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Cray Inc. Message Board

detmarlowe 55 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Oct 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    serious question for longs

    by bulltard Dec 22, 2014 3:58 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe 10 hours ago Flag


  • detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 22, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    I am sorry to hear about your troubles. I am short JNUG myself but I do not like to hear about someone in trouble during the holidays. Here is my advice:

    1. Tell your family. You will have to eventually.
    2. On whether you are addicted to gambling or trading is for you -- ask yourself these two questions (a) did you read the jnug prospectus? and (b) did you see and understand the little table they have in the prospectus which explains what happens to JNUG value with volatility? If you answered no to any of these questions, you did not do enough research to hold jnug and were probably gambling.

    This is a fund that loses value due to volatility and as such it is not a good idea to hold it over long periods of time. I suspect you were not quite aware of these factors. If that is the case you should do more research.

    I am not going to tell you to stop trading but you should definitely change your trading methods to do more research and get a better understanding.

    These direxion triple leveraged funds are traps for newbie investors. In my opinion they could be shorted or left alone, but it is not a good idea to buy them.

  • Reply to

    not liquid enouph to trade GUY

    by cowjj33 Dec 12, 2014 11:46 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 17, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    Really? Average volume is over a million shares. That is about $70 million traded per day on average. This is not liquid enough for you? Who are you, Carl Icahn?

  • Reply to

    If they did get bought out?

    by finnbogg1 Dec 14, 2014 2:55 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 17, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    It depends on the terms of the buyout offer. If it is cash, as is usually the case, the buying company will make a tender offer. A tender offer is an offer to give the shares for something else (usually cash). Your broker will tell you that you have a tender offer for so much money per share. Furthermore, your broker will give you a choice to accept the tender offer, where you will give up your shares and get the cash. So you will click on a button to accept the offer.

    In practice, once an offer is announced, the stock usually rises to the offer price. Thus, you will not have to wait for the tender offer, you will probably be able to sell your shares for the purchase price before the tender offer actually happens. Sometimes you will be able to sell your shares for a price higher than the offer, because there are always some people that are betting on a higher offer arriving.

    The tender offer is usually contingent on the purchaser getting a certain percentage of the stock. This means that if the purchaser does not get the percentage they specify, the offer fails, and you get your stock back and you do not get any money. If a tender offer fails this usually means that the offering price was not high enough, so the purchaser may make another tender offer at a higher price. Usually, the tender offer price is carefully calculated to be such that most stockholders will accept it. That is why the buyout price is usually significantly higher than the latest trading price.

    If it is a more complicated stock swap type of a deal, this would probably require voting. Your broker will tell you that there is a proxy happening and you will be able to vote your shares for or against the takeover.

  • Reply to

    Is anyone following this board?

    by joshua_the_kid Dec 12, 2014 10:00 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 12, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    I do not know. The last news I could find on this is they opened a new plant in Tennessee. That was three days ago. They wouldn't be doing that if they were in trouble.

  • Reply to

    November Revenue Number

    by jamcracker25 Dec 9, 2014 11:45 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 10, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    Well it is up sequentially and it is awesome!

  • Reply to

    What happened to the spike?

    by larry1111 Dec 5, 2014 10:34 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 5, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Feltl decided to choose this exact day to cut SYNA from strong buy to buy. That was a really puzzling decision. If it was a strong buy two days ago, why wouldn't it be a strong buy now after they hiked guidance by 20 mil? Then again feltl is not that reputable.

    In other news Stifel raised the target price to $87. Hopefully we will get more upgrades next week, as analysts get around to updating their models.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by hattoppers Dec 4, 2014 7:17 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 4, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    The article may have been responsible. It is a pro article so it must have been available to seeking alpha subscribers for a couple of days now.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by hattoppers Dec 4, 2014 7:17 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 4, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    I did not like the article at all. It does not mention the cash on the books, which at 41% of market cap makes a huge difference. It suggest that the dividend is unsustainable, which is just plain false in view of the cash the company has. It assumes that one quarter of small revenue growth means there will be no revenue growth ever again. It's basically a hit piece.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by hattoppers Dec 4, 2014 7:17 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 4, 2014 9:46 PM Flag

    When a seeking alpha hit piece appears it means someone is either short or they are trying to buy large number of shares. CCUR has almost no short interest, so it looks like someone might be trying to move in.

  • Reply to

    Gap down to 90, and trade even lower to 85

    by buyondip Dec 3, 2014 3:03 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 4, 2014 5:28 AM Flag

    They generate almost 400 million cash per quarter. This is 1.5 billion annualized. Being 4 billion in debt is not that big of a deal, considering the above. Also considering interest rates are very low. They could pay off their debt relatively quickly. But they know they could make even more money if they invest in BAW filter production, which is a monopoly gold mine.

    You say P/E is too high? Forward P/E is less than 15. Considering their growth, this is low low low. Trailing P/E does seem high but that includes a lot of one time merger costs as well as quarters without the benefit of the LSI business.

  • Reply to

    Anyone know why it is down off the highs???

    by andrew7552002 Dec 3, 2014 5:09 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 4, 2014 5:16 AM Flag

    It is not down. It closed 102.50 ah. It has never closed over 100 before. What are you talking about? And yes the earnings were good.

  • Reply to

    INVN Website & product...

    by jueche Dec 2, 2014 1:59 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Dec 3, 2014 8:28 PM Flag

    I looked through the SEC filings all the way back to july and did not see the CEO selling a single share. Sorry you are wrong. The CEO is not selling shares. What you see there are withholdings to pay tax liabilities. He gets no money from those, and he does not really have a choice about paying taxes.

    (He does have a choice to pay taxes by cash instead of by withholdings, but nobody does that because that tends to result in higher costs).

  • detmarlowe by detmarlowe Nov 14, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    Seems like they are finally getting the big influx of orders they have been talking about all for about half a year. The influx came right after the last quarter ended, so it was not reflected in the last quarter's results but it came nevertheless. This quarter's revenues can easily hit or surpass 20 million!

    Anyone considering buying or selling this company should carefully read the transcript from yesterday's conference call.

  • Reply to


    by interestedinvestor11 Nov 8, 2014 11:07 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    You can find a transcript on the seeking alpha site.

  • Reply to


    by luddyduddy Nov 10, 2014 12:42 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    He could not go into details because he did not have board approval. But from the information given, it seems that what they were planning to do was to split the social security company into separate business and sell it or spin it off.

  • Reply to

    how shorts will do?

    by drivetech2000 Nov 12, 2014 1:40 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    They will have to cover before the current quarter's report. Production of android phones is restarting after a Q3 inventory rebalance, and Apple is making as many iphones as they possibly can. The current quarter's results will certainly be better than the dour guidance they provided.

    Shorts know they have limited time to cover and they cannot wait things out. This means that any upward movement can trigger a short covering wave.

  • Reply to


    by luddyduddy Nov 10, 2014 12:42 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    If you believe that the market is always correct and knows everything, then you should stop looking at individual stocks and buy an SP500 ETF.

  • Reply to

    How is UBNT worth 12X as much as HIVE?

    by warezfreeware Nov 7, 2014 4:29 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 7, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    Last quarter UBNT made 38 million profit. Hive made a loss of 7 million. You decide how to value this.

    This was supposed to be a bad quarter for ubnt. Yet they had 16% yoy revenue growth and very solid profits. Hive is only growing slightly faster than UBNT and they are losing large amounts of money. It is not certain that hive will ever be profitable.

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