Mon, Apr 21, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 4 hrs.

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Wabash National Corp. Message Board

deshrex 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 12:52 AM Member since: Jun 16, 1998
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Total Overhaul

    by freetzwilly Apr 11, 2014 2:03 PM
    deshrex deshrex Apr 14, 2014 12:52 AM Flag

    Just to follow up on a detail, according to the ESI website, as of Dec. 31, '13, ESI long term debt is at zero. But no official '13 annual report has been filed as of today's date. The annual report is considered late by SEC standards...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Total Overhaul

    by freetzwilly Apr 11, 2014 2:03 PM
    deshrex deshrex Apr 13, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    I'm a little bit undecided on this one. On the one hand, it's not an expensive stock. The P/S is less than 1, the PE is less than 10, and as of last September, the amount of long term debt was modest enough at $60 million (Yahoo) to make BK a remote possibility. Also, the shares outstanding number at 24 million is quite modest, so that if ESI ever started a buyback it could scare the shorts who have shorted 37% of the shares (Yahoo).
    But on the other hand the shorts are winning some victories in recent days to lead on to believe that maybe all the issues related to enrollment and student debt have yet to be fully discounted. But there would have to be very serious trouble brewing on these fronts for ESI to collapse within 2 years.

    If the tuition is fair and the skills taught are genuine, then I am kind of on board with what these schools are trying to do, because otherwise our society does little to help the long term unemployed and young kids from the wrong side of the tracks who may be trying to get a wage above the lowest rungs of the service economy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    OSTK headed higher

    by sethchristensen Apr 8, 2014 11:19 AM
    deshrex deshrex Apr 10, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Well, I hold no brief for bitcoin. That's not my bag. But I would say that PB and Deep Capture won a moral victory with the recent winding up of a certain very powerful hedge fund. Bloomberg recently published a pretty damning piece on this same hedge fund.

    As far as OSTK goes, the question is what will margins be and can they keep revenues growing. The '15 Yahoo estimate of $.92 a share means margins below 2% and is for an actual decline in revenues as well. So my guess is Wall Street will continue to give the stock a hard time, but it's not very expensive, and I would go out on a limb and say it has virtually no BK risk since OSTK has no long term debt (Yahoo data).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    OSTK headed higher

    by sethchristensen Apr 8, 2014 11:19 AM
    deshrex deshrex Apr 9, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    .35 sales (Yahoo number) is really a pretty undemanding valuation, considering OSTK has no bricks and mortar. It's below WMT and TGT, and far below Wall Street chestnuts like AMZN and Tencent.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • deshrex deshrex Mar 7, 2014 1:35 AM Flag

    The debt has to do with the behavior of the controlling shareholder, rather than any operational issue. The company can't be sold or bought without the consent of this same shareholder...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Barrons is sure putting out the hit pieces on PBR.

    by mewag51 Feb 28, 2014 4:38 PM
    deshrex deshrex Mar 2, 2014 8:12 PM Flag

    Barron's is considerably to the right of DR, and that's putting the matter mildly...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Devices do not consume Fat.

    by b1e2r3n4a5r6d Feb 22, 2014 10:02 AM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 24, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    Right, it remains to be seen what people will do with their gadgets when they start to convey messages like 'no, you can't have that cupcake,' or 'no, you can't have that slice of pizza.'

    Sentiment: Hold

  • deshrex by deshrex Feb 24, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    WWAV is getting more than 10x DF's valuation. Using today's Yahoo data, on a price to sales basis, WWAV/DF = 1.96/.15 = 13.

    WWAV is doing well for itself. 2x sales is north of the valuation given to CPB, K, and GIS.

    I don't think I have yet heard milk condemned as being 'irrelevant,' but like the management was talking about on the call, DF may have to develop more White Wavey type products, like a milk based, shelf stable energy drink, to get the stock out of the doldrums.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    FORBES ARTICLE PART 4

    by xyellowdog Feb 15, 2014 10:03 AM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 16, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    Kirchoff was a casualty of the drop from $80 to $22.

    I am not as intimidated as others by the gadgets that are touted as an existential threat to WTW. Yes, WTW may take a short term hit as people are attracted by the novelty of these approaches, but the brute fact is that losing weight and keeping it off requires a life style change that can be very difficult to undertake and maintain.. The analogy to AA is not misplaced IMHO. The peer pressure system that WTW has developed over the years is effective at keeping people on the straight and narrow.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    chuga lugging n China

    by stevenwilsonhudson Feb 13, 2014 3:18 PM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 15, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    To follow up, the WSJ reports 2/12/14 that US powdered milk exports were up nearly 25% in the first 11 months of 2013.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Good Buy?

    by www_curvenus_com Feb 14, 2014 1:45 PM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 14, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    Well, Chambers is more or less brand new. I don't think he has been on the job for more than a year.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    chuga lugging n China

    by stevenwilsonhudson Feb 13, 2014 3:18 PM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 14, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Right, the CEO was saying on the call that China is putting in a bid for powdered milk. I don't think fresh milk can be shipped to China, but I could be wrong. My understanding is that this powdered milk bid by China is raising DF's costs, and squeezing an already very low margin business. But maybe DF itself could get into the business of selling powdered milk in China, if margins are better than the US fresh milk business. It's hard for DF to raise fresh milk prices because of how stores use milk as part of their retail strategy. DF stopped doing business with a major retailer out of Arkansas because their milk bid was too low for DF to make any money...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Salvage value

    by jkgino Feb 14, 2014 10:42 AM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 14, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Well, WTW is already semi-private. Artal owns a (roughly) 51% stake. So WTW won't go to another buyer unless Artal wants to sell the company. Meanwhile, what would Artal gain by owning 100% of the shares?

    It seems like this company gets knocked by every Silicon Valley meme that comes down the pike; if it's not smart phones, then it's wearable tech, and so on. But one thing that doesn't change and that WTW knows well is human nature - as in, it's hard to get people to go on diets, and to keep the weight off.

    I do think that at least for a while this stock needs to trade below 1x revenues to discount all the negatives. But we are there now (.84 of the '15 prediction as of today), so the question becomes how far below 1x revenues. I would think a valuation of .5 revenues would discount quite a bit of bad news. .5 would be the worst case scenario. For the time being, even with the bad news, analysts are still predicting 10% net income profit margins for '15, so any price to sales ratio below 1 will get us a PE below 10...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    GMCR was pulled down like DMND

    by mojoxxx30 Feb 7, 2014 7:34 PM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 11, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    Just to follow up, another relevant valuation might be PEP at 1.87 sales.

    Also, Bloomberg is reporting today that Oaktree is going to go ahead and exercise its warrants for about 4 million shares at $10 a share. This exercise will dilute the shares outstanding but gets rid of the overhead of these derivative warrant securities.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    GMCR was pulled down like DMND

    by mojoxxx30 Feb 7, 2014 7:34 PM
    deshrex deshrex Feb 11, 2014 2:42 PM Flag

    I like to start with price to sales too, but I don't know about 5x sales for DMND. K gets 1.5 sales and GIS gets 1.75 sales. I would see those as aspirational valuations for DMND at about .63 sales today.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Restructuring

    by wooglin_kai Jan 28, 2014 4:22 PM
    deshrex deshrex Jan 30, 2014 10:24 PM Flag

    I'm glad to see this refinancing of DMND debt. DMND has been spending quite a lot on interest. In the latest qtr of Oct. '13, DMND spent 6% of revenue on interest (14848/234668), a lot when most companies try to keep that number down around 1 or 2 percent. According to the 10-Q, the $225 million Oaktree portion of their debt load has a 12% interest rate, so I am assuming they will be able to bring this rate down quite a bit with the refinancing. I believe Oaktree will continue to hold warrants (well in the money) for 4 million shares.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • deshrex deshrex Jan 30, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    It's still not a value stock at over 2x revenues. I give Mr. Greenberg a salute for his piece on ADT. What a farce with the buyback etc. Like you say, shareholders will have to hope and pray ADT does not fumble the home automation ball. I'm going to keep an eye on the stock if it keeps dropping because at some point in the 20s it's going to get very interesting. The dividend will be at 3% a little under $27 (.8/.03).

    Sentiment: Hold

WNC
13.33-0.05(-0.37%)11:58 AMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.