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Curis, Inc. Message Board

desert_dweller93 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 13, 2015 9:05 PM Member since: Aug 30, 2009
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  • Reply to

    When the Baker Bros. started selling

    by smelky_kid Feb 12, 2015 2:50 PM
    desert_dweller93 desert_dweller93 Feb 13, 2015 9:05 PM Flag

    A few years from now I feel like the shares I bought today at $31.50 to add to my overweight SGEN portfolio, I will be feeling the same way. My first purchases we not as low as yours, somewhere around $15 but I think this is a screaming buy at these levels. When we get the news this year from the many irons in the fire today's prices will seem like a steal IMO. GLTA and I hope I am right.

    I sold some CRIS yesterday at $2.96 and bought SGEN today at 31.50. Looks like I should have waited a few days to sell and buy but I don't measure things in days, I measure them in years, I would imagine like the Bakers do too. There are way too many potential catalysts for SGEN to not feel good about buying at these levels IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • desert_dweller93 desert_dweller93 Feb 10, 2015 11:05 PM Flag

    Just read the transcript over at Seeking Alpha and it definitely keeps my excited about the short and long term prospects of my SGEN investment. I don't post much since I don't have much to add but I have no doubt the CFO misspoke when he guided to cash of $180 million, he meant $280 million at end of year 2015. They are projecting revenue to increase by $20-30 million from Adcentris sales, royalties to increase another $10 million and they did not project any milestone or new collaboration agreements. In all his projection was revenue forecast of between $260-280 million for 2015 plus new agreements and milestones.

    As far as their expense projections, R&D $250-275; SG&A $105-115 then back out non cash of $55-60 million to arrive at net cash expenses of between $300-330, almost forgot to include another $20-25 million for cost of sales. Subtract revenue forecast (excluding new agreements) of between $260-280 million and you have cash burn of between $40 million at the most optimistic and $95 million at worst case but that doesn't include any new agreements and milestone payments. Our burn in 2015 will be minimal and less than it was in 2014 and we will end the year with at least $280 million and probably more IMO.

    GLTA and IMO another very solid quarter. These prices won't last long and for those who have shares in a traditional IRA, I strongly recommend converting them to a Roth to take advantage of potential growth in price over the next year and you won't have to pay taxes until April, 2016 on the converted shares and you can always undo it if the price doesn't explode by then. Talk to your tax advisor but it is one of the only ways Roth IRA conversions make any sense IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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