Should one of the bolded predictions hit, the travails of Greek and Irish bondholders will be nothing compared to what those unlucky enough to be in possession of US debt in 2015 will have to go through.
US debt in the year 2015 will probably make many stop dead in the their tracks. If anyone thought that $14 trillion in 2010 debt is bad, just wait until we hit $24.5 trillion in total US national debt in 2015. And it gets even more surreal: total US Unfunded Liabilities are estimated at $144 trillion, roughly $1.2 million per taxpayer... Was that a pin dropping?
As Zero Hedge has long been predicting, we anticipate roughly $2 trillion in incremental debt per year. Surprisingly we are not far too off from where the "debt clock" sees US leverage in 5 years. At an estimated $24.5 trillion in federal debt, our $2 trillion per year run rate is spot on. Another thing that is spot on: our prediction that the US will need not one but two debt ceiling increases in 2011. And probably 6-8 over the next 5 years.
Some other observations for the US economy in 2015 simply assuming current conditions persist:
Federal spending will be $3.3 trillion per year, and with federal revenue of $2.3 trillion (this number will be reduced as it also assumes $731 billion in payroll tax, a number which will likely be indefinitely reduced) the result is a budget deficit of $983.7 billion.
Annual Medicare/Medicaid expenses will be just over $1 trillion
US population: 326.8 million
US workforce 131.3 million (and declining)
Officially unemployed: 19.4 million
Actual unemployed: 22.3 million
State/Federal employees: 17.9 million
People on SSN and other retirees: 72.6 million
And the most critical data:
Food stamp recipients: 89.7 million
Foreclosures: 2 million
Social Security Liability: $19 trillion
Medicare Liability: $99 trillion
Total US Unfunded Liabilities: $144 trillion
Gross Debt to GDP: 143%
Should one of the bolded predictions hit, the travails of Greek and Irish bondholders will be nothing compared to what those unlucky enough to be in possession of US debt in 2015 will have to go through............
At the end of FY 2015 the total government debt in the United States, including federal, state, and local, is expected to be $21.845 trillion.
EU -IMF - FED ....recession+ Inflation leads GOLD ....GOLD ....& GOLD ....but PHYSICAL GOLD.
Contrave some analysts predict it'll grow to surpass its first-to-market rivals with $1.5 billion in sales by 2020. If it does, Orexigen will have marketing partner Takeda to thank:
As a result of this crisis, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, is caught in a horrible bind. He is itching to kick off a trillion-euro blast of quantitative easing on January 22 to head off the deflationary forces that threaten to lock the eurozone into a Japanese-style trap. To make any difference, this must entail the purchase of sovereign debt. Yet Mr Draghi can hardly agree to buy Greek bonds three days before the likely election of a party that has vowed to repudiate that same debt. Nor can he exclude Greece.
Gold is going to be the sovereign currency in Europe after Greece departure and Italy, Spain and other 2 or 3 countries are already lined up to exit from Eurozone.
there a range of leading indicators that gold is set to rally, including growing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, increased demand, and the failure of QE. The share prices of those gold miners with quality assets, low-cost operations, and solid balance sheets will rebound heavily....
Yamana Gold the problem for the last quarter results was Chilean Tax added to single quarter but offset balance sheet this quarter.
Yamana continues to grow gold production, with third quarter 2014 production up a healthy 27% year-over-year.
This not only allows Yamana to compensate for lower gold prices through increased production, but leaves it well positioned to take full advantage of any rebound in the price of gold.
Yamana acquired a 50% share in the Canadian Malartic gold mine ealier this year, with the remaining 50% acquired by Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSX: AEM)(NYSE: AEM). This acquisition is a potential game changer for Yamana. It has significantly boosted its gold production in the lower risk jurisdiction of Canada, while reducing its dependence on gold produced in higher risk jurisdictions in South America.
The mine also has some of the lowest operating costs and highest ore grades of any gold mine in Canada, with Yamana and Agnico jointly exploring options to improve efficiencies at the mine. As a result Yamana and Agnico are focused on completing a range of cost-cutting and operational improvements at the mine that will ramp up production and see both cash costs and ASICs fall.
This will give Yamana access to high quality ore grades and low production costs as the initiatives are completed, which will have a significant positive impact on its bottom-line.
Finally, Yamana retains a solid balance sheet with a relatively low degree of leverage.
At the end of the third quarter 2014, Yamana had net debt of US$1.8 billion and US$169 million in cash on hand and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.3. The strength of its balance sheet is very STRONG....
The net long position of speculative traders in US Comex gold futures and options grew to the equivalent of 408 tonnes by 30 December – twice as large as the speculative net long at end-2013.
US derivatives exchange group the CME today said it will launch a 1-kilo gold futures contract in Hong Kong on 26 January, claiming it will "provide price discovery in this key Asia bullion trading hub to market participants around the world, virtually 24 hours a day."
"Gold surprisingly firm," says South Africa's Standard Bank, whose commodities unit is being bought by China's ICBC.
"Given stronger USD, lower yields, lower oil and lower inflation expectations; it does not make sense for gold to be up here."
On the contrary, says investment bank and London market maker HSBC, "The ability of gold to track higher...may mean investors are beginning to view EUR-USD and/or oil declines as disorderly, prompting safe haven buying in gold.
"Another explanation is that equity-price declines were significant enough to promote more than offsetc
The Greece safe haven trade has resulted in short covering in gold and silver. The situation in Europe is far from over. The French president has called for an end to Russian sanctions. These are all positive news for gold and silver. Short sellers of gold and silver are using dips to exit their positions. This is the best time for gold and silver. I keep my fingers crossed.
US dollar ready to crash as the ratio in growth of US$ against further rise in 18 trillions US Debt verses present GDP ........no analyst making this point!
Gilbert Sr. worked on Wall Street for more than 40 years, according to his profile on Wainscott's website, and he previously co-founded Syzygy Therapeutics, a biotech asset acquisition fund. He also was founder and CEO of an online teacher education company called Knowledge Delivery Systems Inc.
Wainscott, which invests in biotechnology and health care stocks, had no immediate comment Monday. The fund focuses on stocks traded on large exchanges like the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange, and the minimum amount for investors is $500,000.
Investors could be forgiven for wanting to throw in the towel and take a tax loss to apply against gains in stronger parts of their portfolios, but that might not be the best move right now.
With gold prices indicating they might have hit a bottom, Yamana is growing production at a healthy clip. In its Q3 2014 earnings statement, Yamana reported record production of 391,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEO). The result was a 27% gain over the same period in 2013, driven by strength at several of the company’s properties.
Yamana’s market cap is only about $4.3 billion. An argument could be made that the sum of the parts is greater than the whole right now and that could make Yamana a takeout target if the outlook for gold starts to improve. With that in mind, Yamana might be worth holding if you already own it.
The stock currently trades at about $5 per share. A move toward $10 would require a big shift in gold prices. For the price to hit $15, there would have to be a takeover battle for the company