It's around $4.50
He had a large initial and expensive investment that has been dramatically averaged down by large purchases (both share placement and warrants) at mid-2s.
There's a bunch of chatter over on the Cafepharma board that puts launch somewhere betwee late Jan to mid-Feb. Take it for what it's worth, I guess.
An early to mid Feb launch seems reasonable. Would love to get a peek at those home study materials.
SA is just a conduit. Those are all independent authors looking for click revenue. Positive or negative, SA doesn't have a dog in that fight.
The latest piece is pretty poorly written. Let me summarize:
Insider selling, insider selling insider selling. And in conclusion: insider selling.
I think it's just a matter of the label not ending up matching pre-approval speculation. It's not a big deal, IMO, as long as patients understand that they can take Afrezza with them on a 1-week vacation without needing an in-room fridge, but a 2 or 3 week jaunt (or project work on the road) will require an in-room fridge in the hotel.
Actually, Afrezza has a higher requirement for refrigeration (10 days at room temp) than Lantus, Novorapid , or Levemir (each at least 28 days).
This is an important misunderstanding, which originated with MNKD management pre-approval, and which has not been publicly corrected by them, other than the verbiage on the label.
Afrezza may be left unrefrigerated for 10 days, and once opened, cartridge strips must be used within 3 days if unrefrigerated.
I'm not trying to bash Afrezza here. If a diabetic took the old "no need to refrigerate" claim as true, they could risk having their Afrezza lose potency and end up with rising blood glucose.
If you think the price will not stock at $5.50 until expiry tomorrow, this could be an interesting gamble.
$5.50 calls at 5 or 6 cents, $5.50 puts at 13 cents.
Price would have to reach $5.71 or $5.29 to be profitable.
You don't have to be bullish or bearish - if you think there'll be movement in the next 10 trading hours then it's worth a try. if you think the price will be stable, then it's a no go.
I'm long, so it irks me. Poor allocation of capital, in my opinion. Unless I'm missing something, nobody other than Al has shown themself to be that calibre of executive. Once Afrezza is a success and MNKD is profitable, then that team will deserve to reap the rewards.
Re: social justice - I'm not concerned with the rank and file salaries, although if there was evidence that they were overpaid, I'd be irked at that as well. Mannkind does not have free cash flow, so their cash reserves are precious.
I agree. The bright spot here is that SNY knows their stuff in the diabetes space, and they have a good incentive (65% of profits and no manufacturing capex risk) to make this work.
Once the company is in full production and coining some revenue, I can see it, but this seems out of proportion.
Any of those guys make in a year what I'll make in my whole career, and I think I'm pretty well paid.
From the April 11 2014 proxy filing:
Alfred E. Mann $5,612,670
Matthew J. Pfeffer $4,484,181
Hakan S. Edstrom $7,425,744
Juergen A. Martens, Ph.D $ 5,034,70
David Thomson, Ph.D., J.D $4,399,988
Mannkind has 260 employees. If you assume an average salary of $100K (after all, you have both the Dianne Palumbos and the loading dock workers to consider), you get a compensation expense of:
260* 100,000 = $26,000,000
So, 5 people = 27M, the other 260 = 26M
Great gig if you can get it.
Note: The CFO who couldn't remember the fully diluted share count makes $4.5 M
What's even crazier is that I'm still long...
That makes sense, Kevin, although I don't see Hakan as a terribly effective face for the company. Who knows, maybe he's awesome at strategy and execution.
The bar is pretty low for blockbuster status - only $1 Bln per year. If SNY can mate Afrezza up with even 15%-20% of current Lantus or future Toujeo (if approved) users, sales will exceed $1 Bln world wide.
According to the "IDF World Diabetes Atlas", the prevalence of diabetes in Europe is 7.9%. In North America / Carribean it's 11.4% so yeah, I guess that is the next thing I'd try to tell you.
Look up that report, it's really informative. Shows why it makes sense to roll out in NA, then EUR then JPN and then be very selective about other markets.
They're a smaller market with a higher population. Less insulin is sold there. Kind of like the USA is a smaller ludefiske market than Norway.
Global Diabetes Market Revenues (From Frost & Sullivan)
Insulin represents abt 45% of this.
Amounts in $Bln US
2015 (est): $19.4
2015 (est): $14.0
2015 (est): $4.25
Rest of World
2015 (est): $7.12
How many of these claims are SNY permitted to make?
2, 7, 12, 13, 14
Note: for #9, it's the night time basal that gives the greater risk. for #12, Afrezza is not approved for oediatric use and won't be until 2019, as per deferral agreement with the FDA. But yes, there was a handling study done with children, so i think it stands.
"Ultra fast acting" accounts for 3 of the claims (just duplicates), but the FDA denied Afrezza that claim.
I think it's important not to conflate pre-approval claims with post-approval label. The label is what counts, as is evidenced by SNY's recent use of "fast acting", for example. What happens, for example, if a patient hears the false claim that Afrezza doesn't need refrigeration (it can be left at room temperature for 10 days max) and ends up with far less potency because of improperly storing it?
I think Afrezza has a fine commercial future, even with the shorter list of advantages. Plenty of folks waiting for an alternative.
I agree with all of the facts thet you have presented, Redhaw. Why not? They're facts, after all.
The issue is: Will these population statistics translste to market size? The global diabetes market is $40 Billion for all forms of treatment. This is about 1% of the maximum potential spend if all diabetics were to be treated with Insulin and / or Januvia.
That's a big gap! Will Afrezza / Toujeo change the economics? No. Will they change acceptability to the 1% who are on expensive medications already? I think perhaps.
It's a strange thing. 99% of the _potential_ market is untapped, and has stubbornly remained untapped. Part of the reason is that inexpensive older treatments like Metformin and Sulfonureas, which cost a few dollars a month, have widespread use, and patients can not affort or do not need second line medications.
As for any other reasons - it's a bit of a mystery to me.
Large numbers of people (hundreds of millions) go untreated because they can't even afford Metformin.
My point on my previous tongue in cheek post was to point out that it's not like NVO and SNY have never thought of selling to the poor. There's simply no money in it, so they ighnore those markets. And they will continue to do so IMO.
The EU market is about 50% of the size of the US market. The whole non-us (all the rest of the world) market only eauals the size of the US market for insulin,
And folks in the EU sure do make more than $2 a day.
Of course, you seem ignorant of India, almost all of Africa, Southern Asia, much of Central & South America,
Keep those blinders on, they'll protect you from unpleasant facts.