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КОрпорация Кодиак Ойл & Газ Message Board

dhdhoora 66 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Feb 28, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Riley at CEO conference

    by liz.cabbage 11 hours ago
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 10 hours ago Flag

    Liz -- yes this conference was a lot better than the debacle at the JPMorgan Healthcare conference. He's still trying to present way too much info -- but I assume the audience has copies of the presentation so they can go over the material in more detail later...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    010 May Be Up For Sale

    by fdafgdd 12 hours ago
    dhdhoora dhdhoora 11 hours ago Flag

    JR was throwing spaghetti against the wall looking to see if anything would stick. He acknowledges a
    $100 to $150M need over the 'next 2 or 3 years' to get 004 and 010 through commercialization. IMHO, the company would be flat out nuts to try and commercialize 010 themselves. The number of writing physicians in the US alone is something like 900,000. A fresh-faced sales team would have to approach every one of those -- think about that! Not gonna work. 010 must be partnered or sold. Also, JR mentioned that 010 would most likely be taken in conjunction with another med. Clear up the constipation with 010 and other med then expect to take 010 "for the rest of their lives". All the more reason to partner.

    004 has a chance for direct sales because the target customer would be clinics and hospitals -- a far more manageable number. Still, hospitals are slow adopters -- I've been burned by too many small biotechs trying to go down that journey. 004 would involve adopting a new SOC which will take a lot of time and effort... but there is strong $ and patient care incentives for hospitals to jump all over 004.

    I believe in the company and drugs -- but they are going to need 'deep pocketed investors' to step up and give them capital for 2016. Absolutely no way to raise equity capital at a reasonable price in these markets...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Feb 7, 2016 8:54 PM Flag

    big_jake_ii -- I admire your support for Mr. Madison and his miss-guided efforts to sell A. Without the anemia benefit, we have an undifferentiated product with no real incentive for nephrologists to change from their tried and true phosphate binders. The real problem is that a 95 person sales team has to cost somewhere between $15M and $20 M year. So, A's current sales rate will never come close to covering direct sales costs -- let alone G&A and R&D. So, it seems that the company is just stalling until the P3 completes for A/anemia maybe late 2017? What are these sale people to do in the mean time??? But, heck, since when does a sing drug company without a differentiated product go out and hire its one sales force? The answer -- when no one else will sell the drug.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • All -- I just noticed that the recently announced NTI dividend and WNR dividend are the same -- .38. Gosh, I was wondering why the huge drop in the NTI dividend -- did the crack spreads tighten that much during the quarter? Did NTI suddenly lose its geographical and gathering advantage? Did the stores go belly up? NOPE. Just the presumed new owner and GP did not want the company to pay out any more cash than necessary to the NTI unit holders. Give them the same as we're paying our common shareholders. That's fair isn't it? Hmmmm... #$%$...

    There is no decency left in any company with respect to the retail dumb butts like me that foolishly trust company management to act in their best interests. I'm a retiree and $NTI was a core 'dividend horse' in my portfolio. Now, WNR with it's OK dividend causes me to decide if I want to take on the additional volatility of WNR vs. something like VLO. I suspect that, like many others, I had planned on holding NTI at least through the next dividend cycle before the sell out...

    Sadly, ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Feb 3, 2016 3:14 PM Flag

    cwajga1 -- the problem is that some people obviously knew what was behind door # 1 and pushed the SP down some 25% in the 5 trading daze prior to the release. Hmmmm... hello SEC?

    Anyway, I've been bashed here by being negative on Trimesta because of the obvious silence, but I was really shocked as to just how bad the misses were toward the milestones. The company had to know about this much earlier and for whatever reason (fill in the blank ____________), they elected to not disclose this to the public. Does not give me warm fuzzies toward JR... The science in 004 and 010 seems solid so we march on...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Feb 2, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    All -- well the results speak for themselves. There has to be something to the timing of the release -- they didn't just get this data last Friday. So...

    But no one has discussed the fact that the SP sold off 25% (since 1.74 on Jan 27) in anticipation of this release. Normally, this is the kind of action the SEC would be interested in -- but hey, this is just small potatoes compared to what the hedgies are doing elsewhere.

    And then there were 2....

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Q4 results announced this Sunday...

    by jtbc5000 Jan 29, 2016 5:48 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Feb 2, 2016 3:26 PM Flag

    You got it. Lonestar will be a superstar in 2018 -- as oil prices skyrocket. Ya see, eventually the supply demand equation changes and we go from 1.5M barrels oversupply to 1.5M barrels undersupply. The big thing is that many high cost projects -- primarily offshore have been stopped. It will take years for those projects to get going again. In the mean time, the frackers that survive with all the assets that Lonestar brings to the table will be able to kick butt. So, miserable 2016, OK 2017, superstar 2018 -- 10 to 20 bagger!!! Let''s keep focused on the fundamentals and not grind over the day-to-day gyrations unless your one of the very few good traders out there...

    ATVB,
    Don

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q4 results announced this Sunday...

    by jtbc5000 Jan 29, 2016 5:48 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Feb 1, 2016 9:41 PM Flag

    Right on the debt. But remember that EWPO holds about 55% of shares -- they are a London Stock Exchange company specialization in energy and utilities. The company states"
    "EWPO has been supportive of the growth objectives of Lonestar and intends to remain a major shareholder of the Company with a view to participating in substantial further value creation".

    In other words, Lonestar also enjoys support from a major, sophisticated investor. They will back growth and if necessary provide a 'backstop' to the financing. This is a major reason why the credit remains strong at at Lonestar. But most importantly, because of huge cost reductions and focusing on only the most productive tracks, they can cove debt and ops from cash flow and only use cap ex when conditions improve. Virtually no one else in this space can do that...

    ATVB,
    don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Feb 1, 2016 5:15 PM Flag

    ugt... I appreciate your enthusiasm for 010. I personally believe that the drug has terrific potential. I believe that Dr. Mark Pimental is the real deal. That said, many important factors need to be considered when trying to guesstimate the size of an eventual market:
    1) the huge majority of the market in third world countries does not have access to healthcare for chronic diseases - those lasting more than 90 days.
    2) $10 day is way beyond realistic for the underdeveloped world.
    3) Most IBS-C sufferers will self-medicate with any number of OTC remedies
    4) It is unclear if 010 would need to be taken throughout a person's life.
    5) Competition with other drugs eventually going after the microbiome causes
    6) Harvoni from Gilead is the most successful drug of all time and brings in a fraction of the revenue you suggest
    7) Pimental is well regarded and has presented data at a number of occasions -- including Synthetic's microbiome conference. If there were even 1% chance that things are as you describe, the big players would have purchased Synthetic in a heartbeat. As is is, we wait for a partnership.

    I haven't sold a single $SYN share -- Trimesta, 004 or 010 are still all high risk and the stock remains highly speculative. If if were not so, we wouldn't have a $135M market cap.

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Q4 results announced this Sunday...

    by jtbc5000 Jan 29, 2016 5:48 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Feb 1, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    Great report by the best management in the junior E&P segment. The day-to-day pummeling of the SP is traders having fun with a completely under-followed name. There will be some improvement after the moving of the domicile to the US and listing on the Nasdaq, but ultimately we will wait for recovery in oil. Fundamentals do not matter when there is no liquidity in the name. But great to see this thing is not going over a cliff like so many of their peers will be doing in the upcoming months...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Must be a secondary coming . . . ?

    by crk00 Jan 29, 2016 3:43 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 31, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    Are you serious? The bots know a lot more about the stock than most of we humans... Most importantly, they have absolutely no emotion or attachment to any stock long or short. But let's not forget our friendly ETFs -- they get the crowd moving in one direction which makes it cake for the bots and hedgies to do their thing. But in any case, CLMT is given no credit for its reduction of cap-ex which will have a huge impact on cash flow...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg piece on N.D. refinery

    by bearofbleecker Jan 26, 2016 1:09 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 30, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    "Shareholders". Actually CLMT is a Limited Partnership. You have 'units' in the LP -- big difference from shares of common especially at tax time...

    ATVB,
    Con

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg piece on N.D. refinery

    by bearofbleecker Jan 26, 2016 1:09 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 29, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    The past 2 daze of selling probably triggered by Ex Div and article. But the market does not really have a clue about Calument. The Bakken refinery is a very small part of the operation and will remain a sticking point until the Bakken comes back to life (maybe never?). But it is one of the very few refineries built in the US in the last 30 yrs and made a lot of sense when the decision was made to build it.

    But what is equally befuddling is the press release put out by Calument on the 19th... It basically sounds like a 'warning' for upcoming quarterly release. The divy is safe, are backers are behind us, but...

    So, warning, article, and Ex Div provide the perfect soup for the bots and hedgies to either bail or pound the SP down...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    See the new article on SYN in SA: It is fabulous.

    by cmblanch1 Jan 25, 2016 8:06 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 25, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    DQ -- yes this was a great article - interesting thesis on obesity. Makes sense -- but so does prevention of c.diff and managing gut methane. (Wish the market would agree.) But, hey, what do I know!

    My take is that JR is working to get the SP back up by early Spring so as to be able to spring another secondary. Hoping for a partnership, but planning on a secondary. Not the end of the world if we have a secondary -- assuming that 004 and 010 readouts continue to be positive. As JR said last week, 'we have a drug'.... (at least one!)

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    New job posting for Keryx

    by highflier2go Jan 21, 2016 12:31 PM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 21, 2016 7:24 PM Flag

    All -- this hiring is clearly a step in the right direction. Sadly, it has taken them 15 months to realize that they know nothing about drug launches, drug marketing, drug sales, FDA expectations for labels, partnership building or investor relations. Sigh...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Here is the deal for me

    by dallasman1956 Jan 20, 2016 8:41 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 21, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    cwajga1, don_quixote -- agree with both of you that would have been great if release happened before/after share price had been trashed... But, IMHO, the 50% haircut from the previous good news was not purely shorts, but a calculated plan to walk the price down going into the announcement. Low volume, lack of buyers, market mess, and biotech slaughter made for a 'perfect storm' for walking the price lower. Then, walla banga bongo - good news and 5 million shares traded! These are not small fry waking up -- but an almost perfectly executed strategy. Wish I had the smarts to play the game -- but he I am holding with an average SP of $2.11...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 20, 2016 10:16 AM Flag

    @dallasman1956 -- well, if you've done what you say you have accomplished with $SYN -- then congratulations big time! I grew up in a different market and its been a real challenge for me. I understand algo and hedge fund trading -- but gosh, who in the heck is selling today with the 010 news so strong? It would seem that there would not have been enough buyers earlier in the $1.40 - $1.50 range to be selling those shares today. Retail longs weak hands would have already folded or stubborn, stupid LTBH gumbies like me would not be selling at these levels.

    Appreciate your comments,

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 19, 2016 3:14 PM Flag

    Well the oil thesis is as good as any to explain the 50% drop from the mid-December highs when we had some 004 and 010 read outs... And yes, biotechs are down but NO WHERE near as much as Synthetic...
    So, my guess is this selloff is because the company has left way too much uncertainty on the table and failed to make ANY partnership relationship. Otherwise here are some guesses:

    1) Stock is easy prey for walking the price lower to eventually achieve buying just prior to the upcoming announcements on 010 and 004...

    2) Biotech will be blamed for every order of miss-function in our health care system. Socialists want socialized medicine while tea-baggers want to start over with a fresh nothing -- not realizing that flush now and plan later will be unimaginatively disruptive to health care sector. Health insurance and healthcare has had to adjust to Obamacare. Biotech and pharma has been established along a quasi-capitalist system with ability to invest and build new drugs with the hope of return on that investment. Not a kindly backdrop for 2016...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • Reply to

    Q4 CC ..

    by agubagu77 Jan 14, 2016 8:39 AM
    dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 14, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    agubagu77 -- yes these are time that test us. Having been an investor for over 40 years, it's still hard to understand the impact of algo traders, hedge funds, and ETFs on the market. In the short term, there is absolutely no rational pricing action -- especially in the small caps. When the IBB goes down over 4 % yesterday, this is wholesale sector destruction. Retail investors get scared and panic because of the sharp fall off. But Synthetic is its own worst enemy, IHMO. Riley botched the Monday investor presentation big time and they have failed to attract any real institutional or partner interests. That makes no sense to me. The simple answer can only mean that people are not yet convinced with 004 or 010. They clearly are waiting for P3 which can only mean significant capital raises. I'm OK with that, but now we're getting closer to needing capital with the SP in the toilet. I'm no OK with that...

    ATVB,
    Don

  • dhdhoora dhdhoora Jan 14, 2016 10:21 AM Flag

    yongreno08 -- I would really appreciate any attempts to directly get face time with someone at Synthetic. I wrote a lengthy e-mail to IR expressing my strong displeasure with JR's performance at the Biotech Showcase and asked that they come clean on Trimesta. The 'keeping mum' strategy has now cost the investors a 60% decline in SP since Dec 1 -- the period after the last good news for a while. Even if they are in negotiations, which I extremely doubt, why would they be forced to stay quiet? Had they fessed up to the Trimesta debacle in the first place, the company could put this behind them. As it is, the overhang of uncertainty is worse than a confession.

    ATVB,
    Don

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