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Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. Message Board

dhdhoora 53 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Feb 28, 2006
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  • Reply to

    why is Scott MAtusow so BEAR here

    by topgunbioinvestor Apr 16, 2014 2:27 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 13 hours ago Flag

    All:

    Scott is an accomplished biotech blogger. He has quite a following and I've seen him move the share price of a stock a number of times. But Scott is not an investor, he is a trader simply using his considerable skills to support his position of the day - long or short. It took me a few painful lessons to understand this, but the guy probably makes a pretty decent living moving the needle. Like all of us, he is wrong some of the time, but the guy has real juice. His impact on a stock fades after a few week, but it probably is not a bad program to trade with his positions as long as you get very early after his articles are published.

    All the very best,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora 18 hours ago Flag

    Yes, I spend most of my time over at SA on the same handle dhdhoora -- fortunately, there are a few fellows like you and 'wait' on a VERY few YMB sites that make it worth the time to stop by. Over the past few years, most YMB sites have degenerated into simple bashing and name calling. Yahoo Groups work better than many MBs because they can be monitored and they are joined by screening by the monitor. We probably need to get involved with those...

    All the very best,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora 20 hours ago Flag

    @ Stock...
    Agreed. After about 40 yrs of investing, I'm now 'retired' and spend about 6 hrs a day on the market -- 90% of which is doing research. My turnover is about 40%/yr so I consider that I manage a personal mutual fund or ETF of about 35 to 40 names. 25% of the value of my portfolio is in biotech -all clinical stage companies -- because I really like looking for exciting areas in biotech with a decent pipeline and identified catalysts. I've held $KERX since an average of $6.16 and obviously not crying about the name specifically. Reluctantly, I'm just am now coming to grips that while I believe $KERX will eventually find its way into the 20s, it probably will make some sense to become more of a trader against a portion of the holding. Of course, we all understand that the overall market and/or sector is going to typically account for about 70% of the movement of any stock.

    Appreciate your great comments and will look forward to a return to upward movement with $KERX!

    All the very best,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora 21 hours ago Flag

    @Waiting...

    Thanks for reminding us of the bigger picture. That said, if your thesis is accurate, it would seem to mean the demise of the LTBH investor. If name like $KERX is indeed subject to macro movement dictated by ETFs, then what is the value of trying to pick and hold for the long term? Yes, we all could have sold @ $17, but most of us are looking at the future of Keryx and believing that we'll see considerably move SP appreciation over the next year -- given the catalysts that the company has before it. So, while the stock will indeed appreciate above the trend with these catalysts, are we then inevitably forced to become more of a trader and take profits as there will be a reversion to the ETF mean? Maybe I'm still jarred by the biotech flash crash -- but it would seem that things have changed in these markets and we're not necessarily going to rewarded for our risk or efforts in individual stock picking. $KERX is not alone in this question. Most of my biotech name have made similar moves -- irrespective of their individual merits.

    Appreciate any reasonable comments...

    All the very best,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $110 Million+ Raised & Burned by APPY

    by balastona Apr 3, 2014 11:05 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 16, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    Sir, I suggest that you do some investigation on what most clinical stage biotech companies have spend to get their drugs and/or tests through to commercialization. This space is somewhat of a lottery market -- most recommend holding a basket and not getting emotionally engaged in a single name.

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    FDA approval coming, and this nonsense ?

    by dalton880 Apr 16, 2014 9:55 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 16, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Stock...
    Right on. Why we're both positive on $KERX -- no way this will see $22 at PDUFA date. My guess is that we'll nudge back to the 52 week high $17ish if we get good news on the P2 non chronic use at the end of April and then a bit more for PDUFA approval. After that, the catalysts are in and we'll wait for Zerenex sales info to make Kerxy into a real ongoing concern. So 12 months from now if the market stays happy, we're starting to look at something along the $24 to $29 range -- unless of course a suitor comes a calling!

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    FDA approval coming, and this nonsense ?

    by dalton880 Apr 16, 2014 9:55 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 16, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    Yes, the trading folks are having fun with this and must have been delighted with yesterday's biotech flash crash... I've never been good enough to trade but if I wasn't already fully allocated to KERX, I'd 'back up the truck" at these levels. I'm impressed with the new execs Kerxy has hired and they obviously believe that Zerenex will be approved with the upcoming PDUFA. (If you had the credentials of the new hires, do you think you would join the company now if there was any real concern about PDUFA approval?) Also, P2 top line data for NCCD to be released on April 25 -- so too many catalysts to keep this down. Hope every takes advantage of these cheap shares!

    All the very best,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Biotech Flash Crash

    by ezratrades Apr 15, 2014 5:55 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 15, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    Completely agree as I just finished posting same under the 2 for 1 topic a few minutes ago... Glad to hear that somebody picked up on the flash crash. The real concern is how it happened. Dennis Gartman -- a person I respect -- said last week that he saw something in the market that he had not seen in 40 yrs of investing and was 'scared'. Well, I was scared this afternoon. Something is really wrong with our markets. I'm certainly not qualified to know what it is -- but I speculate that this has something to do with ETFs and ETFs loaning shares to short sellers. They have got control of the whole sector now via XBI and IBB...

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Why is AF dead, so much volume today

    by slash_blackmore22 Apr 15, 2014 5:14 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 15, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Not sure AF was the cause for today's price action, but biotech actually had something of a 'flash crash' shortly after noon. The whole sector was down huge -- many approaching a 10% loss. I can only speculate that this has something to do ETFs selling and ETFs loaning shares to short sellers. I find it impossible to believe that 100,000s of investors all decided to sell biotech during their lunch hour. It is extremely disturbing to me that the market no longer reflects the collective decisions of those 100,000s of investors but the whim of a few players. I can live with a given small cap stock getting played, it REALLY bothers me when this action spills over into a whole sector. i hold approx 9 biotech stocks -- about 25% of portfolio value. So, it was pretty scary this afternoon.

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    the split is two for one

    by sandon16444 Apr 15, 2014 4:21 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 15, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    Please -- it is a 1 for 2 up to 1 for 4 split... (you will own 1 share for every 2 that you own...) It is a Reverse Split -- not a regular split. Personally, I'm very much in favor of the RS. Nothing changes with the fundamentals. But the split does provide a way for many institutional investors to join the party. As long as the fundamental prospects for the company are solid (and they are) the R/S is in itself, not a bad thing. Problem is that too many people think of reverse splits being used only to save a failing company from de-listing. That is not the case here. Chill out, relax, there will be silly selling because of this fear, but after the split, the company will actually enjoy more stability and support of the share price.

    All the very best,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 11, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    Shadow...

    I've been in this name for the past 18 months and like you, am disappointed by the ski-slope slide in $ATRS SP. When will it end? Who knows... However, today does strike me as some kind of capitulation with 4.2MM shares traded on no news. Yes, share are hostage to the biotech slaughter -- but that does not explain the volume ramp -- starting yesterday. So, maybe, just maybe, we are reaching a washout. And yes, anyone that is silly enough to use stop loss orders in a small biotech uh, should seek help because they are setting themselves up for a pounding...

    All the very best,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SYN

    by mdr0418 Apr 10, 2014 3:52 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 11, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    @mdr & eptritske...

    Ah yes, I have a solid position in SYN and a much too long position in ATRS. It seems that small cap biotech shares run up on speculation about catalysts then get flagged when they actually start to produce revenues. Hard to find a worse looking chart than ATRS...

    Anyway, SYN looks exciting -- and it sure looks to be bucking the biotech sell-off trend! Not sure why, but I'll take it!

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    SA Blogger..Brett Jensen

    by richardclovis Apr 1, 2014 7:00 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 4, 2014 5:47 PM Flag

    @richardclovis,

    I respect Brett Jensen and am delighted that he has confirmed my (our) faith in AMZG. Having invested in Bakken players for the past couple of years, IMHO, American Eagle is traveling down a proven path for Bakken O&G players. As long as WTI stays above $80 -- it's hard to go wrong with well run companies that continue to aggregate and prove their holdings that don't get ahead of themselves with too much leverage or speculation. I don't think AMZG is in that camp...

    All the very best,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Separating the Science from the Business...

    by donjayouworry Apr 2, 2014 4:29 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Apr 4, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Right... The PRICE of the offering makes no sense in the context of the business opportunity that the company presents. Either we are being completely miss-led by management and our wishful thinking, or the emperor has no clothes. If the upside was to be believed, you would not need a 40% haircut to sell the secondary. This simply does not 'add up'...

    All the very best,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 28, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    @palewis61...
    I agree with your assessment and reluctantly doubled down my position @ 3:03 yesterday. I to have never seen such a discount to SP for a secondary. The only answer can be that they could not sell the offering anywhere near the $5 range and ended up with bottom feeders purchasing shares. What people must understand is that the company has absolutely NO incentive to offer secondary shares way below the market price. Yes, there will be a reasonable discount to current price but nothing like the haircut experienced by ASXS. Remember also that the capital lost in the 40% SP reduction is lost to the company. No company wants that. So, my question is, WHY DIDN'T THE COMPANY SIMPLY WITHDRAW THE SECONDARY - not finding suitable interest? There are only two possible answers -- 1) management is incompetent; or 2) management believed that shares were significantly overpriced...INO continues to eat their lunch...

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Facts on the reverse split from INOVIO.

    by sand_snow Mar 28, 2014 1:34 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 28, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    All:

    The RS makes complete sense IMHO. I've been through several R/S situations and IF the prospects and fundamentals of the company are solid -- then the RS is a positive move. This will get more institutional shareholders into the name and will tend to reduce volatility. That said, some ninnies will get scared and dump shares believing all RS actions are bad -- hmmm Google must be on the ropes now...

    All the very best,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    15k dumped AH

    by ready2chang Mar 26, 2014 4:10 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 26, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    Profit taking and the amount is peanuts compared to the 16.44MM shares traded. Not worth thinking about...

    All the very best,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Time to add

    by outthegate123 Mar 11, 2014 6:40 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 14, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    OTG123...

    Yes, I agree with your comments and I too am adding more for the long run. In my 40+ yrs of investing, I've not seen too many companies, outside of biotech, that have the upside that ERII appears to have! My only concern is the unusual silence around the early orders in the O&G space. If Aramco or Sinopec or whomever are in the process of moving beyond 'test' phase, with production commitments, not sure why they would be compelled, or compel ERII, to stay quiet. But, with Energy Recovery hiring an O&G sales force, the word is bound to get out. So, probably best to not worry. I'm already a retiree working the market pretty intently, but me thinks this stock is going to get me a new retirement home in a couple of years!

    All the very best,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 13, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    If it turns out not to be true -- the company is being run by incompetent people -- which I don't believe is the case. While I understand they cannot comment on the specifics -- they could certainly say something like 'we are confident in our position'. Most companies facing litigation issues, defend their positions. No harm in doing that. Yes, Mr. Wooten - get some balls...

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Mar 12, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    cacheflash;
    I hold a patent and have been involved in a number of patent campaigns... It would have been almost unthinkable and beyond incompetent to miss the claims of the Medac patent. I extremely doubt that they would have prior claim. If they did, then we all should sell our shares because Antares management is beyond hope.

    All the very best,
    Don

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