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Cirrus Logic Inc. Message Board

dgalbers 23 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Oct 30, 2006
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  • It means that M. Lawrie having made his millions finally admits defeat.

    Several years into the "transformation" it hasn't worked and CSC is firmly and securely stuck in the mud---up to all axles.

    Lawrie can't get the cloud, big data, or cyber to launch and he can't get NPS winning new contracts.

    That he is looking to Bain Capital (of Mitt Romney fame) suggests that he is looking at Private Equity (PE) companies that will buy all of CSC, take a meat axe to the remaining staff and benefits and then carve up the pieces into tasty morsels to be sold off to CSC's competitors.

    The only remaining question is how much can Lawrie get?
    Value Line and others have a 3 to 5 year target price of $80 to $90, but NO PE company will pay that much (they would lose their premium for buying CSC). The stock bounced up to $60 and then fell back. Is $60 the maximum enabling the PE company to possibly realize a $20 to $30 per share profit or 33% to 50%). That sounds about right.

    Plus Lawries is NOT going to spin off NPS now and if ever there was a company interested in buying CSC now is the time for them to come forward. If no one does and the PE's aren't interested in an LBO, that tells you Lawrieis on his own (probably why he wasn't seriously considered for CEO at Microsoft).

    All he has done is made a huge mess of everything and ruins people's careers, live, and retirement.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I see IBM buying CSC for $112 a share

    by davidsonisaackson Sep 13, 2014 9:49 AM
    dgalbers dgalbers Sep 19, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    Value Line and other place an Intrinsic Value of between $65 and $90 a share.

    With Value Line it is the 3 to 5 year target price, so if CSC is today within a stone's throw of the 3 to 5 year target price, what does that tell you about the sustainability of the current price and likely direction of the future price?

    So if IBM or Accenture were to buy CSC (which I believe they are not---at least not at these price levels), why not wait until the CSC stock price drops to $50 or below $50? With 145 million shares outstanding, every $1 drop in price is a savings of $145 million.

    Moreover, what is the compelling reason for anyone to buy CSC?
    1. Proprietary products or services?
    2. Patents?
    3. Highly lucrative contracts?
    4. Recent or pending contract awards?
    5. Highly skilled and specialized workforce?
    6. Reputation for processes that produce products and services on time and within budget?
    7. The company is at attractive valuation?
    8. Penetration or presence in markets and countries with high (any) growth potential?

    Seems to me that the reasons FOR buying CSC are 0 for 9.

    Now there is always the surprise factor.

    I have seen companies bought out where insiders were selling days before the takeover was announced. With CSC, M. Lawrie stopped selling (so far) on Aug 28. May be the price was too low and he wash't going to make the fattest profit possible or he could be working on a deal.

    With CSC committed to moving the workforce overseas, I think it would be at least several years before Accenture would consider a buyout. Why not wait and see how successful Lawrie is?

    It is telling that Lawrie took himself out of the running or was excluded from consideration for the revamping of Microsoft. Wonder what would happen to the CSC transformation if Lawrie stepped down?

    However, I am holding the stock. Bought back in at $60 figuring after the post earning conference call all the bloodletting had occurred. Unfortunately the price still appears to be weak.

  • Reply to

    Next dividend meeting?

    by secondstagelensman Sep 16, 2014 10:41 AM
    dgalbers dgalbers Sep 17, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    Well since things happen quarterly, count on three of your fingers and it would seem to be October around the 13th or 14th. Bet the company fiscal calendar means that the quarters always end in the same months and right around the same date every quarter and likewise for the dividend.

  • Received brochure from CSC the other day stating:
    "Opportunity to Access Your Pension Benefit Now"
    "Action Needed"
    "Between September 22 and November 7, 2014"

    Brochure provides 3 choices.
    1. Take a Lump Sum Now --- NO mention of tax consequences.
    2. Begin Annuity Payment Now
    3. Wait to Take Your Pension Benefit at Retirement Age

    Since I was laid off from CSC almost a year ago and am just barely vested in the pension I had already begun to investigate my options.

    ANYONE who is less than 59 and 1/2 that takes a lump sum or annuity payment that is NOT rolled over into an IRA has to pay federal and state taxes (no surprise there), BUT also has to pay the 10 percent penalty for early withdrawal.

    Seems to me the brochure is quite deceptive.

    I called just to be certain I was on the correct page and the representative said CSC has over 40 pension plans (probably due to mergers and acquisitions) associated with the company. So I figure the latest M. Lawrie "cost takeout" is too get out from under as much of its pension liability as possible as soon as possible.

    By the way Lawrie sold stock right up to the conference call. then stopped when the price collapsed and has now started selling since / when the price gets to $60 or above.

  • Reply to

    Internal Revenue Service

    by retiredexaon Sep 8, 2014 8:12 AM
    dgalbers dgalbers Sep 9, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    I don't know, but I think CSC lost a great deal, if not all the work to the likes of Northrop Grumman and some smaller companies. Even the IRS couldn't tolerate the CSC transformation.

  • CSC seems to be outsourcing work that requires the latest technical expertise to companies like AT&T, IBM, EMC, VMWare, Hewlett-Packard; & buying small companies like ServiceMesh; has decided it doesn't want to go after Government work where it would be the prime (management expertise needed).

    The Big Data, cloud, and cyber appear to be growing intermittently.
    The government is holding just about all new contract awards.
    CSC is losing work to recompetes.
    Its moving the work and jobs to "Low cost locations" meaning India and Louisiana.
    Commercial is moving - much
    Consulting has crashed.
    NPS is contracting.

    So what happens next?

    In its present state CSC is not a $90 stock or an $80 or even $50 stock.
    If this persists for more than say two quarters AND have economic growth pick up and CSC will be headed to the boneyard.

    Am I missing something here?
    Is there analytical, objective, empirical data for unbounded optimism or even hope?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • dgalbers dgalbers Aug 8, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Sorry dropped a "0" that should have been 12,000 share in 110 trades or about 109 shares per trade.
    I guess Lawrie didn't want to alert anyone to what he was doing, so he did a lot of little trades in order to fly under the radar of most people.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Well, whew!
    At least the insider like Lawrie escaped with his bag of cash.
    I was worried he was going to be replaced by some low wage worker in India or Louisiana.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    CSC stock is a buy today !

    by davidsonisaackson Aug 8, 2014 9:44 AM
    dgalbers dgalbers Aug 8, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    I meant support not resistance.
    Still has knifed through:
    $61.07
    $59.94
    $58.34
    and heading lower.
    Perhaps much, much, much lower.

    When it gets down to $45 yet again (or may be even $28) that is when the vultures MIGHT start circling again. Then it is a real BUY.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    CSC stock is a buy today !

    by davidsonisaackson Aug 8, 2014 9:44 AM
    dgalbers dgalbers Aug 8, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    You mean buy the collapse!

    Plunging right through NASDAQ Stock Consultant resistance price levels.
    It might be best to wait a couple of days to let the dust settle.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Lawrie and the CFO kept repeating the same numbers over and over and over. Mentioned GBS or GIS book to bill ratio is 1.1 Finally got around to mentioning that NPS's book to bill rate fell from 0.6 to 0.3. But that's because its "lumpy". So the 1.1 isn't "lumpy."

    Lawrie was back touting cyber, big data, and the cloud and saying that healthcare grew. But these aren't big enough or growing fast enough to save CSC.

    They said the strategy is to move 70 percent of the work (if not the jobs) off shore. It was mentioned that IBM and Accenture did this 10 years ago.

    The consulting business which contracted 10 percent is going down the tubes and Lawrie fired the person in charge. Any one know who it was?

    They mentioned that they are now making money from HMS. I guess they'll never recover the billions lost.
    Whatever meager, positive numbers they cited seem to have occurred on because of a lower tax rate from accounting changes pertaining to pensions an inter-compnay transfers.

    The economy is growing at 2 percent and may be increasing to 4 percent. CSC is growing at all which means it is dramatically falling behind.

    Every time you turnaround CSC making a deal with some other company---Amazon, IBM, AT&T.
    But if CSC was a crackerjack company they wouldn't be making any deal with any of these companies because CSC would have its own talent on board to compete.

    What a complete and absolute mess.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Watch out for Support Level $61.07

    by dgalbers Aug 7, 2014 1:57 PM
    dgalbers dgalbers Aug 7, 2014 8:08 PM Flag

    After market trading has CSC stock price at $60/. Oh Oh!

  • NASDAQ Stock Consultant cites CSC as:
    Bullish 55 percent
    Bearish 45 percent

    Trade Quality as
    Upside: 55 percent - Poor
    Downside: 30 percent - Poor

    Stock price resistance above levels are at:
    $62.64
    $63.69
    $64.85

    Stock price support levels are at:
    $61.07
    $59.94
    $58.34
    $55.92
    $53.67

    So CSC has to get through $64.85 before it has a possibility of getting to $63.69 and then has to get through $63.69 on its way to $64.85.

    And if CSC falls below $61.07 it might not stop falling until it gets to $59.94 and if it breaks through $59.94, next up is $58.34.

    Presently at this writing (08/07/2014 2:00PM) CSC is at $61.64.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • In all of 2014 there have been a total of 131 insider trades by 4 insiders of 44,541 shares netting them almost $3 million. Selling at an average price of $62.78
    Every single trade has been a: SELL, SELL, SELL.

    Lawrie leads the pack with 110 trades of 1,200 shares for proceeds of $763,568 at an average price of $63.63.
    Followed by Deckelman with 18 trades of 15,554 shares for proceeds of $967,073 at an average price of $62.18.
    Next up is Colan with 2 trades of 14,460 shares netting him $904,654 at an average price of $62.56
    Last but not least is Zolet who has only 1 trade of 2,527 shares for proceeds of $160,950 at an average price of $63.69.

    Seems like they all read the Barron's article that suggested a target price of $65 and this past weekend recommended that investors take profits. The article also observed that cost cutting only takes you so far and what is needed is sales growth.

    Additionally Zacks has a SELL rating and has a estimated Positive Earning Surprise of ).00%
    Todays earnings results are NOT going to be good!!
    Doesn't seem that the transformation is going all that well either.
    IS Lawrie's exit on the horizon?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Guess reality has set in prior to earning announcement on August 7th.

    I saw no real reason for the run up.
    Will CSC announce spin off of NPS and one-time dividend to shareholders or will CSC management just keep the money?
    If they keep the money just one more admission of CSC's current fragile financial state.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • I talked to several people (all are in NPS) who were assigned to projects and to people who are in different management levels.

    They all seem to be very, very busy assigned to proposals.
    I don't what has changed in the government.
    I haven't seen a great deal of contract award or issuance of RFPs.
    But the people I have contact with are working on proposals.

    CSC is scheduled to announce earnings on Aug 4th.
    It seems like history is repeating itself.
    There is this ramp up in the stock price prior to the announcement, then the announcement is that CSC fell short and the stock collapses. There has been the other scenario where the stock price just sits there before the announcement and if the announcement is good the stock price rises.

    It is hard to believe that Lawrie will "whiff" on earnings yet again, but who knows.
    Stock price has been on a steady march higher since its May 9th open of $58.03
    Up almost 12 percent in 13 weeks! That seems unsustainable.
    May be CSC is going to spin off NPS as the Barron's article suggested they might.
    That would unlock some value for CSC shareholders, but it would lop off one-third of CSC's revenue.
    Lawrie would have to be extremely confident and have some basis that the incubators were actually taking off and the commercial was actually recovering to jettison a third of the company. Even if CSC kept a position in the spin off, the spin off would have to do well or it would all be for naught.
    Well only a few more days to wait!

  • Reply to

    CSC Climbing Ever Higher! Why?

    by dgalbers Jul 24, 2014 2:51 PM
    dgalbers dgalbers Jul 28, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Well, for ALL of 2014, its been SELL, SELL, SELL by insiders.

    Here's the summary:
    Name Title Shares Ave Price Total Proceeds
    LAWRIE JOHN M director officer (President and CEO) 8,000 $63.80 $510,406
    Zolet David W officer (Exec VP & GM NPS) 2,527 $64.00 $160,950
    DECKELMAN W L JR officer (Exec VP and General Counsel) 15,554 $62.18 $967,074
    Colan Thomas officer (VP, PAO and Controller) 14,460 $62.56 $904,654

    Seems like they can't sell CSC stock fast enough!
    What do they know that we won't know until Aug. 4th at the next earning information release!?

    Barron's StockGrader investment tool rates CSC at 49.2 - SELL

  • I check Quicken / Intuit and CSC is now officially OVERVALUED once it got above $63 and change.
    NASDAQ Stock Consultant shows 80 percent chance of DOWNSIDE movement.

    Now to be fair (even though I don't want to be)
    Value Line has a 2 - Timeliness rank but still has a 3 to 5 year target price of $50 to $75
    Morningstar gives CSC 3 out of 5 stars (NOTE: There are extremely few stocks with 5 stars now a days).
    It gives a Fair Value estimate of $57 and suggests selling at $88.35! (When is it ever going to get there?!

    Meanwhile CEO John (Mike) Lawrie is SELLING AND every insider has been doing nothing but SELLING in 2014.

    Next earnings report is cited as August 4th.
    Wonder if Lawrie is going to unveil a radical destruction of the pension?
    Or perhaps to unlock the true value of CSC a spin off of NPS!

    Stay tuned I am sure its going to be exciting even if the employees and shareholders don't like it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CSC and IRS - Perfect together

    by retiredexaon Jul 22, 2014 9:13 PM
    dgalbers dgalbers Jul 24, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Yes CSC WAS a government contractor for the IRS. In the last couple of years I was there I heard little about the IRS and project managers that were assigned to the IRS were turning up at CSC' healthcare initiative for the Center of Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) in Columbia, MD.

    It seemed to me that Northrup Grumman was out to corner the market with the IRS and they may have succeeded, but don't know for sure.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Those doggone amps

    by resetignore2 Jul 24, 2014 12:44 AM
    dgalbers dgalbers Jul 24, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    I think Jason has gotten too political.
    Talking out of all sides of his mouth.
    It seems that Apple, under Tim Cook, is concerned about cost; where, under Steve Jobs, Apple was concerned about making insanely great products.
    Under Jobs CRUS could spend money on R&D and know that Apple would buy the product and CRUS would make money. Now CRUS realizes a huge expenditure might come up empty.
    On the other hand CRUS shouldn't be venturing off unless Apple gives them reason to aka specifications Apple wants CRUS to meet or exceed.

    It also seems obviously that the energy efficient lighting is NEVER going to be a HUGE money maker.

CRUS
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