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Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) Message Board

deshrex 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 23, 2014 8:25 PM Member since: Jun 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    SG&A out of control

    by jimjr11 Aug 4, 2014 7:26 PM
    deshrex deshrex Aug 23, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    AVP just hasn't been able to get restructurings fall to the bottom line. $.81 per share is a net margin of less than 4%. I can't find a lower P/S ratio than AVP's at .66. The cosmetic makers with luxury businesses continue to trade a much higher valuations.

    L'Oreal 3
    EL 2.65
    TUP 1.41
    REV .97
    HLF .91
    NUS .87
    AVP .66

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    raw milk will be up in Sep

    by bozot.clown Aug 13, 2014 2:52 PM
    deshrex deshrex Aug 20, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    Any insight as to what is driving the bid if Americans are drinking less milk?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • deshrex by deshrex Aug 20, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Anybody see the Guardian UK article the other day based on research that forecasts that 40% of Americans are going to develop type 2 diabetes? For some subgroups of the population, the number is going to be even higher.

    I don't think this stock is discounting a 40% diabetes rate. In fact, I don't think the stock market is making a lot of sense on this subject. If smart phones are going to carry the day, and everyone is going to lose weight using smart phone apps, then why is the predicted rate of diabetes so high?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The notes is not due until Jan 2016

    by luvmeplezz Aug 13, 2014 11:14 PM
    deshrex deshrex Aug 14, 2014 2:23 AM Flag

    I wish DNDN would say more as to why it can't refinance these notes. If anyone here has refinanced their mortgage, DNDN's case is the same principle. I would think an ambitious investment banker would make a pitch: you pay fee x and coupon y, and we can get the money for you. At any rate, I wouldn't give up hope yet. 2 or 3 more qtrs. of decent Provenge revenue could open the refinance market for DNDN...

  • deshrex deshrex Aug 12, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    From the 8/11 earnings call, the latest word is late Q3 or Q4 if the FTC approves...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    q10

    by annawitte12 Aug 12, 2014 1:58 PM
    deshrex deshrex Aug 12, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    It looks like revenues increased roughly $9 million over the previous year - $82.2 million versus $73.3 million , an increase of 12%.

  • Reply to

    EBITDA Plummeting

    by chisonmike1963 Aug 11, 2014 9:12 AM
    deshrex deshrex Aug 11, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Well DF can't afford to be running this business with any debt whatsoever. Paying it down should be their top priority, far higher, at any rate, than buying back the stock. Those statements seem like a no brainer when the net income margins are measured in a fraction of 1%. Getting rid of interest payments is one way of improving net margins. Meanwhile, who is bidding for raw milk if Americans are drinking less? Ah, the China bid...But, you know, the old saying is the cure for high prices is high prices. With raw milk prices high and corn and wheat prices low, dairy farmers would seem to have an incentive to increase the size of their herds...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Over 2x normal volume today. The buyback has continued apace, with shares outstanding now down to 530 million. It's interesting to note that over the last 5 years WU has bought back 165 million shares, reducing the share count from 695 million (Ycharts). This share count reduction has saved WU about $82 million per year on the dividend payout of $.5 per share. WU has no long term debt (Yahoo), so it hasn't been borrowing money to do the buyback. WU still gets dogged by the shorts, with about a billion dollar short position (as of May 31 '14 Yahoo), not the stuff of widows and orphans...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    bargain?

    by shavitmi Aug 4, 2014 10:21 AM
    deshrex deshrex Aug 4, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I think ESI was hoping that a sale-lease back would put cash in the coffers and help allay liquidity concerns that bankers and the market may have, since the PEAKS and RSA agreements have put a claim on some of ESI's cash and cash flow. The market is watching this business of the sales/leasebacks, the Trusts, and the covenants with the bankers very closely I would say.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    bargain?

    by shavitmi Aug 4, 2014 10:21 AM
    deshrex deshrex Aug 4, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Well, I think one of the issues with this latest July 31 8-K is that a deadline for completing a sale-leaseback transaction on some of ESI's real estate has come and gone with no action from the buyer.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Here comes 13

    by freetzwilly Jul 24, 2014 1:51 PM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 24, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    ESI now has a lower price to sales ratio than GM. For the time being, the government investigations will give free and easy victories to the shorts...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • deshrex deshrex Jul 22, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    Right, the unfortunate reality is that stores use milk as a loss leader. I actually support DF in walking away if some of these larger stores are trying to force DF to sell milk at a loss to get a contract. That $.55 estimate works out to a profit margin of just half of 1% so we know the business is not good.

    That new WSJ story - well worth reading and free - shows that the analysts and fund managers like WWAV a lot better. But WWAV's p/s ratio is 10 times higher than DF's - 1.89/.18 = 10. The loss leader dynamic inside stores that we see with milk does not seem to apply to soy milk and almond milk and so on, plus sales are increasing...

    If Chinese business men can come to the US and buy powdered milk and sell it for a profit in China, I don't understand why DF can't do the same thing, especially if the powdered business can improve on the very low margins of selling fresh milk here in the US.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Serious Question:

    by fbi4hire Jul 15, 2014 10:08 AM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 15, 2014 11:38 PM Flag

    FBI, there's no law saying doctor's can't use an approved drug or treatment for an off label indication. Please see a good essay on this subject on Wikipedia. According to Wikipedia, the FDA does not have the authority to regulate the practice of medicine. If Provenge is most efficacious in early treatment, I am sure most doctors will use it that way. The whole idea is to keep the cancer confined to the prostate. Men with non-metastatic prostate cancer can live many years...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Cancer therapy questioned

    by lenprov8 Jul 15, 2014 7:50 PM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 15, 2014 11:22 PM Flag

    Just to be clear, this NYT article is on the efficacy of androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer, not on DNDN's immuno-therapy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What the heck is wrong?

    by nquisiter Jul 14, 2014 1:12 PM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 14, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    One possibility is the stock is being heavily shorted because the shorts see a vulnerable stock under the current ownership structure.

    WTW took on heavy debt to buy the stock back when it was very high. The stock was bought back carefully to maintain Artal's majority ownership. No debt has been retired since the buyback and the dividend was eliminated. The debt probably prevents any new buyback, but even if WTW could afford to do one, think of the ramifications with Artal: if WTW buys back here now that it is cheap, and Artal does not sell shares, then Artal's ownership will increase, which it may not want. Plus Artal probably does not want to sell at this low price, and so will not allow its holdings to be bought when they are cheap. In sum, and sorry to be clunky, but Artal probably does not want two things: to increase its ownership or to sell at a low price. Artal has been working this WTW holding for something like 13 or 14 years. Until the stock decline, Artal had been doing quite well.

    We are getting pretty low in terms of valuation. We are down to a PE of 12 and a P/S pretty far below 1 now. I am saving a little powder in case we get to a PE of 10 or lower.

    Finally, the market is still on a disruption kick, and WTW is one of the companies in the crosshairs. WU would be another. Harvard just put one of its apostles of disruption from HBS on the cover of its alumni magazine.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Could bears argument be right?

    by jtl_bhc Jul 13, 2014 10:14 AM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 13, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    In general, the bears are acting like rolling over debt is a strange and alien concept, when in fact companies do it every day. DNDN doesn't have to come up with the $600 million out of cash flow. DNDN only has to roll the debt over. The debt markets have been hospitable to junk level borrowers since the beginning of the recovery in '09. To be fair to the bears, the interest burden in the last 3 years has ranged between 14 and 20 percent of revenues, which is crazily high and won't go down until revenues increase and DNDN starts to pay down debt and not just roll it over....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    WU up

    by sdruff Jul 11, 2014 1:16 PM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 11, 2014 10:34 PM Flag

    Heavy volume, no news. I hope they are keeping the buyback going. Q1 buyback was a little strange - 10 million shares all at once at the end of the Q (Ycharts).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Where's the Bottom???

    by freetzwilly Jul 11, 2014 12:35 PM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 11, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    That 27% number sounds high for ESI. A lot of loans for ESI and other for profit schools are financed by Uncle Sam, which is why the industry gets heavy oversight, and of course the government itself is not going to charge 27%. I don't have time tonight to go back through the PEAKS and RSA 2009 documents, but I don't at all remember seeing a 27% number in any of those (PEAKS would be an example of private lending).

    ESI has a very modest amount of debt on its balance sheet - just $60 million, as of Sept. 30 '13, according to Yahoo. ( The OCA ruling recently is that the PEAKS debt should be put on the balance sheet, but Wall Street has already discounted that determination.) If ESI were lending heavily to its own students, it would need to borrow money to do so, and there's no evidence of such borrowings.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Dark Pool Action

    by hansen1c Jul 4, 2014 9:45 AM
    deshrex deshrex Jul 11, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Well, dark pools are places where the 'usual suspects' go to trade. It's usually big traders trying to hide what they are doing from other big traders right? Or it could be the HFT players trying to get their half of a half of a cent per trade.

    But meanwhile today we did have a nice move up on heavy volume, though it was hardly a breakout move - it got us back to where we were on Monday. The stock has a heavy short position, so heavy volume on no news is just par for the course.

    In general, corn and wheat are pretty weak, which may lead to lower prices for cow feed (although I think there is a soy and hay component too), which could lead to dairy farmers keeping more dairy cows, and hence a lower price for raw milk at some point in the future. But that's kind of clunky logic and I doubt the market will discount lower raw milk prices unless they actually materialize. And the stock continues to discount hard times - very low margins and no revenue growth.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • deshrex deshrex Jul 5, 2014 7:45 PM Flag

    Well, as far as the accounting issues for ESI go, per the 8K of 6/24, the relevant determinations by the relevant authorities have been made, and the filing of back financial statement will proceed. So I think that issue is off the table.

    I'm not sure what the status is of the 'compliance audit' with the DOE. I think the issue here is that the DOE wants to see if actual job placement rates match up with the pitch that is made to prospective students...

    Freet, when u speak of sanctions, are u referring to the WSJ article behind the paywall? I don't find any Bloomberg article on their website that speaks of government sanctions against ESI...

    Sentiment: Hold

SHLD
34.80-0.66(-1.86%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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