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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

dirklp44 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 16, 2014 8:10 AM Member since: Nov 12, 2009
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  • dirklp44 by dirklp44 Sep 16, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    . . . is on "Dancing with the Stars" this season. Maybe viewers will look her up and buy more clothes.

  • Reply to

    TC on C&M

    by bestguesser Aug 11, 2014 8:32 AM
    dirklp44 dirklp44 Aug 11, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Got it, thanks. Yep, stupid mistake.

  • Reply to

    TC on C&M

    by bestguesser Aug 11, 2014 8:32 AM
    dirklp44 dirklp44 Aug 11, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    Ultra, what am I doing wrong? Using your numbers, I'm coming up with net loss of $42 million for 2015.

    MM revenue = $456mm
    MM opex = $266mm (this is high, as I'm using "$280mm" as base)
    Moly margin = $25mm
    LMC margin = $20mm
    Int. exp. = $89mm (debt, leases, equip. loans - all of it)
    Debt service = 32.6mm (leases, equip. loans)
    Capex = $30mm (no secondary crushing)
    SGA = $36mm
    Depr. exp. = 90mm

    456-266+25+20-89-32.6-30-36-90 = -42.6/220 million shares = ($.19)/share

    Hopefully, I'm making a stupid mistake somewhere. Am I including something that should be used to calculate net income?

  • I'm long here - and have been for quite some time. However, today's discussion threw me for a loop - as it seemed with the analysts. It's not about EPS at this point. Say in 2015, they average 90% of their design for gold and copper at Milligan = 236,000 oz and 80 million pounds, respectively. Gold at $1,300, copper at $3.20 and I come up with about $456 million in revenue. $240 million on the cost side = $216 million left. Add another $18 million gross profit from moly operations, which might be a stretch.

    Assume $60 million in capex, $90 million in interest, $45 million in C&M (or slow stripping, whichever you choose) = $195 million (bear with me - I'm back-of-the-napkining this right now).

    $216 million in cash currently . . . how do you meet your debt obligations without restructuring? No moly for two years? You've got to be kidding me! That was the straw that broke the camel's back today.

    Then they talk about spending $75 million for Milligan upgrades, but can't find $80 million for TC. With moly at $13/lb and moly costs at TC at $4/lb, wouldn't you get more mileage out of using the $75 million to strip phase 8? I'm baffled . . .

    While it was a good quarter, it does nothing if they don't have the money to repay their debt a few years down the road.

  • Reply to

    Q2 estimate

    by carlrich Jul 14, 2014 7:35 PM
    dirklp44 dirklp44 Jul 15, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    My numbers are in line with yours, Carl - almost dead on for revenue. Also, they will likely use the 171 million share figure for the quarter, which means nothing when it comes down to it, but on the surface will make the per share earnings look better.

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