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Advent Software, Inc. Message Board

dhdhoora 71 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 33 minutes ago Member since: Feb 28, 2006
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  • Reply to

    On the strategic options

    by culleraa 4 hours ago
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 1 hour 33 minutes ago Flag

    Digging a little deeper, I see that T2 Biosystems has received FDA approval on a sepsis test. They have big time investors behind them and they claim that their test will essentially make the NanoSphere test obsolete. Their claim is based upon not requiring a blood culture and much faster response time. While the NanoSphere assay has better selectivity and sensitivity -- T2 claims that there is good enough given the time to results improvement. I notice that the last NanoSphere investor presentation does not give specific information as to the time-to-results for the sepsis assay. So, are the T2 people correct? Sepsis assay was the goodie that really hooked me on NanoSphere. Obviousy, I'm not an expert. Appreciate any insight into the competition with T2.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    On the strategic options

    by culleraa 4 hours ago
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 2 hours 8 minutes ago Flag

    culleraa.. Well wishful thinking and I hope you're right. Sadly, IMHO, the only way that NanoSphere is going to find a buyer is if there is really something special in their 'next gen' gizmos. Clearly, they are at best 'treading water' with current gizmo and assays and leadership team. Look at the placements:
    Q4 -2013 35
    Q1 -2014 48 (yea!!)
    Q2- 2014 37
    Q3 - 2014 30

    So more downward revisions coming and of course, more losses. New equity capital is simply prolonging the agony unless there is something under the covers. Of course, you could make the case that the fragile condition of NanoSphere itself is causing much of the market rejection of their products. Quite possibly. In any case, it will take real cash and a flush of leadership to keep this turkey out of the Thanksgiving pot. Just wait for the tax loss selling...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    What is going on?

    by ohioinvestor100 3 hours ago
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 2 hours 38 minutes ago Flag

    That's a great question. I hold about 6 small cap E&P names and track about 30 across the E&P industry. Day after day after day $AMZG is at the absolute bottom of the list. Currently down 7% today while only other name on my list is in the red. Absolutely amazing. The chart since the first of August is incomprehensible for a company that has a decent story -- heck we're now trading at almost a 60% discount to enterprise value. This is way way more than just the 'price of oil' smackdown. I now have to believe this is a serious, orchestrated attempt to trash the SP for nefarious reasons. Not simply short driven selling -- they do not have enough of the float -- unless there is a ton 'naked short'. So, beyond me and it certainly doesn't help the IR does not respond to any of us. Soon, we'll be hit with tax loss selling -- alas, my $AMZG is in a qualified account... rats...

    ATVB
    Don

  • Reply to

    ShoreTel Receives Buyout

    by dhdhoora Oct 20, 2014 11:24 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 21, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    pmk -- agree that the offer is lame -- but at least they got asked to dance. Poor 8x8 sits on the sidelines while all the other lovely ladies are having fun. We had a real great PR piece today and the stock is selling off in spite of the PR and a strong market. The Russel 2000 is up nicely and we are now off 3%. Not a day trader or even a swing trader, but our move against the market and being under-loved is troubling. As you know I've been on board 8x8 for many years -- but honestly am more discouraged than I have been at any time during my tenure of ownership.

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    I like this company and stock

    by bowersm87 Oct 10, 2014 2:14 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 21, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    bigmalanga...
    I have been investing for 40 years and currently hold 5 small cap E&P names and 3 refiners. I know its fashionable to attack -- but let's not go there...

    I track about 30 Oil names and must disagree with your assessment that $AMZG is 'identical' in performance to the sector. Looking at the 30 day chart -- yes $AMZG has participated in the oil sell off debacle. But looking out 6 or 12 months, $AMZG is well below its peers. So much so that the investor presentation on the site goes out of its way to point out that $AMZG is significantly undervalued. I agree with you and with them.

    But my question remains, 'why is this so under-valued'? I hope to be able to build a thesis that would support significant 'doubling down' etc. Doesn't seem like a foolish question to ask.

    All the very best,
    Don

  • ShoreTel -- located just across town from 8x8 - has received a buyout offer from Mitel. For those that don't know the space, ShoreTel has products and services in both the premise PBX and cloud mid and upper markets. Their cloud biz is a direct competitor to 8x8. I wondered a couple of years ago when they purchased their cloud biz from a small NYC startup -- why they didn't dance with 8x8. Anyway, buyout offer for $SHOR is somewhat modest if approved -- looks like a

  • Reply to

    I like this company and stock

    by bowersm87 Oct 10, 2014 2:14 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 17, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    I like the stock also -- but am really struggling with why it is so under-performing against its small cap Bakken peers. I've been investing in small cap E&P in the Bakken for more than 3 years with decent success -- but I'm down almost 50% on $AMZG. Yes, small cap E&Ps have been crucified in the past month, and the market is throwing $AMZG out with the bathwater because of lower oil prices. But, can't some reasonable investors realize that the D&C costs for American Eagle are very favorable? Yes, I know about the farm out agreements -- but most of those are behind us now. So why is this so totally under loved? Hey, even YH finance has the wrong website address for the company. What is wrong with this outfit?

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This new investor is a huge potential of event!

    by ugt_92251 Oct 14, 2014 7:07 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 14, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    ugt & others... The $21M is absolutely needed to keep SYN-004 and SYN-010 programs going. And let's all hope that the cdiff deal continues to be the mega blockbuster. That said, AF and company cost us the opportunity to do the financing on far more favorable terms. If the package had been based on a SP of $2.70 vs the now pathetic $1.40, we would have had financing costs reduced by almost 50%. As it is now, we're looking at some 38% dilution from the package. Necessary but morally wrong. Also, couldn't the financing waited until we were at least a little bit improved from the almost 50% slaughter in the past 6 weeks? Finally, interesting that none of the proceeds are targeted to the P3 program for Trimesta. That would indicate that the study is going to continue to be funded via the grant route at UCLA or that a partner is in the wings. Clearly Synthetic does not the the capital to do P3 Trimesta by itself. So, good news but questions remain...

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Next steps for SYN 004 and for SYN 010

    by galaberge Oct 11, 2014 6:51 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 12, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    I am long and strong SYN but am wondering about SYN-004 and SYN-010. I've bumped into a couple of articles and videos -- CNBC had one last Friday -- on a room cleaning robot that uses ultra violet rays to clean the rooms, and everything it sees, of the presence of infectious bad guys. Specially called out was c-diff. 200 plus hospitals are using the rigs and they report dramatic reduction in c-diff. So, I'm questioning if the c-diff opportunity is really going to be as big as we all hope it is when we finally start people popping SYN-004 sometime late 2016?

    As far as SYN-010 -- lots of competition. I also hold Synergy Pharmaceuticals ($SGYP) which is in a late stage trials for CIS and IBS-C. They are using a different strategy -- an natural agonist -- uroguanylin -- to get the gastro system to clean itself up... So, they are at least 1 to 2 yrs ahead of SYN-010 -- not to mention the stuff that is already out there. Not dissing the SYN strategy -- but the early markets may not be the slam dunk that we are all expecting. That said, $SYN is the second largest holding in my portfolio of 38 names... ($AAPL is # 1...)

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Soros bought 58k for 1.58 a pop

    by budagod2004 Oct 11, 2014 8:36 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 11, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    I speculate that George Soros probably would not recognize NanoSphere if you mentioned the name to him. He certainly is not wasting any time worrying about a $91K investment -- how silly. I guess that some of his staff is nibbling at shares as part of a highly-speculative basket of biotech wana-bees. IMHO of course.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Wow are we screwed?

    by nboy1415 Oct 8, 2014 1:24 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 8, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    When you're posting to a specific references to another post, it would be great for EVERYONE to start the post with naming the reference. Often, another reply will jump in the chain and your post will not necessarily be immediately underneath the poster to whom you are addressing the comments...

    Thanks,
    Don

  • Reply to

    What's going on?

    by mlbmets2475 Oct 7, 2014 2:11 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 7, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    I'm not totally in love with the name -- having been crucified with another tester --$NSPH. BUT, I did buy 1/3 more shares today. If their test actually works and they can get distribution, then we're looking at a 3 to 5 bagger IMHO. Also, while this is currently a 'one trick pony' - the company is working on the inverse of the negative test for appendicitis. I actually think that this will do a lot better in the market -- simply because of typical behavior. In any case I suspect we'll get FDA approval around EOY or early next year and this phase of the the shorts eating our short will be behind us. But, I hope that nobody has been setting stop loss orders -- just playing into the manipulation. If ya invest in small cap biotech -- the very last thing you want to do is stop loss. If ya can't stand the heat, then better to get out of the kitchen and go with big pharma or big biotech.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Stay away from sand - glut coming

    by bridgejumper08 Oct 3, 2014 8:34 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 7, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Guys -- thanks to bridgejumper08 -- we've actually had a great thread. Sometimes he uninformed or short pumper needs help...

    Now, let's hope that the market finally catches up with the idea that the frac sand world is not coming to an end...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Stay away from sand - glut coming

    by bridgejumper08 Oct 3, 2014 8:34 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 6, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    If you check out the balance sheet, you will see that their quarterly reports for 'inventory' in recent quarters shows between $3M and $16M against quarterly sales several times that. So, me thinks that the 'piles of sand' are simply buffer of product feeding the logistics channel.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Stay away from sand - glut coming

    by bridgejumper08 Oct 3, 2014 8:34 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 3, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Wow -- you are really an investment guru! Three points -- over 75% of $HCLP production is in LONG TERM TAKE OR PAY contracts -- most 5 years. So a lot of very smart service companies really messed up on your sand box analysis. Second, fracking is obviously going away because we're swimming in oil with beaches of frack sand around the pool. Hmmm. $HCLP does not inventory the stuff so it can easily adjust production to meet marginal demand. This will dampen top line revenue, but should not put the company under any meaningful stress. Sadly, though you are right about one thing, most 'investor' lemmings spend way too much time in the sand box not using their heads other than as a receptacle for sun screen...

  • Reply to

    Congrats to us longs.

    by abatulis Oct 2, 2014 4:07 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 3, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Yes, but it's only 2 for a $1 -- what a buy! --Not... I've speculated on lot's of companies -- especially biotechs -- but I've never seen a company at the revenue generation stage screw up as badly as $NSPH. Gonna be a mighty fine tax loss at EOY. No use selling now. And, who knows -- hope springs eternal. But, alas, 'hope' is not an investing strategy me thinks...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Super Team..

    by sbl1010 Oct 2, 2014 10:09 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 2, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Just looked at the 9/29 presentation. OK, why is $AMZG so undervalued to its peers? Yes, should be over $5 at this time -- even with the sell-off in oil. So, why doesn't the 33% haircut in one month?
    ATVB
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 2, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    bobwins...

    With all due respect, it's probably time for you to abandon the short side of the street. I'm horribly frustrated with ERII management, but I still believe that they still have too many chances at bat to entirely fail. Looking at the balance sheet, the have as of 6/14 approx $83M in cash and fixed assets against a market cap today of $181M. That does not strike me as a company that will end up in BK. When I purchased shares -- I'm way underwater, I planned on holding this for 2 or 3 years and then seeing what the heck we're dealing with. Obviously, I could have chosen a better entry point. But if the have anything at all in the O&G space, a new magic material, or rejuvenation in the desal markets, the company will way more than survive. We're at an inflection point in small caps today -- hopefully the worst is over.. Don't bet the farm on a $ERII short or even short term trade IHMO.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    CEO Dr. Joseph Kim was featured on CNBC

    by dhcabinetry Oct 2, 2014 8:00 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Oct 2, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Actually -- I think the interview was 'off the charts'! I've been following $INO for over a year and this explanation provide a great deal of clarity to me. Dr Kim's easy explanation of DHA-based medicine 'DNA combined with water' really sets aside the notion of introducing viruses inside of the body. The 'beer' analog makes it easy to understand production. Great Suff! Let's raise a glass to Dr. Kim -- hmm its only 9am in the morning... and say goodby to $INO in the 9s...

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Sep 29, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    Clyde..Clyde... Clyde;
    Short term crooks are not interested in 3 year run-ups. You fail to realize that something like 60% of the volume today is algo traders at the hedge funds and other deep pocket win-at-all-costs outfits. Decency, fair play, and fundamental analysis have given way to manipulation. Small biotechs are obvious targets for reasons well explained in this thread. When a catalyst is achieved, simply join the 'sell on the news' crowd of traders and pound the price down for big gains in a few days -- why ride a stock for 3 years? The removal of the uptick rule set the stage for this and alas, the SEC and congress are too incompetent to understand the game. Like INO, one of AF's pure scams was with Synthetic Biologics ($SYN) which had turned success into failure and will now force the company to raise funds at an egregiously low price. The system is broken...

    ATVB,
    Don

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