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Flagstar Bancorp Inc. Message Board

dhdhoora 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2015 2:34 PM Member since: Feb 28, 2006
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  • Reply to

    What is the bottom here? $14?

    by moakeybear Aug 3, 2015 8:24 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Aug 3, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    No telling. Nothing is based upon fundamentals now -- only downward momentum and miss-understanding of frac sand demand by the market. NOTHING accounts for the nearly 50% drop in the past month -- complete miss-pricing. If I wasn't up to my eyeballs in this, I'd buy more now! But, who knows when the market will get its head out of the sand -- my guess is that EOY, enough smart people will find their way into shares and the the recovery will start to take place. But, no metrics or logic to try and pick a bottom...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    No fracking - no sand

    by oracle1234 Jul 26, 2015 7:00 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Aug 3, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    @oracle1234 "New US drilling is ceasing at these levels". That is absolutely not true. What is the case is that there has been a cessation of drilling in more marginal areas. Core areas are still active and actually with new drilling plans, utilize significantly MORE sand that previous designs. This, to a certain extent, offsets the loss of sand not utilized in lesser productive areas. The total volume of sand shipped by HCLP will not show the same drop off as the rig counts. Counting rigs now is just not the right metric. You and the market have it wrong.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 27, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Not exactly -- I can find no information as to why he left AMAG. Yes, he knew about Keryx from way back so if he was dumped by AMAG (outfit had 300% revenue growth last year), it would not be surprising to see him take the Keryx job. (Maybe no one else wanted it...) I sense, along with the rest of the market, that Keryx is now officially in a state of turmoil. Rarely, does it make any sense to bring back a previous exec that was not a founder. Hey, he dumped the company once for greener pastures and his resume certainly shows a lot of job switching with just a few years at each gig. This activity certainly does not engender loyalty to any company.

    I'm trying to stay level headed about Keryx and see what the Q2 CC has to say, but it's getting tougher every day. The shorts rule right now and events apparently continue to scare off LT holders..

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    every quater

    by bluhorseshu76 Jul 23, 2015 9:31 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 23, 2015 10:39 PM Flag

    Yes, Same Old Story. The company is growing linearly quarter-to-quarter and in continuous upgrade mode -- from retail to SMB to International to International SMB to mid-market to International mid market now maybe to enterprise... All providing a very stable, don't risk your paycheck operation. 25% yoy growth is very impressive -- but in the end not very much profit. So, 8x8 never really rolled the dice to hit a home run. Lots of singles but not enough to cause anyone to buy them out. The higher they go in the customer food chain, the more challenging it is for them. If I were a CTO or CFO in a major enterprise, would I trust my entire communication ops to a small cap company? Don't think so. There niche is clearly international mid market and there they continue to make decent progress. But so does Ring, Fusion and others...

    ATVB,
    don

  • Reply to

    An opening...

    by rc248 Jul 22, 2015 12:27 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 22, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    To learn more about the MS and RMS market, I would encourage everyone to read DoctoRx's recent SA -- An Assessment Of Celgene's Deal For Receptos. It is quite a primer on drugs in, and under development, in the MS space. Little wonder no one has swooped up Trimesta until MRI and cognitive data are out. This is an incredibly crowded space...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Q2 distribution 0.475

    by yeemkj Jul 21, 2015 5:27 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 21, 2015 10:15 PM Flag

    What happened to the 85% sold on 5yr take or pay contracts??? We've been Crushed...

  • Reply to

    Smartest kid in the class: Seelisa at SA

    by cmblanch1 Jul 18, 2015 8:04 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 18, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    Totally agree -- Seelisa seems to have terrific insight into the current state of affairs with Trimesta/UCLA etc. No, this is not inside information, but his/her thesis really makes sense to me. Actually, it's quite bullish towards a reasonably quick partner deal with Trimesta -- (Q3?). In any case, the urgency of the timing has been somewhat reduced by the secondary -- so events will run their course based on the the dynamics of the market, realities with Dr V., and UCLA -- not a panic move by Synthetic.

    Also, check out Recptos and their RPC103 for RMS drug. About 2 years ahead of Trimesta enrolling P3 now and working on a better, safer alternative to Interferon. They're currently evaluating MRIs for lesion improvement etc. but no discussion on cognitive improvement. Interesting that a company like Recptos can fetch a $7.2B MC with really no more block buster shots on goal than poor little $SYN -- a glimpse of our future?!!!

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Absurd

    by the_stakeholder Jul 17, 2015 10:01 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 17, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    the-stakeholder -- I'm now approaching a 45% haircut on $HCLP and struggle with continuing to add to my over-weighted position. Like you, I'm beyond stunned that the we're now in the $22 range -- numbers we last visited in July 2013. The really amazing thing is that we're not even forming a base -- just a plunge into a black hole.

    Anyway, that "something" has to be that the frac sand companies need to start educating the market as to the current state of fracking technology. Michael Filloon in SA has a fantastic primer on current fracking using Continental as an example. The market is locked in on reduced rig count -- the actuality is that the demand for frac sand is actually increasing. As Michael says "Sand-heavy high-intensity frac jobs may provide more upside than any current technology." Hope you check out the article -- YH will not let me post the link...

    So, time for Hi-Crush to get their head out of the sand and start informing the market of the true state of the frac sand market.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    The better question should be.

    by bostonchicken99 Jul 16, 2015 4:38 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 16, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    Sjsb -- completely agree with your assessment. The delays in Trimesta caused the company to run out of cash. My only question was why didn't Captain Kirk or XON step in with a bridge loan? In any case, today's 17M shares traded did not consist of new shares offered in the secondary. I believe those shares start trading ATM on July 21...

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jeff Riley --- TRUST?!?!?

    by fireball_money Jul 16, 2015 9:24 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 16, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    Agreed and the market agrees also. Current $3.30/SP reflects dilution against $4 -- quite surprising actually -- ignoring the $3 secondary. Anyone that understands Synthetic must realize that they have little control over the timing of Trimesta data. They have recently negotiated and clarified their IP position and now continue the waiting game. This has absolutely nothing to do with lied to...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    $3 is a rip off

    by azules_way Jul 16, 2015 9:31 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 16, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Come on now. $SYN was in the $3.50 to $4.00 range a grand total of two days. Do you think you could get an offering to market in two days? This offering is obviously 'Plan B' because of the delays with Trimesta. Getting $3 was a darn good price, IMHO. You're financing a fairly little amount of equity (17% new) still with the hope of additional dough (Trimesta partnership, SYN004 partnership etc...) or another secondary after much anticipated results -- what Riley was looking for next year. Think of this as quick financing from the local 'pay day' loan shop -- not enough to run through P3 trials...

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Down on High Trading Volume

    by rockytopbva Jul 7, 2015 10:35 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 7, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    It is a mystery to me as to why a 'major stakeholder' would sell $HCLP at this level. Way too good fundamentals with a pretty safe dividend to ride out this mess. That said, EMES has actually fared worse than HCLP -- but IMHO, is not as strong a company as HCLP. Somewhere along the line, smart money is going to start buying big time -- not selling. Makes no sense selling at these levels...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 6, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    Kevin...
    Great recap of the many positives for HCLP and current market situation! Alas, the 4% drop in crude today is the primary headline that the algos and traders have used to ride this thing down into the toilet. We're now trading at a level last seen on Sept 30, 2013 -- so almost 2 yr low. At that time, High Crush was a fraction of the size that it is now and had none of the positives that you mentioned. In 2013, sand was competing with ceramics and lots of experimenting with well design, lateral lengths, frack stages. The jury has spoken quite clearly. Unless you believe that Fracking is going to be shut down, then there will be an unprecedented demand for norther white stand delivered at a decent price thanks in part to High Crush's logistic assets...

    I'd really be concerned if this sell-off was supported by large volume -- only about 33% above 100 avg. So, for those that have dry powder, now is the time to buy -- not sell!

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Roche 'High Efficacy' MS Drug Succeed in Trials

    by cyg2011 Jun 30, 2015 7:56 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jul 1, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    DQ -- we're all expressing opinions here based upon our perceptions, experience, and due diligence. I certainly believe that letting the cash till run dry while waiving off, or delaying partner offers on Trimesta would be beyond breach of fiduciary duty. Of course, the company is not required to discuss potential partnerships during negotiations unless the deal is for a meaningful sale of assets or sale of the company. My personal opinion is that JR played a strategy with Trimesta that simply did not work out and now his (our) back is against the wall. My perception is that he has also been downplaying Trimesta for the past several months. So, my conclusion is that there are no material offers on the table. Gosh, I hope I'm wrong -- and I haven't sold a single share of $SYN -- still the second largest holding in my portfolio.

    I know people don't like it when I raise negative discussion on Trimesta -- but I think we all have to start to take a more balanced approach to Trimesta. 6 months ago, I, like most longs here, had hoped that Trimesta would be the horse that pulled the 004 and 010 wagon.

    In any case, ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Roche 'High Efficacy' MS Drug Succeed in Trials

    by cyg2011 Jun 30, 2015 7:56 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jun 30, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    There is a reason that NO one has made a move for Trimesta without the positive cognitive data...

    Sigh,
    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Seth Klarman and I

    by a_gasparyan Jun 25, 2015 8:27 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jun 25, 2015 9:57 PM Flag

    a_gasparyan -- well I'm probably as smart as either your or Seth... But I still like $KERX a lot -- because they are executing to plan with seeming very solid management and a great product. What troubles me is that maybe we are all stupid -- how can we possible think that there are so many people that have this name wrong?

    The short interest in Kerx...
    Keryx Biopharmaceuticals was the target of a significant growth in short interest in the month of June. As of June 15th, there was short interest totalling 32,027,753 shares, a growth of 6.6% from the May 29th total of 30,036,985 shares. Based on an average daily volume of 1,197,260 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is presently 26.8 days. Approximately 31.6% of the shares of the stock are sold short.

    Either we are wrong, or a whole lot of shorts are going to be very, very sad by EOY...

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts are playing with fire

    by dalton880 Jun 24, 2015 7:48 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jun 24, 2015 9:04 PM Flag

    Yes, it's completely baffling to me that over 30% of shares are short! Why do so many people believe that this is going to bust when it is clear that the company is on a fairly steady path to profitability and have some experience management to lead the way? Anyway, Brean reiterated their $26/sh price and gosh, they certainly must be way more stupid than most of the short sellers. Even Maxim -- who has an ax to grind with $KERX, has a $17 target. So, what is the downside risk vs upside potential? Hmmmm...

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Buy

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Jun 22, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    fdafgdd... fun to speculate. With regard to whatever even is about to be announced, somebody bot a boatload -- 100s of thousands of shares in the last 45 minutes. It certainly was not us retail investors... Tomorrow is going to be exciting!

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Jun 19, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    This is a pure PR play. HUGE difference between 004 as a prophylactic and ingesting s__t as a 'therapeutic'. Which approach will win out over the long run? One prevents c-diff if the first place. Also, there is no long term study on what the unintended consequences are of whacking your microbiome with someone else's #$%$...

    Sadly, these episodes continue to confound me as to why people are getting the message on $SYN. Hopefully the 004 PII top line read-out will finally bring these difference into light of day out of the cold dark recesses of the rectal universe..

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    12 Million in Cash

    by mdr0418 Jun 16, 2015 12:30 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jun 17, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    mdr... Agree that JR originally believed Trimesta report by end of Q2 -- but without any news, he as not been able to put together a deal. Also, he has been downplaying Trimesta for months -- so, IMHO, Trimesta is truly and outlyer. We will have a secondary offering after the next report on 004 -- due out in a few weeks. Company controls the news on this one -- not like Trimesta. So, I suspect that without Trimesta pulling the wagon we will have no option but to do a secondry now and eventually partner for 004 and/or 010. The Trimesta fiasco has taken independent PIII development of 010 and 004 off the table. Not the worst position, but definitely 'Plan B'.

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Buy

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