Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Alliance Fiber Optic Products Inc. Message Board

detmarlowe 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2015 9:02 PM Member since: Oct 13, 2012
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • With their special presentation and half hour sales pitch they slipped the bad news mostly unnoticed. But if you listen to the call in the 22nd minute they say that the three design wins that were supposed to start shipping this quarter did not. I was hoping the analysts would ask about these but I heard nothing.

    Of course production shipment can be delayed for variety of reasons, but it is a rather odd coincidence that all three of the orders that were supposed to start shipping this quarter were pushed back. Or it would be a very odd coincidence if the problems that caused shipments to be pushed back were independent of the actual product. Of course, if there are problems with the product it would be no coincidence at all.

  • detmarlowe detmarlowe Apr 10, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    You are right there was a little bit of internal contradiction in my recommendations. But RUSH seems to be reporting very good results nowadays, so it seems that at least currently all of america's infrastructure is being rebuilt, both rail and trucks. But I am probably going to treat RUSH as a shorter term investment than GBX. Actually for RUSH I was hoping that it would be something Berkshire Hathaway would buy as it seems like the perfect Berkshire investment and Warren has been interested in auto dealerships lately.

    There is definitely bottom feeding potential in MX, but I would wait until they catch up with their financials. They are once again late submitting their reports, their excuse being all the work they had to do to prepare the previous late reports. But the most recent report they submitted (it was for Q314, I believe) showed good revenue growth. Their business should be doing well. They are an analog circuits/sensors/power management ICs and this area has been rather hot lately. But I would not buy any new stock until they are absolutely current on their financials.

  • detmarlowe detmarlowe Apr 9, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    Ok, here are my favorite non-tech stocks thus far:

    CFI -- they make fabric for mattresses and for furniture. Good growth and valuation. Nice boring business but growing well.

    RUSHA - a sales/service dealership for large commercial trucks. Seems pretty simple, but its a fast growing business with a wide moat. Very low P/E and good growth. I think the price is low because people expect them to be hurt by the oil crash, but I do not believe that effect will be very strong.

    GBX - they make rail cars. Again low P/E, good growth. At this point they have a backlog to last them two years. Their price is low because this industry is believed to be cyclical, but there seems to also be a secular trends in their favor, such as a permanent reorientation of our transport infrastructure towards rail.

    I haven't had good luck with my stock picking on this boards since the last stock i mentioned was MX. So take my recommendations with a grain a salt. Sorry if anyone got into MX.

  • Reply to

    The more good news out of the cc

    by surferdan_1 Apr 7, 2015 11:18 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Apr 7, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    I think that is only the case when the SEC puts a regulatory circuit breaker on a stock. I do not believe this is the case for GBX presently.

  • Reply to

    So the Chinese just purchased Pirelli

    by detmarlowe Mar 23, 2015 1:24 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Mar 25, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    I know all about the Chinese JV and the aborted Apollo deal. What does that have to do with what I am saying? In fact it kind of supports my theory. If the Chinese would take extra effort to block CTB's sale to an indian company, perhaps it is because they want CTB for themselves.

  • Very strange.

  • This should be good news for CTB. If the Chinese are looking for technology and brand name (as all the analysts are saying), CTB is a very good choice. CTB has a very good name brand name and technology as it concentrates on the after market where quality is key (as opposed to the OEM market which is mostly based on price). Furthermore, CTB can be had for a fraction of the price of Goodyear or even Pirelli.

    I am not sure CTB should sell itself to a chinese company, but the purchase of Pirelli should provide some convincing evidence as to the value of CTB.

  • Good deal, bad deal? If there are any shareholders on here, would you vote for it or against it. Me I was hoping to double my money on this at least. If they can keep automotive growth rates going and fix their communication business, this could be a much higher stock.

  • Reply to

    Roth Conference

    by muskiebear63 Mar 7, 2015 7:22 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Mar 11, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    The fricking conference webcast is not available. It is grayed out on the Roth website for some reason.

  • Yesterday it was a very nice rise with high volume. Today the rise was only 2% but it was during a market that was absolutely plummeting, especially for small caps. Today's volume was almost twice the average too.

    It definitely looks like someone is accumulating shares.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by boardwalk97 Mar 2, 2015 2:40 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Mar 3, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    I love it. Well I am mad at them now because they just announced a stock offering, but generally I like them. At this point they are at the beginning of a significant growth curve. They should try to grab as much market share as possible and we will all worry about valuation later.

    I think the market is waking up to the reality that even companies perceived as box makers can have significant technological advantages. Note SMCI -- another company that used to languish because it was perceived as just making boxes. It is now flying, because the market discovered that this little box maker can grow revenues very fast while expanding margins.

  • detmarlowe detmarlowe Mar 2, 2015 6:27 PM Flag

    They said they bought it for 5.5 times trailing ebitda. This means they made about 3.6 million in ebitda last year. They did not take over any debt, and taxes are only on profits. So unless they have some monster depreciation charges, it seems like nexgen is in fact profitable.

    If you want a comparison, it looks like NXPI bought Freescale for about 15 times trailing ebitda in a deal announced about the same time. That was a widely celebrated deal which caused nxpi shares to shoot up by 17%.

  • Reply to

    Does anybody know the nexgen revenue?

    by greendog03 Mar 2, 2015 12:42 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Mar 2, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    They said in the call that they paid one times revenue and about 5.5 times EBITDA. Looks like pretty good deal for a growing tech business. Especially considering a portion of it is high margin software.

  • detmarlowe by detmarlowe Feb 26, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    They provided some supplemental information on their website. I urge anyone that is interested in shiloh to look it up. Go to investor relations and look for "supplemental information."

    Their adjusted Ebitda is growing very well. Furthermore, they finally showed us who their clients are and it appears they serve most of the industry.

  • Reply to

    Not all Semi's are created equal

    by dividendseeker Feb 24, 2015 7:43 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Feb 26, 2015 12:52 AM Flag

    ROFL, did you just call TSEM fabless? I am sure you will find that they are rather fabfull. In fact they are all fab. Their main business is fabs.

    Otherwise you have a lot to learn about semiconductors. But you are right that AVGO and SWKS have some really nice technology where they are very well defended from competition. NXPI not so much. Some of their wireless tech is very advanced but they are very vulnarable in micro-controllers and sensor hubs. Both of those are getting commoditized quickly.

  • I think it is pretty good. 10% growth is not bad for the off season. Also considering last January featured 10% growth as well.

  • Reply to

    TDDI

    by jaretwilson Feb 4, 2015 1:15 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Feb 10, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Syna's TDDI chip is already out in mass production. It is in the ZTE S6 Lux. However, they have a more advanced version of their TDDI chip coming out in the near future and they may be contracting IMOS for that one. Syna does not have their touch sensor in the iphone as of now, only the display driver. And the iphone does not use tddi.

    However, it is very possible that SYNA will sell both the display driver and touch sensor for a future iphone and use imos to test and package them.

    I also think getting SYNA business will be huge because they are way ahead with their TDDI technology and it will be very good for IMOS to get expertise in it early.

  • detmarlowe by detmarlowe Feb 5, 2015 7:45 PM Flag

    Revenues missed expectations slightly due to currency swings, but earnings still beat. The earnings would have been an absolute blowout if it wasn't for the currency swings. Furthermore, they provided very good forward guidance in their press release. Guidance was significantly above analyst expectations. This may be a 5 forward P/E stock.

  • Reply to

    What did you guys think of the conference call?

    by detmarlowe Feb 5, 2015 7:24 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Feb 5, 2015 7:36 PM Flag

    I do not really believe that you have any shares to drop like a hot potato. If you had shares you would not be hoping for the price to fall to $8. I miss the 50's too. But I think they will be making a comeback.

  • detmarlowe detmarlowe Feb 5, 2015 7:34 PM Flag

    The company is not stealing cheap shares from me. I haven't sold a share. But perhaps they are stealing cheap shares from the shorts. That would be funny.

    By the way the fact that the stock is off from the all time highs does not mean all that much. Almost every stock out there is currently off its all time highs.

AFOP
18.42+0.06(+0.33%)May 1 4:00 PMEDT