Here's the summary:
The HCV franchise has transformed Gilead (GILD) in the past two years from a solid mid-tier biopharma company into a pharma giant with a market cap rivaling Merck and Pfizer.
The rapid growth, however, is organically unsustainable and earnings decreases are likely within 4-5 years.
To maintain its trajectory to become the world’s largest market cap pharmaceutical company, Gilead is likely looking for another transformative acquisition, perhaps a sizeable one.
While 2015 would be a better time for an acquisition, the current M&A frenzy may drive GILD to an earlier acquisition since companies of interest may no longer be available.
Some acquisition targets include Bristol-Myers-Squibb (BMY), Regeneron (REGN), Pharmacyclics (PCYC), Incyte (INCY), Intercept (ICTP), and Alnylam (ALNY)."
I would hope that GILD would NEVER even think about buying BMY.
Replace the word oversold above with overbought.
There are plenty of examples of "death spiral" stocks staying oversold for long periods of time.
YUP, BoDs vote on stock splits, but in order to do one they need to have available shares to accomplish the task. It is shareholders that must authorize an increase in the number of shares.
So I have a question for you: GILD has split 5 times over the last 12 years. EVERY TIME it split in the past, EVERY TIME, it split after showing that it could hold $80. Why not this time?
Give it time.
I challenge you to find ANY RSI oversold stock, ANY STOCK EVER, that has stayed that way for 2 months.
GILD won't be the first.
In general I agree with you. I still have most of the GILD I bought 11 years ago at a split adjusted price of about $7/share.
However the question was "why would someone want to short GILD?"
The answer is because technicals may be saying that it's about to fall.
I was answering the question.
Besides, if one had sold when ti was overbought and bought at the 50 each time it hit those levels over the last two years -- even couting taxes and brokerage fees one would still have about 30-40 percent more than a buy and hold strategy would have yielded.
No stock is a "buy and never sell." Not one of 'em.
we exchanged a few comments about RSI on another thread, but you never responded to me.
Here they are again
"Right, : "charts tell past performance".
Right: "they are not indicators to PREDICT the future performance" " but
They are indicators used by professional institutional investors and their algorithms to find limits, reversal etc.... and help for the decision to sell / buy large quantities at a given time."
"Right: "they are not indicators to PREDICT the future performance"
"They are indicators used by professional institutional investors and their algorithms to find limits, reversal etc"
It appears that you are contradicting yourself.
Does, "find limits, reversals" mean predict them?? If not, what does it mean?"
I'll be awaiting your response.
and yet my "technical" analysis has PERFECTLY predicted when to sell GILD over the last two years..
He shoots, and ohhhh, it's an air ball!
Absent adding 25-50 billion in sales (and it ain't doing that unless it buys another blockbuster drug from somebody), it's not going to double or triple from here anytime soon.
Yeah I do think that AMA could justify a nonstop. As I said in my original post, i flew the DAL/AMA/DEN and DEN/AMA/DAL route a bunch (maybe 35) of times over the last few years. Most times a hundred or so pax got on or off in AMA. More than a few times the flight arrived at AMA from DEN or left AMA headed tor DEN full. That tells me that they could have sold more seats sans DAL passengers.
I'd bet that AMA could produce a minimum 77% load factor on two flights a day.
Incidentally, the DAL/OKC/DEN and DAL/TUL/DEN routings are still available.
It's purely technical. I'm not short, but it IS overbought, and over the last two years it has sold off EVERY TIME after becoming overbought -- mostly to or thru the 50 day.
July '14 $5
+ Jan '14 $8
+Dec '13 $7
+Nov '13 $10
+Sep '13 $5
+July '13 $8
+ May '13 $5
+Apr '13 $6
+ Mar '13 $4
+Oct '12 $4
Damn, you're right. You couldn't have 100% more if you had sold every time it got overbought over the last 2 years. It's only 62% better.
" This stock is a ONCE in a life time chance to become Rich!! "
You're a bit late to get rich on GILD. Now if you had bought GILD in 2003 at a split adjusted price of $7 (I did) you'd be up 1400+% and you might be rich, or maybe you could have bought REGN 5 years ago and been up 1500% and you might be rich.
You've missed your once in a lifetime chance to get rich on GIL:D