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Ivanhoe Energy Inc. Message Board

dhdhoora 81 posts  |  Last Activity: 39 minutes ago Member since: Feb 28, 2006
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  • Reply to

    On the Other Hand

    by cwajga1 1 hour 11 minutes ago
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 39 minutes ago Flag

    The XBI was off an astounding 4.20%, the IBB off a spanky 2.9% today. This is Hillary health care on its way to a biotech investment nearest you. But of course, with the Donald, we'd have a stock market S&P @ 1400. Take you pick...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    MIZUHO Downgrade - May 4th

    by traderman1991 7 hours ago

    Precisely -- this is an obvious play on headlines to favor short positions. Any serious analyst would not get their panties in a bunch over the debt offering...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • vs -- good discussion on the debt offering. ... We can all debate the numbers, but the most important 'variable' is 'how successful Veltassa will be in the market'. Early results are encouraging and ZS may still face challenges with FDA approval for its's drug. But two big ideas are missing in your analysis because there now appears to be a believable 'runway' to profitability for the company (Nirvana for any small cap bio-tech...):
    1) The debt capital raised puts Relypsa in a much better position to negotiate or consider buyout offers. No panic in running out of cash...
    2) While the 11% interest rate is obscene, the debt offering is way better than issuing common stock. Importantly, in all likelihood the debt will be retired as the company moves toward profitability and can easily get better terms. So, this is essentially a very short term placement with little need for payment of principal.

    So, unless you believe Veltassa is a strikeout (AKA Auryxia), then we've just been handed a very nice buying opportunity. For LT investors, no need to find the bottom now. Buy, hold and be very happy with either a easy buyout or a 2 bagger with 2 years...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    We're firmly in control of some computer bot

    by bmcgoo_03 May 2, 2016 9:43 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 3, 2016 11:46 AM Flag

    fib -- one of the best thesis I've seen on the price action of small cap biotech. I've 'invested' for 40 years but in the last half dozen or so years, have become a card carrying member of the no-name no-brain sheeple. The really sad part is that along with us sheeple, the Hedgies have also lost a lot of money playing with their algo toys...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    kerx roll call....

    by big_jake_ii Apr 29, 2016 10:02 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 2, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    In since early 2014 when the street was pumping Keryx as a $20+ stock. Average price around $8. Looking forward to 2017 when we have the company we thought we had in 2014!

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Out of 10 bio's I track there's only 1 up 6.1%

    by crazitjo Apr 28, 2016 11:26 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 28, 2016 12:02 PM Flag

    Crazito -- thank you for a decent post instead of the amazing junk that typically floods these MBs...

    But, wasn't GM supposed to be a guy with the chops in the renal space to make this a blockbuster? Let's face it, the trial messed up, and the first year of the launch was a disaster. The question remains that without the IDA label, does Auryxia have any real advantage over the other hugely established drugs? GM ducked that question in today's CC... The sales force is hustling to get patients new to Stage 5 -- but they sure aren't converting existing patients...

    Fortunately, it looks like they finally have their commercial strategy in order with the new commercial manager last fall. The P3 IDA looks terrific and I believe in 2017, we'll be back to the company we thought we had in 2014. For the technical traders, we've also substantially broke above the 200 DMA and yes, it looks like a lot of short covering...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Was Hoping Fresenius Was Dropping Out of Picture

    by golongin2008 Apr 25, 2016 10:42 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 25, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    Agree. Fresenius is the 'big dog' in the renal space but where are they in the cardio space? If Relypsa wanted to stay in bed with Fresenius, why didn't they just sell the franchise to Frensenius? The press release was written by Frensenius and said nothing about the cardio space. Can Relypsa still find a cardio partner?
    Definitely not leading toward a buyout IMHO...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    5:00 is the pivotal point of this Stock's Price

    by drewbie2130 Apr 20, 2016 11:39 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 21, 2016 8:18 PM Flag

    What happens at 5 o clock?

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 18, 2016 5:48 PM Flag

    When's next CC? mid to late May? Synthetic will be on fumes by then and any partnership will be made on very unfavorable terms. Sure looks like we're trying to run up towards $3 for another secondary. No rational explanation for the PPI read out delay. And, Riley has no cred with the street so these are trying times for we LT holders...
    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 18, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    Precisely. The dissing of the buyout began to give shorts cover time going into Friday's options expiration. An incredibly negative piece on SA today was timed to let shorts re-establish long positions. This market is not for the old fashioned 'investor' any more. no way to compete with HF and HF traders...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    NRG - 20 BILLION IN DEBT & NO OPTIONS

    by saulcohen65 Apr 15, 2016 11:14 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 18, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    As a obvious short, you're really working too hard -- suggest you move on to 'greener' pastures. $1B+ in 2016 FCF does give them plenty of options. Next, I suppose you'll rant about the dividend cut -- that was announced on 2/29 -- old news now.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    5 buck chuck

    by capone752 Apr 17, 2016 7:46 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 17, 2016 8:56 PM Flag

    Let's see, The hedge funds that purchased the 11% interest senior debt -- maybe around last Tuesday -- had plenty of time to accumulate short positions to profit off of the inevitable SP debacle that will follow the planned announcement of the suspension etc after the close on Friday. The little retail stupid dumb nuts like me does not have a chance any longer in this market. Stuck now bag holding for at least two more years... CLMT will eventually get fixed, but nothing pretty for the common unit holders...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 16, 2016 5:38 PM Flag

    Bret has 23,000 followers on SA, his publications are #2 on SA, and he offers about 5 newsletters and features a very strong Biotech Forum. Other than that, he's just a nimrod pumper or dumper like most posters here.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 12, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    Absolutely agree. But gosh, anyone relying on stop losses with $SYN has clearly not looked at the volatility in the SP for the past several years. If either 010 or 004 finds a partner and/or trials continue to be positive, the shares are at least 100% undervalued. Name a single small cap biotech with the potential of Synthetic and a MC of only $200M??????

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    I can't believe how totally effed up this is

    by liz.cabbage Apr 12, 2016 11:23 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 12, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Liz -- totally agree. Synthetic is the trading toy of some hedge funds, algo traders etc. Over the past two years I count no less than 11 peaks and valleys in the SP -- most not directly correlated with any fundamental news. Pure trading - not investing. (I'm not 'smart' enough to play the game). A huge position was abruptly sold off this morning -- traders taking profits or precursor to bad news? In any case, I'm still way overweight on Synthetic and not yet wiling to go on a diet until after there is next read outs from 004 and 010 trials...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    IRWDs market cap

    by nitabosco Apr 9, 2016 12:29 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 9, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    You have to give IRWD credit for a brilliant convertible debt offering -- they hit the market at the top for biotechs and gave themselves plenty of ammo to fight the likes of Synergy. As biotechinvestor just said, the huge headwind for Plecanatide is the immense challenge of breaking the drug into a competitive space with a rookie sales force. Very, very, tough -- and their are potentially 92,000 prescription writers to snuggle up to. IRWD also has 2+ years head start and has spent hundreds of millions in building brand awareness through advertising -- something Synergy will not be able to do. So, while Plecanatide might be better than Linzess, it will not be anything but a slow, slug out in the market. With approval, Synergy's overwhelmingly best option is to either sell the company or get a deep partnership on Plecanatide. Going it alone is not the answer IMHO - but that seems to be mindset of Synergy leadership.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    UPTREND ON VOLUME / HEADED FOR A BREAKOUT?

    by neua0001 Apr 8, 2016 10:07 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 8, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    The market will favor a cut in dividend. Keeping this at current level is not responsible management. I'm a long term holder, but damage has been done. Time to get on with a more realistic vision offered by the new CEO. No quick fixes here, oil is not going anywhere soon and the market simply does not attribute proper value for the products. SP was thrown out with the E&P meltdown and will be slow to recover unless there is some dramatic reversal in the crack spreads... But borrowing dough to pay the distribution is not the way to go....
    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 1, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    I like the Griffin Securities report -- it's available on their web site. It does a nice job of laying out alternative funding scenarios -- all of which I'm certain keep the guys and gals at Synthetic awake at night. We're marching toward a $3 level (yea!) which me thinks will trigger another secondary after the next P2b read out from 004. But, keep in mind the Griffin Securities is closely involved with Intrexon and I'm sure will be involved as a book runner for any secondary that Synthetic might do.

    But no real negatives here, patience will be rewarded and hopefully we have no more disappointments like Trimesta to rain on our parade.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Terribly Dissapointing

    by albertmanning76 Mar 30, 2016 4:30 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 30, 2016 8:56 PM Flag

    Didn't we learn for the Zerenex trial filing for something that was not tested? Incompetent management to the point of fraudulent behavior. Estimated cost to payers for first line prescription for iron anemia in NDD-CKD is about $750/mo vs. a bottle of Geritol if you can stand the stuff. Amazing... Just give us a plan that will work -- not a pipe dream you hope you can catch the FDA looking the other way...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Terribly Dissapointing

    by albertmanning76 Mar 30, 2016 4:30 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 30, 2016 8:52 PM Flag

    Agree 100%. In 40 yrs of investing, I've NEVER been so disappointed in management. Seems they are now considering presenting their P3 anemia trial to the FDA as a first line treatment for NDD-CKD with iron anemia. What the heck? The trial tested those with futility towards regular iron anemia drugs (OTC). So, here we go again asking for SOMETHING WE DID NOT TEST.

IVAN
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