How does that take rate chart look to you guys?
How do you think it looks to the market?
Any longs want to make a guess how TOP LINE REVENUES are going to report next week?
Quarterly on Year over Year?
I'll predict a LOSS on the Bottom Line
Well Biddy, your observation may be accurate about the major investors being restricted from selling, and the selling may be small investors and margin accounts.
AND the major investors....they have FROZEN assets and have an impaired net worth. But worse; a LOT of uncertainty in the economy and their financial well being. The big boys don't feel as rich any more either. There are analogies being made by analysts that this looks like our stock market in 1929.
You are ignoring a more enduring problem for luxury car case in China for the last year and a half--the anticorruption campaign has dampened sales for everybody in the luxury market. Mercedes is no exception.
You cheerleading longs are in for a big disappointment this Fall and Winter when REFR turns in its financial results and you get to listen to more of Joe's excuses about licenses not selling product (and Joe says"What do you expect me to do?")
Ah, the beauty of your licensing business model. "It isn't my fault" says Joe.
Be ready for more selling and higher volumes of shares traded. The reason REFR is trading at $5.15 right now is the market knows Joe is set for failure (again) this year. Expect to see $5.00 challenged in the next few days. Call it a buying opportunity. "Back up the truck" as they used to say in 2002. But Joe FAILED.
I am afraid that one of the problems at REFR is the weak hands that are on the Board of Directors. I have never been convinced that they are willing or able to offer much to management, and are afraid to voice a contrary opinion to Joe.
Who is on the BOD?
A Hermes scarf salesman
An Auto Repair guy
A Shrimp and bait salesman
And in the mean time the top five employees at REFR collect annual compensation that exceeds total revenue annually. And the CEO, CFO and the BOD are all happy. How are YOU guys doing?
Grab some jelly and spread it around and a coke so you can wash down your dusty words and those of of few other longs from the past year on this thread.
"You know it is not about the sales, yet..." Cyberne on 715/15
Nov. 8, 2014 "Hopefully sales will increase (for 2015) to 8-10 million (this is just my wild guess)" CYBERNE
LESTER Oct. 2, 2014 "What is happening now is enough for profitablity by mid 2015"
Jeffondalake Nov 7 2104 "Seems plausible to have at least $25 Million sasles in FY 2015 given auto and earo..."
LESTER, (Numerous times in Q1 & @ in 2014) "Huge profits are right around the corner with the inevitable large take rate on the S Class."
Please do not forget Dixon's weekly CHART on SI of take rates and the corresponding royalty stream in 2015 that assures big sales and even profitability.
And yesterday Cyberne changes the tune..."IT IS NOT ABOUT SALES (and certainly NOT about profits)"
"It is about ACCEPTANCE OF SPD TECHNOLOGY..."
I though we did the whole "acceptance" thing back in the early 2000's. Are we going full circle?
Anyone see the Seeking Alpha article by Value Ideas on BMW sales in China that came out this morning?
Let me recap:
BMW deliveries in China declined in May and June ( I know Ferrari is way down YoY, and probably Benz too)
The Chinese market has disappointed most foreign auto companies (including M-B)
Sales have dropped due to slow growth in the economy and the anti corruption campaign
Sales have especially dropped off for high line luxury cars (not good for the S Class)
Prices are being "slashed" (the old Maybach used to be $500K)
"The Chinese are now placing utility before luxury"
Adding to the woes is the Chinese stock market crash
Inventories are building...especially on high end luxury cars (oops, that will slow down Q3&4)
"Like BMW, other premium care makers are grappling with the headwinds blowing across the auto industry in China."
Porsche is "downsizing their offerings, providing more image sensitive Chinese customers-due to corruption reforms-with modest luxury". (Portends badly for M-B on the new S-Class too)
So how does this impact REFR?
Tepid top line results at REFR in Q2 with a big million dollar loss.
No growth on the top line in Q3 & 4 and continued losses of a $1MM per quarter.
Maybe next year?
Did someone say "China"?
I think the REFR and Mercedes hopes for the S-Class sales in China are "kaput".
Here is why:
The anti corruption policies of the last year have put a damper on conspicuous consumption of luxury goods.
Everyone's sales of high end cars has fallen off in the last year. I believe S Class sales in China will disapoint.
The stock market melt-down in China has just started to errode wealth. It is also eroding confidence. Cash is going to be "king". Talk to any high line car dealer--they will tell you the most significant driver of sales is a rising stock market. China has a stock market that is as of today 50% of all stock are suspended from trading. The herd mentality will crash the bubble and kill the sense of confidence to expend scarce dollars on a luxury item.
Okay let's see what yesterday shows:
"Shorts are trapped" NOT SO! Nearly 350K share volume yesterday and the stock is at $5.37 down 10% plus in a week.
There is enthusiasm for Mercedes and the Magic Sky....NO, the stock price is down closer to its years low than the years high.
The 500 Maybach's in China....NO evidence of the cars impacting REFR...or it is already "baked in" to the price per share.
Shortie is nervous....NO....the price is down, no sign that covering--if any--impacted the demand for shares
Tim Syles is back....Possible
Buying spree? No...a selling spree...the price of the stock is DOWN
Get yourselves ready for more disappointing quarterly results.
China catches a cold and REFR catches the flu.
No profits this year.
"manana" READ, 'not now....later!"
And the best part is.............drum roll please...................................
The Zuli smart plug will be available.....................................................................S-O-O-N
SOON!!! Soon fits right into Joe's business model.
PS: The Apple App 1.0.3 just came out yesterday!
What a cool idea Joe!
Zuli was a great choice....a lot better choice than say, Aeotec an Aeon Labs Company. Aeotec is already in full production and already selling smart product for controlling the environment in the home and office. The term is "The internet of Things" and Aeotec uses Z-wave technology. Companies like Silicon Labs (SLAB) are busy marketing first generation chips, (the Gekko) and developing low power and power on demand only micro chips for operating such devices. And Aeotec is developing a smart glass film of their own (that is not SPD).
Joe; What took you so long to realize that you needed this?
Wasn't BMW supposed to announce, today, that the new 2016 7 Series was going to have SPD in a panoramic sunroof?
NOT A WORD TODAY FROM BMW.
Oh, I know, its the same old REFR chorus:
MANANA (Texmex for not now, later)
WAIT, JUST A LITTLE LONGER
BMW WANTS TO "SURPASS" THE MERCEDES S-CLASS
More and more excuses from the Cheerleading section and the Dance Line (Slip, Glide and Pirouette)
REFR has such a "unique" licensing model that I am surprised that to buy an SL from a M-Benz dealer that the individual car buyer doesn't first have to get a license from REFR.
Everybody seems to have to have a "license":
The film maker
The the window fabricator
The seller of the end product.
The buyer of the end product too??
Is that how Quallcomm works?
You must be Joe Harary (the Pres of REFR) because your every reply talks about what could, might and perhaps happen...."soon". Beautiful job in your rebuttals of slipping around the truth, gliding past nasty vacancies in the business in North America, and pirouetting past weaknesses in the business model.Let's not forget to mention most of the highly paid staff rarely report to the corporate office.
Here is what you say you have going for REFR:
Licensees that "could" sell SPD product------BUT THEY DO NOT. As Clara said, "Where's the Beef?"
Mercedes has three models------BUT REFR REVENUES ARE LOWER THAN IN 2013
BMW is coming out with a SPD roof-----AND THE SHORT INTEREST IS UP--Yawn!
Lincoln is a new licensee---BOY THAT REALLY MOVED REFR STOCK, NO?
The World's Fair US Pavillion has SPD glass-----AND THE STOCK PRICE HAS DROPPED SINCE
Vision Systems can't provide windows with SPD at large scale----WHERE IS THE REVENUE?
Currency issues----FORD'S LINCOLN PRODUCTS DON'T SELL, STYLING IS TOO ICONIC (GOOFY?)
Currency Issues--THERE WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH THE EURO FOR AT LEAST A YEAR
China sales--THE ANTI CORRUPTION CAMPAIGN IS WEAKENING LUXURY CAR SALES ON ALL BRANDS
The business model give credit to management for what works and blames the licensees for all the disappointments in marketing and revenues.
And so we have a company with $3000.00/day salaries to the top 5 execs and top line revenues that struggle to meet $3000.00/day
REFR stock price---stuck in a mid range of its year high and year low. Volume is tepid. Generally there is a lack of belief in your "STORY STOCK" except among the long abused orthodox "believers" waiting for the next set-back and disappointment and excuse. We are already seeing on Yahoo and SI the "Faithful" excusing the pending results for Q2 2015....."but wait until Q3" they say.....Yeah, just wait & wait & wait & wait &.....
The devil is still in the details...and you are smart enough to know how to glide, slip and pirouette around the details that you do not like. So here are my corrections and expansions to your incomplete answers:
1) Currency exchange rates don't affect Lincoln--ah, but Mercedes is where 90% of all REFR revenues come from...IN EUROPE.
2) But the "take rate" nevertheless does decline after the first model year. So this years will be the best year for the S- Class and then it will inevitably slip, like the SL and SLK. You are luck they renewed for the SL. And with 10% take rates, I'm glad you are so easily pleased.
3) And the point is, you get $125 per car, except on the limited production large cars with panoramic glass. OK
4) The glass is at least $200.00 per sq.ft. and EC is about $60.00 sq.ft. It is hard to find a authoritative source for north America since no one is offering SPD for architecture.
5) AGP, LTI and Traco are licensees and they are NOT READY TO DELIVER ANYTHING SPD--try and buy some. Flim would have to be air freighted. Lead times would be uncertain at best. Nothing happening.
6) Vision Systems little 15,000 sq.ft. facility (with less than a couple thousand foot clean room) is not set up to do thousands of windows...it is set up to do hundreds per year. The facility mostly does a lot of other aircraft window products that do not include SPD. I have been to this Melbourne facility and their focus, according to them, is Bombardier. That is why they located in Melbourne. Wanna know how many employees they have in Melbourne? It is in the teens. No comparison to the PPG facility in Huntsville.
Set, Game and Match.
Yes, something to chew on indeed. And with an analytic mind it will come back up like bad potoato salad at a summer time picnic.
REFR is still a company with $3000.00/day revenues and $3000.00/day compensation to the top five executives. Chew on that--tough a beef jerky.
And your cup of the Cool-aide is at the far picnic table. Go say a prayer and take a nap after reading what R. Class said.
The alternative way of looking at R.Class reality is that revenues are declining since the pinnacle year in 2013.
The devil in the details is:
1) Currency exchange rates are hurting REFR
2) It seem the first year of a model is the big volume year and then everything tails off from there
3) The royalty rate per car has dropped from $250.00 in 2013 to $150.00 per car this year.
4)Architecture will be a long, long time in coming. The glass costs north of $200.00/sq/ft.
5) There is no North American laminator for large plate glass currently able to do SPD
6) Airline industry has no infrastructure in North America for Boeing. The only company is focused on Bombardier.
7) Management for 30+ years has been "confident" (take a look at how long it took this company to have its first year of million dollar revenues.
8) SPD has been licenced to some of the largest glass companies in the world AND THEY ARE NOT MAKING OR SELLING ANYTHING with SPD technology. That is why this is a company that has total revenues of only $100,000.00 per month.
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.
Hope you were buying this morning....boat has left without you.
Ask refr.class who is manipulating it back UP
This is just a company that can't get top line revenue to get back to the high water level of 2013.
Maybe Joe can cut expenses just a little more to keep losses down (still way below breakeven).
Cyberne--You must work at REFR....because that is the only context where a post that took 85 seconds to write could be considered; "Hard at work...."
And we are so blessed here....refr.class "knows" that it was the shorts manipulating the market in REFR. My guess? Someone wanted to stop eating skunk...so they sold it...to YOU.
I never said, on any social media, that REFR used chickens with eight legs to make SPD glass.
So why the big drop in the share price today?
Someone at C-H know something material?
News from Boeing?
Is there a problem with some "standard options"?
Is someone building something better?
Was there a problem at the US Pavillion?
Hey, the revenue run rate is on track to be $1.5 to $1.6 MM for FY 2015...that is only a little less than last year (but last year is in the past!, so is the year before and so is 2012--all years that had more than $1.5 MM in top line revenues).
Where is the revenue growth?