I think for prices to be justified over .5, and over the next few years, we would have to see some amazing growth, dilution considered. Each penny being 4.5 m in earnings. But a two-three bagger over a few years time is not so bad @ between .15 to .25 share price to penny earned.
I think your numbers are fairly realistic. This is roughly in line, and likely better than projections I rendered. While old investments are what they are, I would consider these projections, if realized, as some potential impressive gains in terms of any new investment, especially at these prices.
AERT might not reach a 25 PE arguably, or may fail at some turn, but on the other side of possibilities, with any huge surge, a PE over 25 can also be very possible if investor excitement so warranted. That is, if future growth looked so apparent that the share price jumps ahead to future perceived levels that may seem imminent for (any) company entering a big growth phase. Perhaps your projections may provide something of a baseline if the stock gets ahead of itself. Of course projections have to be adaptive. The case right now appears fairly reasonable, but setbacks can occur. Or, the big box push to Home Depot (and others?), new efficiencies, and other corporate maneuvering, or new products can open up new levels.
The bottom line for me, and just an opinion, is that barring the real possibility of a setback, the down side looks limited while the upside seems much more open. Tim made some sort of comment on the call that makes me think Q1 is not going to be a blowout, but when Q2 comes in I'm thinking we will have a pretty good idea of the course the company is heading. Can AERT get and stay in positive territory? I think we will see if they finally have it all together soon.
Reports coming up now that some of the bigger Baaken producers like Whiting and Continental are talking big pull backs in new production. This is what I was looking for in my last post, after the lifting of the export ban. It appears the US has now taken the role of swing producer. I think maybe the meeting in Texas may have been the catalyst, where SA officially declared its intentions toward shale.
Shale has realized, I think, that we have to make a real show of a pullback to get the price back up. Once it is, they can start back. Meantime I hope we TPLM can hang in there while the biggest producers set the tone.
I see the same. MS at 7,13,18, 23, etc. Seems impressive for no longer than we have been seeing MS at HD online. A little odd though, unless I missed it, I did not see Trex show up until page 10 of the results. Trex being an "in store brand".
Not sure what to make of that but I hope that is an actual indication of MS selling that much better than Trex. Maybe pricing, and quality perceived to be better? This may be a good measure. It will be interesting to see if MS takes more of the top slots as it gets to where it has been available over more time.
Maybe the most interesting thought is if MS is ranking this high among top sellers this early, would that be a possible early indicator of a major bump in sales? Although perhaps more likely in qtr 1 reports than the coming year ending report.
When this happens, and I have noticed this a few times, I think it could be a case of best opportunities. My theory is someone holds a lot of AERT shares and keeps watching other stocks fly up, as we were on a 3 day market run-up. They see AERT just sitting there and are so desperate for a little extra cash to buy some more of a stock they are watching climb that they just sell off whatever they think they need.
If this is the case, I wish they would make a good profit and then come back to AERT. We have got to get some earnings excitement, and ultimately back in the majors, and I think then we can share in those positive upturns in the market.