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Lee Enterprises, Incorporated Message Board

dennis_hill2002 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 23, 2014 4:19 PM Member since: Aug 3, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Great buying opportunity

    by lynel13 Oct 13, 2014 11:06 AM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Oct 23, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Agree. They have implemented most of their business changes now and are ready to recover from last year's sudden refinancing drop off. Several initiatives will be taking hold - got out of retail and going back to what they did before. Unconventional loans coming back some with less strict requirements. New partners and financing sources. This quarter could finally start a strong up trend. Their legacy portfolio should continue to show gains now instead of losses and their discontinued business losses have pretty well ended now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tax time...

    by dix_jd Oct 16, 2014 3:05 PM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Oct 20, 2014 7:38 PM Flag

    Agree - company with 25m revenue and below 1M market cap that has great potential. They have made great progress in the business itself. Ryan underestimated the convertible debt holders as far as their greed in unfairly driving the price of the stock down so they could convert at a ridiculous price. They grew too fast and relied too much on convertible debt that had a conversion price equal to 60% of the stock price. The new debt is convertible at a fixed price of .15 so that is better in that there is no incentive to drive the price down. I don't understand why they can't get a conventional term loan. I wish thy would be more aggressive in explaining what has happened to the share price and how they plan to stop the convertible debt situation and that the business itself is doing great. I do feel once they get past this -Ryan has stated they will have cash in early 2015 to pay this off - that there is tremendous potential here. Risk - yes for sure - potential 50 bagger - yes -not many of those around,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tax time...

    by dix_jd Oct 16, 2014 3:05 PM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Oct 19, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Where did you see that Ryan bought?

    It all comes down to the convertible debt if they can pay off the current ones that come due in February and March. They had 400K adjusted EBITDA last qtr so the business itself is profitable - needed money for working capital build which should be leveled off now with money flowing in from A/R. Any announcement of term loan or positive news on paying off convertible and we go straight up. With the stock price dropping this much and convertible debt issue it does make you wonder if the company is legitimate. Based on the business and goals they have for 2017 this "could" be an easy 50 bagger with a lot of risk to get there at this point.

  • Reply to

    Federal 14/15 - 7 - 21 is the Mancos

    by minnesotasucksweiners Sep 10, 2014 6:48 PM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Sep 10, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    I'm long here but one question I have is the 25% JV - appears they gave up 75% of the Koko for $4M - i.e. they are covered for the first 16M of drilling costs for their 25% portion. What am I missing here -I know they were pressed for capital and under time pressure to preserve the leases but in effect did the JV partner buy 75% of Koko for $4M?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings are here and good

    by shrewd_curmudgeon Aug 29, 2014 11:56 AM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 30, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    I would add that Q1 FY13 had those low margin Asia sales so comparisons to FY2014 may be more meaningful - although the backlog and revenue comparison to FY13 does give some idea of the potential.
    6M sales for Q1 FY2015 would be a good trend especially if backlog continues to increase. 7M is possible but would be a blowout increase from last quarter,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings are here and good

    by shrewd_curmudgeon Aug 29, 2014 11:56 AM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 30, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    I agree there are a lot of unknowns but I do think Q1 FY15 in about 40 days or so will give us some indication of where we are heading - my feeling (a lot based on reading between the lines) is they have now turned the corner. Two years ago Q1 FY13 was 7.3M sales which was a strong quarter - I think we can come close to that - otherwise what have they gained with the expansion? They also have new products ramping up, higher capacity, and eventually lower costs per unit. Year end backlog going into Q1 FY13 was 17.5M with 8M in progress, less than this year at 24M total and 12M in progress. So the key to me appears to be can they ramp production up and are they back at full speed after the facility move which they did state took longer than they estimated. Plus the economy is improving from 2012, and defense spending in their area is improving. We will know more in 40 days or so.

  • Reply to

    Earnings are here and good

    by shrewd_curmudgeon Aug 29, 2014 11:56 AM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 29, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    We should get an idea when the Q1 10Q comes out in 45 days - at least we only have to wait 45 days whereas we had to wait 135 days for the 10K since they have extra time for the 10K and they seem to wait until the very end. Sales should be in the 7M range or higher if this is really going to take off. If orders remain strong - they have some good momentum here with some cutting edge products in the earthquake, etc. area - they will need to really ramp up production which was the idea of the new facility. Well managed conservative company with some big potential in the next few years. I think the statement they made that the back order increase says it all was a clue as to what is to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings are here and good

    by shrewd_curmudgeon Aug 29, 2014 11:56 AM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 29, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    They seem to be back on track now. This report was through May and appears they still were getting the new facilities up to full speed. They also indicated there were some orders going out in FY15 that they were possibly producing in Q4 FY14. Backlog increased 6.1M so that would make orders in Q4 at 5.3M sales + 6.1M increase in backlog = orders of 11.4M - huge orders. Some of this may be timing as they indicated they work on these a while till they actually become orders. So the question going forward is how fast can they convert the backlog plus new orders into sales - hopefully they can ramp up production now. I would assume capacity is maybe twice what it was before as they mention being able to do some things 2 or 3 times faster now. Would be nice if they provided a little more information on the back order situation and when they can convert to sales, etc.

  • Reply to

    Toms resignation

    by sodaman1998 Aug 16, 2014 7:34 PM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 16, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    I think it will be good. He seemed to run the company very secretive, The company is on a good path right now and I don't think he will be missed that much right now as current direction is set for the short term. The SEC charges probably had a lot to do with it and would have been a distraction - and maybe some other issues turned up in the investigation. He is at retirement age - hope the company doesn't have to pay a big severance, The CFO who came in a few years ago appears to be helping steer the company toward profitability. Time for a new CEO I think and will be good for the company.

  • Reply to

    EMAN Patents list with Hyperlinks on IV

    by twelfth_rock Aug 10, 2014 6:26 AM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 10, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Guys, remember this was pushing $5.00 2 years ago and $9.00 3-4 years ago - is it worth that much less now? The SNUP has been a disaster but they are finally putting that behind them. When Scully came in he turned the company around and will do it again in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    OT: Dah Bears

    by schatzman Aug 10, 2014 4:59 PM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 10, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    Great player, great person - one of the good guys.

  • Reply to

    EBITDA for the quarter

    by bridgejumper08 Aug 9, 2014 4:30 PM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 10, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    I like your idea that they need to be aggressively moving the company forward and also increasing shareholder value. If they are not going to continue expanding volumes going forward or making acquisitions, then as cash becomes available they need to use it. However, they currently do not have a lot of cash as they have had to use it to finance A/R for the increased sales and they have also added over 5M in fixed assets apparently needed for the higher production volumes. They also have taken money on their line of credit they will have to pay back - all part of financing a ramp up in business. The communication from the company is sparse as evidenced by one or two sentences from the CEO in the earnings release - but as long as they achieve results eventually the stock price will equal the value of the company,

  • Reply to

    Goodness,,, what a day???/

    by magalo555 Aug 8, 2014 4:04 PM
    dennis_hill2002 dennis_hill2002 Aug 8, 2014 6:59 PM Flag

    The are back on track after getting hit with the mortgage fall off last year when interest rates went up. Experienced management that have come through some rough periods. The new programs they are rolling out could be huge plus their legacy portfolio has recovered. Look at the stock price 5 or so years back - if we get to half of that in the next two years it will be a big gain.

LEE
3.73+0.13(+3.61%)Oct 31 4:06 PMEDT

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