCHOR. RI 967 has already occurred but management will not announce this until 1A settlement happens. If AMRN comes close to hitting its RI target, we'll know soon enough how these events will unfold. Look for a MRK buyout by summer!