12-13 years ago SLP had a market cap under $ 4 Million... Today the market cap is $ 109 million. That's a " 27 Bagger ". How much higher would you like to fly ???
There is a bit more than a single market buy order... I see 13 after market trades with a 1000 share order at $7.00. Two trades were just under 4000 shares. Total after hours volume is between 10-12,000 shares. It's not huge but shows some positive interest.
That estimate is from Howard Halpern at Taglich Brothers. Over the years he has been very close to reality so I stopped crunching the numbers myself. I found that I don't do it as well as he does.
Preliminary revenues for the three months ended May 31, 2015 increased 58.8% or $2.20 million to a record $5.94 million, compared to $3.74 million for the same period in 2014.
John DiBella, vice president for marketing and sales of Simulations Plus, said: “Across the board, this was a strong quarter for us. We generated robust sales to new clients in all territories, maintained high software renewal rates, and experienced increased demand for our consulting services. Among the new software license sales, orders were finalized with several new divisions at the U.S. FDA, U.S. EPA, and China FDA, which is encouraging as regulatory agencies around the globe continue to promote the use of modeling and simulation to assist with research and development. With the successful launch of new versions of our flagship products, GastroPlus™ and ADMET Predictor™, coupled with continued progress in the cross-promotion of consulting services with Cognigen, we expect this positive momentum in revenue growth to continue.”
And the Cognigen part is growing !
"Cognigen Corporation 3QFY15 revenues increased 10% to $1.40 million, compared to $1.27 million in the second quarter of this fiscal year. Cognigen revenue has sequentially increased each quarter through the nine months ended May 31, 2015"
90 Million ???? That's over 5 X the number of outstanding shares.. I must have missed my morning coffee !
The correct number is 90,000 shares.
That's more than 4 X the average volume and the stock was up for the day. Maybe we are close to the bottom of the recent price decline and larger investors see good value here.
The margins for the Cognigen part of the business are on their way to getting better...
" May 14-16 - Introductory Workshop in Population PK Data Analysis - A Hands-on Course Using NONMEM® in Niagara Falls, NY. Cognigen will be conducting the workshop. "
In other words Walt is not wasting any time to find productive work for this side of the business. The presentation and workshop activity is a proven model that has generated leads for additional sales.
Walt is VERY conservative... I mean, look at the balance sheet... I'm an engineer and even I can understand it ! The entire business is squeaky clean, no debt and growing. SLP is the company that the best business schools should use as their case model on how to run a business. Getting out of microcap status is hard to do but Walt has made huge progress... I was invested here when the market cap was under $4 million and now we are near $100 million. That's a commendable achievement. They continue to do all the right things so I will continue to hold my shares.
That's impossible to predict... There are too many variables with the most important being the growth/profitability of the company, the investor perception of the future and the direction of the overall market.
I think what's going on right now is an adjustment that investors are putting on the lower operating margins. The Cognigen acquisition is a good fit for SLP but comes with a downside in that it reduces the combined margin of the business. You can be sure that Walt is very tuned into this and is finding productive things for the Cognigen employees to work on that will result in additional sales, earnings and improved margins. The recent addition to the marketing and sales team is a step in this direction. The big question is how long will it take to see the results. Certainly more than 2 or 3 quarters. I think overall SLP is a better business as a result of the acquisition and it will take some time for this to become clear to the investing community. I have a very long term view on this so I am still fully invested in SLP. It is by far my largest position.
If I knew when the stock price bottoms and turns back up I wouldn't be spending time on message boards :-)
GastroPlus 9.0 has been released.
"Already the most widely used program in the world for physiologically based pharmacokinetics (PBPK), the addition of these new capabilities is expected to expand the user base earlier into the research & development process within the pharmaceutical industry, while also helping us further penetrate the biopharmaceuticals, food, cosmetics, and general toxicology markets.”
Simulations Plus is always coming up with new and better offerings for the industry... SLP will be a larger company next year !
Payable on May 18th. The current annual rate is over 3%. Not bad in a zero rate environment.
There are actually many places where you can "invest" for a negative return... Yes... you have to pay them to hold your money! JP Morgan and Citi recently announced that they are no longer allowing cash to be used for certain payments and that cash is not allowed to be held in safety deposit boxes. The thinking is that negative rates can be applied to digital accounts/transactions but not to actual notes as in cash.
Anyway... It's nice to see that SLP continues to share it's success and good fortunes with the share holders.
Key Investment Considerations:
Maintaining Speculative Buy rating and lowering our 12-month price target to $7.55 from $8.50 per share due
to diminished sector valuations.
SLP’s growth will be driven by the increasing use of software tools and analytics for drug discovery and
development. The September 2014 acquisition of privately held Cognigen Corporation is boosting revenue.
Cognigen provides a detailed understanding of the behavior of complex systems for disease biology and drug
pharmacology during Phase I through IV of clinical drug development. Cognigen should generate sales of at
least $4.7 million in FY15.
Simulations Plus shares are suited for risk-tolerant investors seeking exposure to a micro cap software
company targeting research scientists in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and drug development sectors.
Yahoo will not let me post the report... Google Taglich.
Go to the SLP web site and click on "Investors" and select " Conference calls ". It's good to see that Cognigen is making a contribution to earnings... I expect that their margins will improve and investors that are patient will be well rewarded.
Buying or selling stock by insiders requires a form 4 to be posted at the SEC web site.
Can you provide us with a link that shows stock sales? Thanks.
Insider stock transactions are required by law to be reported at the SEC web site. There are no sales reported... No form 4's indicating sales. Why do you think insiders are selling? Where is the evidence?
The last time an insider reduced their stock position was on Aug 28, 2014. This was when Virginia Woltoz GIFTED 119,000 shares. sec dot gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000122252714000001/xslF345X03/primary_doc.xml In other words the shares weren't even sold... They were given as a gift.
But I could be wrong about this, if you would be kind enough to provide us with a link that confirms your opinion, Thanks.
Yes, the strong US$$ does impact earnings. But, it seems to be a modest amount. For the Q ending November the amount was $7790 which represents a little bit over 1% of " Income from operations ". So it is real but doesn't look like it changes the big picture. You can see this amount identified as "Loss on currency exchange" by looking at the 10Q at the SEC web site.
sec dot gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000101968715000187/slp_10q-113014.htm
Preliminary revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2015 were $4.544 million, compared to $3.081 million for the same period in 2014, this represents an increase of 47.5% or $1.462 million. $1.241 million of the 2QFY15 revenues increase is attributed to Cognigen Corporation, which was acquired at the beginning of the 2015 fiscal year.
There is an additional $250,000 in revenues that got pushed into the first week of the next quarter. This will be a nice bump for the following reporting period.
Go to the SLP web site and select "Events" and then " Conferences ". The SLP scientists will be attending 8 sessions this month... That's averaging 2 per week. There is something new as well...
"March 7-14 - IEEE Aerospace Conference 2015 in Big Sky, MT. Simulations Plus will be attending and presenting the following papers:
"Near Real-time Characterization of Unknown Missiles in Flight Using Computational Intelligence"
"Rapid Calculation of Missile Aerodynamic Coefficients Using Artificial Neural Networks"
And that's not all... Looking under the " Workshops " section there is a long itinerary all the way into October.
SLP continues to grow.
There was a lot of discussion at the time that the dividend was being considered. If I remember correctly the general consensus was that investors wanted Walt, the CEO, to use the money and his management skills to grow the company faster instead. I believe that Walt gave that route serious consideration given the fact that he has constantly been in discussions with potential acquisition candidates. The reason that there have not been more business acquisitions is because the criteria that has been set for a good fit makes them very difficult to find. Not only does the business need to " fit " the SLP model but it must also be available at a reasonable price and have promise to add to sales and earnings of the core SLP business. Walt is very conservative, which is evident by looking at the financial results. Prior to the Cognigen acquisition there were only about 23,000 shares issued for growing the business. Still today there is zero debt.
OK... So why not just hire a bunch of PhDs and tell them to go to work on growing the business. I'm certain that if it were that simple Walt would jump at the chance. The problem is the required set of skills necessary to produce the SLP offerings... A basic requirement is a person with a detailed understanding of chemistry, a serious dose of biology along with the math and analytical skills AND the ability/desire to create software models that produce meaningful results. SLP almost always has employment openings available for engineers and chemists that have the required skills... they are far and few between. And suppose that they could actually come up with a significant number of chemists that posses the required skills... As the saying goes... You can't put 9 women to task to create a baby in one month.
So... The way to return some of the good results to the share holders is via a dividend. I am confident that even with the dividend payment that SLP will continue to grow as it has in the past.