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КОрпорация Кодиак Ойл & Газ Message Board

dhdhoora 66 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Feb 28, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Microbiome space

    by liz.cabbage May 27, 2016 1:53 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 22 hours ago Flag

    The economics and safety profile of 004 speak for themselves. Something like 21,000 people DIE from c.diff each year. I have an acquaintance that went through 4 months of heart issues in the ICU and eventually got c.diff. He indicated that the c.diff was much worse that the heart condition (he was paddled 15 times...)
    So, hospitals will readily go for a $100 prophylactic for c.diff. 'Here, take this pill before we give you an IV"...

    004 is the game at Synthetic. 010 may be useful, but it entirely depend on partnering.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    A couple of questions to today's trading.

    by timeout2575 May 27, 2016 6:18 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 22 hours ago Flag

    What most people fail do understand is that with electronic trading and hedge funds, people play both sides of the trade. They could care less about any underlying fundamentals. I suspect most don't know anything about Relypsa or Veltassa or whatever. They took profits on the spike up, that gave them firepower to incrementally undercut the bid all day and accumulate some shares and support their short positions. Straight algo trading. I believe that there are few 'short' players out there -- just those with the firepower to push around a small cap biotech. Happens all over the place. If there is a 'binary' event such as a 'buyout', then their long positions cover their short. Otherwise keep driving the SP down making money on the short positions and wait until the next event...wash, rinse, and repeat the cycle...

    Sad, but ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    syn-010 at DDW, a couple of reactions

    by liz.cabbage May 25, 2016 11:34 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 25, 2016 8:47 PM Flag

    I'm in Synergy for Plecanatide and believe it will do well against Linzess next year. The real interesting thing to me is that 010 will probably be prescribed along with Plecanatide or Linzess in the initial therapy setting. We'll have to wait and see if 010 finds long-term use in most IBS-C patients. Some for sure, but hard to project what % will adopt LT use...

    But, once again, with such a great report from Liz, we're left wondering why no partner for 010. There is absolutely no rational way that JR and gang should ever attempt to commercialize this by themselves. Insane... So, we'll have a secondary before end of Q2 because no more near term catalysts. I finally capitulated and sold 1/3 of my position over the past few daze -- looking to buy back after the hammer comes down on the secondary...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    syn-010 at DDW, a couple of reactions

    by liz.cabbage May 25, 2016 11:34 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 25, 2016 8:39 PM Flag

    You just got a well-deserved 'Ignore'. While you have every right to disagree, I'm tired of your ear-to-ear trash talking...

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora May 23, 2016 4:49 PM Flag

    Brian -- my sentiments exactly. For almost 2 years, this has been my largest biotech holding and # 2 in my portfolio. Pretty much the same drill we've heard before but with fresh data. That said, there was absolutely no reason for the CC this morning -- sad to drag everyone out @ 5:30am from their San Diego hotels. There was somewhat encouraging news -- but by no means overwhelming news on 010. What concerns me, and probably partners as well, is the very small trial size (same problem they had with Trimesta...) But without a larger trial, it seems that no partners are ready to pounce and we'll muddle along. Almost 100% certainty of another secondary -- because I don't see a spare $100M lying around for a P3.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    DDW: Dr. Mark Pimentel

    by liz.cabbage May 20, 2016 2:38 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 20, 2016 7:30 PM Flag

    Let's see if the rock star status will carry over to Synthetic's CC on Monday morning. Obviously, with an 8:30 start, they're not addressing attendees at the DDW conference. BTW, why in the world would you schedule a CC for 8:30am on Monday morning? Who decides these things?

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora May 16, 2016 9:06 PM Flag

    Precisely. The question remains, however, 'why hasn't someone scooped up Synthetic by now?". If SYN-004, itself, is a '+++ billion dollar drug' -- the usual purchase price would be many times that. So, some big guy should have purchase Synthetic for something greater than $1B. ($10/sh) They would get SYN_010 as a freebe. But, not happening yet. WHY?

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Nasdaq listing - Hoping for a couple weeks

    by mdickirson May 16, 2016 5:43 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 16, 2016 8:56 PM Flag

    FCC - Federal Communications Commission? Maybe SEC -- Securities and Exchange Commission?

    ATBV,
    Dpm

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Question

    by hanks34 May 11, 2016 1:26 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 11, 2016 9:03 PM Flag

    There are a lot of nuance in the 'schemes' that are probably a bit beyond our pay grade. No reason to panic -- this will happen. No, the last thing the company wants is to be bought out. Remember, John Pinkerton basically built Range Resources from scratch -- he's on Lonestar's BOD. With guys like him, they will continue to do the right thing with cash management and growth strategies. Frank Bracken III is also way better than the typical gung ho oil wildcatter cum CEO. I have no doubt this will be a $20 stock in two years or less unless the world blows up before then...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora May 11, 2016 8:54 PM Flag

    Two very solid VPs hired in 2 daze.... I have to believe that these highly-credentialed people would not be joining this company if they did not believe in the 'guts' of Synthetic. Congrats... Dr. Bright looks to be in charge of the partnership dance -- something JR has not been able to accomplish. So, me thinks this is all positive...
    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    SYN- New VP...

    by tina_bridgett50 May 9, 2016 8:45 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 10, 2016 7:40 PM Flag

    Well, it all looks very encouraging -- but we've seen this movie before. Somehow, JR and gang manage to #$%$ defeat from the jaws of victory and the traders have a picnic while we bagholders wait and wait and wait and wait... BOT my first shares in 2/19/14 @ 2.72/sh -- getting very old. Now the day after I sell (still may largest biotech holding), we'll finally announce a partner for Trimesta (oops SYN-010)...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Merck's Comments today on deal making

    by privatebioinvestor May 5, 2016 1:25 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 6, 2016 5:34 PM Flag

    We are in the Hillary bear market for biotechs...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Good News....

    by tina_bridgett50 May 5, 2016 5:21 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 5, 2016 9:49 PM Flag

    @tina_brodget50 -- we've both been around here for quite some time so today's CC was pretty much a 'no news' event -- maybe a bit better on the burn rate. That said, what caused the crash for the past 8 days? Alas, there is nothing fundamental that causes the SP to move -- shares are strictly the play toy of HF and hedge fund traders. Interesting that the CC had a 'softball' question from the last caller that set the stage for JR to give us all the 'overview' -- the same stuff we've all heard before and why we're still hanging around $SYN. The important thing that no one asked, no did JR comment on, why we haven't found a partner yet -- although looking for one for the past 3 quarters... hmmmm...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Partnership

    by liz.cabbage May 4, 2016 5:12 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 5, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    Liz. Agreed. Big pharma and biotech have no appetite for anything except drugs that have completed the clinic... should have mentioned this in my previous post...

  • Reply to

    A little logic here...

    by mindovermarket May 5, 2016 8:49 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 5, 2016 10:53 AM Flag

    mind -- Thank you for a bit of sanity on this amazingly messed up MB. I wasn't crazy about last month's debt conversion -- but it obviously was part of a package deal to institutional investors to sell the $90M secondary. Now, the balance sheet is in better shape and the company has a decent runway for the launch of CIC Plecanatide and support for the IBS-C Plecanatide. But, clearly the IBS space is crowded with players that have multi-year lead times.-- While Plecanatide, once approved, will eventually do quite well, it is not a knock-out home run drug. So, partners are not yet jumping on board. This secondary clearly indicates that the company is preparing to go down the challenging road of commercializing Plecanatide and Dolcanatide themselves. Next opportunity for partnering will not be before a PDUFA date for Plecanatide. The appetite by big pharma and big biotech is now aimed at drugs that have successfully completed the clinic -- much different from a few years ago...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Partnership

    by liz.cabbage May 4, 2016 5:12 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 5, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    Agreed. The few small cap biotechs that are fortunate (or unfortunate) enough to commercialize one of their drugs, find themselves in a huge predicament in getting traction into the markets. A good working number might be $150M/ yr for a dressed-up sales team. Generally, it might take 2 to 3 years to really gain traction.

    For Synthetic, SYN-004 has a more targeted market -- but hospitals are notoriously slow adopters of new drugs -- especially those targeted as SOC. But, the drug is so unique, that Synthetic has a decent shot there. Just the opposite is true with SYN-010. There are something like 90k potential prescription writers (USA) that would need to be contacted and educated. But, the IBS field is already crowded and well covered. Importantly, it now appears that SYN-010 will best be used in conjunction with other meds -- at least during the initial course of therapy. There is no fricken way that Synthetic should tackle this channel by themselves -- a partnership here is a MUST.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    On the Other Hand

    by cwajga1 May 4, 2016 4:13 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 4, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    The XBI was off an astounding 4.20%, the IBB off a spanky 2.9% today. This is Hillary health care on its way to a biotech investment nearest you. But of course, with the Donald, we'd have a stock market S&P @ 1400. Take you pick...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    MIZUHO Downgrade - May 4th

    by traderman1991 May 4, 2016 10:11 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 4, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    Precisely -- this is an obvious play on headlines to favor short positions. Any serious analyst would not get their panties in a bunch over the debt offering...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Debt Offering = No need cash until end of 2017

    by vs1234gs May 4, 2016 11:19 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 4, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    vs -- good discussion on the debt offering. ... We can all debate the numbers, but the most important 'variable' is 'how successful Veltassa will be in the market'. Early results are encouraging and ZS may still face challenges with FDA approval for its's drug. But two big ideas are missing in your analysis because there now appears to be a believable 'runway' to profitability for the company (Nirvana for any small cap bio-tech...):
    1) The debt capital raised puts Relypsa in a much better position to negotiate or consider buyout offers. No panic in running out of cash...
    2) While the 11% interest rate is obscene, the debt offering is way better than issuing common stock. Importantly, in all likelihood the debt will be retired as the company moves toward profitability and can easily get better terms. So, this is essentially a very short term placement with little need for payment of principal.

    So, unless you believe Veltassa is a strikeout (AKA Auryxia), then we've just been handed a very nice buying opportunity. For LT investors, no need to find the bottom now. Buy, hold and be very happy with either a easy buyout or a 2 bagger with 2 years...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    We're firmly in control of some computer bot

    by bmcgoo_03 May 2, 2016 9:43 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora May 3, 2016 11:46 AM Flag

    fib -- one of the best thesis I've seen on the price action of small cap biotech. I've 'invested' for 40 years but in the last half dozen or so years, have become a card carrying member of the no-name no-brain sheeple. The really sad part is that along with us sheeple, the Hedgies have also lost a lot of money playing with their algo toys...

    ATVB,
    Don

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