That's impossible to know...The stock price still isn't up to the valuation that we saw in 2007 and the future for SLP is much brighter today than it was then. Also, the current volume is not up to what we were getting at that time. I am still holding all of my shares so in my opinion the future for SLP is very good and we should expect higher sales and higher earnings. Getting a higher valuation at the same time while sales and earnings are going up is about as good as it gets :-) The Cognigen purchase was a really nice addition. Walt basically used 7% of the value of SLP to purchase a 50% revenue increase. The Cognigen margins aren't as high as the Simulations Plus margins but you can bet that they are improving at a steady clip. You can be certain that Walt has lots of stuff these new employees will be working on... and all of it is intended to increase sales while at the same time keeping costs under control. Bottom line... we may see a considerably higher stock price.
SLP is one of the best managed public companies you'll find. Because Walt has so much stock he has never made a decision that would reduce the share value. Years ago he used his private airplane for company business and would not ask for reimbursement... I don't know what the situation is re his airplane today. It's just one of many examples of his sincere dedication to shareholder value. The current stock price appreciation is a result of the obvious you mentioned and it could be that a widely followed news letter may have made a recommendation on SLP. Years ago Louis Navellier put out a "Buy" rec on SLP and the stock took off in a similar way. At this time Navellier does not have a "Buy" rating on SLP so that is not likely part of it today. "The Street" has a very good article on SLP which is probably part of the reason... You can find it at the SLP news listing on yahoo finance. So to answer your question specifically... I am not aware of any particular reason other than " the obvious ". The current valuation is not as high as during the run up in 2007 so possibly we have some more to go :-)
Look at last years 10K and search for "Seasonality". You'll see that Q 4 is typically slower because many of SLP's customers are on summer vacations and tend to defer important business decisions.
Maybe Yahoo will allow the link to be posed...
BTW... The .01 per share increase is on top of a previous .03 per share increase for a total of .04. FY 14 came in at .18 per share and Taglich is forecasting .22 for FY 15. That's an increase of 22%.
Upgrading to Buy from Speculative rating.
Our upgrade reflects SLP’s growth potential,
which should accelerate due to the increasing
use of software tools and analytics for drug
discovery and development, as well as
leveraging its 2014 acquisition of Cognigen
Corp. The collaboration between Cognigen
and SLP scientists has resulted in new and
innovative solutions for its clients’ research
and development programs. The acquisition
and growing client base should translate into
accelerated net income growth.
We forecast income growth accelerating from 4.8% in FY14 to 21.5% in FY15, with growth reaching
32.7% in FY16 (see chart above). FY15 growth stems from the addition of 79 new customers or new
departments within existing customers, up from 75 in FY14, and the acquisition of Cognigen. In FY16 we
project the Simulations Plus division should add 88 new customers or new departments within existing customers.
Customer growth should be driven by the September 2014 release of MembranePlus, which will extend SLP’s
reach further into clinical research departments of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Sales growth
should be driven by price increases on certain software, and customer growth. Profit growth should be primarily
driven by elimination of variable GastroPlus royalty payments, partly offset by $600,000 per year of intellectual
property amortization through 2024.
We are raising our 12-month price target to $9.15 from $7.55 per share. Our price target and dividend yield
imply a total year-ahead return in excess of 35%. The application software, business services, and medical
technology industries’ trailing 12-month EPS multiple increased to 56.6X from 53.5X in April 2015. SLP’s
current forward P/E multiple of 23X (prior was 20.8X) is based on our FY16 EPS forecast of $0.29 per share. We
applied a 35X multiple (prior was 30X) to our FY16 EPS, discounted by 10% to account for execution risk, to
obtain a year-ahead value of $9.15 per share. Google Taglich.
12-13 years ago SLP had a market cap under $ 4 Million... Today the market cap is $ 109 million. That's a " 27 Bagger ". How much higher would you like to fly ???
There is a bit more than a single market buy order... I see 13 after market trades with a 1000 share order at $7.00. Two trades were just under 4000 shares. Total after hours volume is between 10-12,000 shares. It's not huge but shows some positive interest.
That estimate is from Howard Halpern at Taglich Brothers. Over the years he has been very close to reality so I stopped crunching the numbers myself. I found that I don't do it as well as he does.