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Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Message Board

detmarlowe 64 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 14, 2014 5:23 PM Member since: Oct 13, 2012
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  • detmarlowe by detmarlowe Nov 14, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    Seems like they are finally getting the big influx of orders they have been talking about all for about half a year. The influx came right after the last quarter ended, so it was not reflected in the last quarter's results but it came nevertheless. This quarter's revenues can easily hit or surpass 20 million!

    Anyone considering buying or selling this company should carefully read the transcript from yesterday's conference call.

  • Reply to

    Info

    by interestedinvestor11 Nov 8, 2014 11:07 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    You can find a transcript on the seeking alpha site.

  • Reply to

    Bizarre

    by luddyduddy Nov 10, 2014 12:42 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    He could not go into details because he did not have board approval. But from the information given, it seems that what they were planning to do was to split the social security company into separate business and sell it or spin it off.

  • Reply to

    how shorts will do?

    by drivetech2000 Nov 12, 2014 1:40 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    They will have to cover before the current quarter's report. Production of android phones is restarting after a Q3 inventory rebalance, and Apple is making as many iphones as they possibly can. The current quarter's results will certainly be better than the dour guidance they provided.

    Shorts know they have limited time to cover and they cannot wait things out. This means that any upward movement can trigger a short covering wave.

  • Reply to

    Bizarre

    by luddyduddy Nov 10, 2014 12:42 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 12, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    If you believe that the market is always correct and knows everything, then you should stop looking at individual stocks and buy an SP500 ETF.

  • Reply to

    How is UBNT worth 12X as much as HIVE?

    by warezfreeware Nov 7, 2014 4:29 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 7, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    Last quarter UBNT made 38 million profit. Hive made a loss of 7 million. You decide how to value this.

    This was supposed to be a bad quarter for ubnt. Yet they had 16% yoy revenue growth and very solid profits. Hive is only growing slightly faster than UBNT and they are losing large amounts of money. It is not certain that hive will ever be profitable.

  • Reply to

    Buy back will happen soon...

    by baba_booyah Nov 7, 2014 9:10 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 7, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    Yeah Pera is losing hundreds of millions here. And he has plenty of cash for buybacks.

  • Reply to

    one thing for sure on guidance

    by locatedmyballs Nov 7, 2014 11:38 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 7, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    Yeah, Pera straight out admitted they were being conservative. An analyst noted that the guidance was for flat qoq and asked whether they thought both enterprise and service provider would be flat and Pera answered that he thought they would both grow but he was just being conservative on guidance.

  • This was probably due to the crisis in Ukraine. Initially I was not worried about this because sales to Ukraine and Russia are not very high. However, there obviously was a spillover effect into eastern and central europe. UBNT sales to eastern and central europe are high -- these include countries like poland, check republic, slovakia, etc.

    The issue with these countries is that they all rely on gas from Russia. All of this gas goes through pipelines through the ukraine before it reaches these countries. And now that Ukraine is run by a bunch of drunken soccer hooligans, it was widely believed that the Ukraine will not pay for their gas and will steal any gas that the Russians try to send to Europe.

    This is causing panic throughout eastern europe. The winters in europe are very cold, and if you do not have heat terrible things happen. So it seems logical that eastern europe will be spending less on internet and saving their money for a hard winter.

    However, things seem to be normalizing. Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on gas, with the EU guaranteeing payment. Hopefully things will improve in the near future to the point where businesses will continue spending money on connectivity. UBNT often benefits during hard times because their connections are much more affordable than the competition.

    Of course the growth in north and south america will continue. Even if Eastern Europe does not recover for a couple of years, growth in north and south america will overtake any negative effects in eastern europe. But I believe Eastern Europe will recover soon.

  • Reply to

    one thing for sure on guidance

    by locatedmyballs Nov 7, 2014 11:38 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 7, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    What competition? Show me where i can buy anything like airmax for close to the price?

  • Reply to

    AMKR

    by jch548 Nov 5, 2014 9:08 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Nov 5, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    I have checked it out but I do not like it. It seems to me that both SPIL and ASX have a competitive advantage over them. This year has been a banner year for OSAT with all foundries operating almost at capacity, but AMKR are not registering very high growth. Both ASX and SPIL are growing significantly faster than AMKR. Furthermore both SPIL and ASX have better margins. If a semi company is growing faster and has better margins than another, this for me means they have some kind of technological edge.

    Of course it could be that AMKR just had bad luck with clients. But it seems to me this slower growth has been persisting for quite a while.

    In this field I like ASX. It seems they have the best technology and they have a big advantage with the most advanced SiP packages.

  • Reply to

    Is there any growth in future for INVN?

    by iamforstocks Oct 29, 2014 1:40 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Oct 29, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    The end markets will grow. More smartphones will have more complex sensors. Only few of the smartphones today have 6 axis sensors. Then there will be new use cases, such as the all important indoor navigation. This will require an even more complex sensor and software which will cost significantly more.

    Then there are wearables. Then there are new TV remotes and gaming. Then there is all kind of IoT sensors. Then there is robotics.

    Growth potential is huge.

  • detmarlowe by detmarlowe Oct 29, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    We are still getting some yoy growth. True, it is much less than last quarter. But a small company that has large clients is bound to have some variability. With a new major service provider doing a trial and several others negotiating a trial, hopefully we will see a sharp up-turn in revenues soon.

  • Reply to

    Management you baffoons

    by locatedmyballs Oct 29, 2014 10:04 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Oct 29, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    That is either a large cable company or a telecom that also provides TV services. So yes, it is something like Verizon, ATT, Comcast, TimeWarner, Cox, etc.

  • Reply to

    Management you baffoons

    by locatedmyballs Oct 29, 2014 10:04 AM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Oct 29, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    It will be a benefit. Internet TV is the "over the top" TV they keep talking about. Internet TV is saturating internet connections, and there will be a need for caching solutions which is what Concurrent makes.

  • Reply to

    What's the concensus here?

    by eiretekk Oct 28, 2014 3:46 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Oct 29, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    I am holding. There will be more positive announcements now that IP TV is the new big thing.

  • detmarlowe by detmarlowe Oct 29, 2014 12:19 AM Flag

    They are starting to increase utilization, which means the extra storage and handling costs are going down. They have good growth both on revenues and earnings, and it looks growth will get even better in the future. Container requirements seem to be growing steadily and railcar demand is red hot. And this is amazingly still a 7 trailing p/e stock!

    One minor negative is they say prices are still low, but they are making decent money even with these low prices. But even the low prices will be useful, as they will hopefully chase away a lot of the less established competition.

  • detmarlowe detmarlowe Oct 28, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    There is plenty of redeeming value. The lack of profit was due to a one time inventory correction. On an ongoing basis China is very profitable for them. Furthermore, China is going to be a source of rapid growth because the Chinese are starting new models with better sensors and OIS.

    Other good things from the conference call -- (1) all the new design wins and design interest they mentioned, including the return of gaming, the start of TV remotes, and of course wearable and health devices. (2) The fact that even though everyone is talking about dual sourcing, in the past quarter all of INVN's design wins were sourced 100% by INVN. This means that while people pay lip service to dual sourcing, it probably does not work in practice with a part as complex as a six axis sensor. (3) The fact that they confirmed their fy2015 revenue growth estimate.

    What really #$%$ me off was (1) why did they build all this extra inventory of old model chips???? and (2) why did they not pre-announce this inventory issue??? Like Warren Buffet I want bad news delivered immediately.

  • Reply to

    Analyst reaction

    by detmarlowe Oct 24, 2014 1:14 PM
    detmarlowe detmarlowe Oct 24, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    New price targets and ratings:
    JP Morgan - $86; Overweight
    Serne Agee - $90; Buy
    Cowen - $90; Outperform
    Feltl - $90; Strong Buy
    Imperial Capital - $80; Outperform.

    This is just what my brokers news feed picked up. There may be others.

    As you can see all buy ratings or better and all have price targets significantly higher than present price.

  • detmarlowe by detmarlowe Oct 24, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Was because of Synaptics. But there is a big difference between SYNA and INVN. INVN will have the benefit from the iphone production from their entire 3rd calendar quarter. That is not technically true for Syna. Syna got the iphone business through their Renesas acquisition, and that acquisition closed on the last day of calendar Q3. So their Q3 numbers had no iphone in them, and suffered from Samsung weakness. Their outlook should have benefited from iphone sales, but as they just got the renesas business they are conservative on their outlook for it. Of course SYNA will still get the benefit of 3Q iphone sales as they now own all of Renesas SP, but that is not something they could report on their 3Q numbers.

    So I think INVN results will be significantly better than SYNA. Of course I own SYNA too, but SYNA are very well positioned for the long term so I am not too worried about them either.

GRPN
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