I think the answer to that was pretty clear in last Q's CC - that said, last q was by most metrics a "bad" q - yet the stock has surged b/c of some significant margin and shrink improvements under new leadership.
So I guess it's in how you define "bad" at this stage for this particular company.
Actually, from my perspective there is a reason. You are projecting and I am and have been for sometime concerned about the fragility of your ego. Projection is a psychological defense utilized to protect one's sense of self or ego, particularly at times when they perceive their ego is threatened.
I am not in competition with you but our timelines w respect to my interest in this stock started in the mid 7's - for about 9 months you were a frequent poster as to what you considered a falling knife that would not stop until bankruptcy = 0$
You are free to characterize the surge from 2.12 to these levels any way you like but the point is you were wrong and seemingly lacked the integrity to admit so than or now.
I always listened to your views, weighed them against my own, and kept accumulating sub 3 - so again, if you want to talk about winners, I'd be happy to show you where I stand, but, I am more interested in character - an area where you have let a bunch of us down.
Good luck turning that around. I hope you find happiness one day.
Char5es - been some time. Perhaps you should start off by aknowledging your mistaken view on price action - you may have regained credibility.
You have no concept off book what the appeal of this company is to suitors pre bankruptcy.
Furthermore, debt is often a profitable or positive attribute - remember the mortgage crisis?
According to speculation it would be an equity stake/position - at a discounted rate.. Though this would be my least preferable option, it would be fine.
I have always maintained Kroger as the likely buyer however today's rumor mill suggests private equity either financing or purchasing full out and taking business private(which most realize is the least resistant path to long term profitability)... Stay tuned and look out for enormous drops and spikes.
Well, the real question here is whether or not Kroger would be interested in the market/tri state area... where they currently have no presence... If the answer is yes, I would argue that Fairway is the obvious choice because of their growing infastructure that services the surrounding area... also, Fairway is in not really a play on the organic boom, it's really a play on fairway's particular model which quite frankly is very different from WFM...
All that said, perhaps Kroger would want to buy Gristides instead(might make more sense in some ways) - arguably - but I could assure you, even though they do 1/3 the revenue with more than double the store count - their owner is not looking to sell cheap...
Yes, no question, that would be correct - I believe I wasn't clear or nuanced enough with what I was trying to express... There are many metrics you can use to evaluate revenue and many metrics that are used to do so in the supermarket industry... One of the more hyped metrics, particularly because it is a metric that is most closely coupled with the natural organic boom, a boom that Whole Foods has not only spawned, but for the most part owned - a boom that has also led to traditional grocers such as Kroger to emulate and introduce the organic platform in their own evolving models - is PRICE PER SQ FT of retail space.
This metric is a barometer of customer volume and consumer transactions and in my opinion the best way to measure a brand's popularity.
It is also a metric that Fairway dominates. Though some might argue that it is a skewed metric in Fairway's case as roughly half of their stores are urban and thus more frequented - what some people overlook is that their suburban locations, though not as staggering with respect to their competition in urban areas, continues to perform on the top tier - along with venues such as Whole Foods and Stew Leondards.
Fairway's elite level of brand popularity brings with it certain intangible strengths that often get overlooked - though it has yet to translate to profitability, when fully understood and utalized by management, popularity of brand is the nucleus of most leading retail companies.
Lastly Kroger's 100billion in revenue comes from roughly 2500 supermarkets along with 800 convenience stores and 300 jewley stores... But let's for arguments sake, as you seem to suggest, that all that money comes ONLY from supermarkets... Kroger would still be making approx 15million less per store per year than Fairway.
Not really sure about that... though they tried to buy Fairway in 2004 well before they went public, their continuous, recent, and planned future expansion into NYC would suggest otherwise.
Kroger from my perspective has always been the obvious suitor.
When you say Sterling is going to want their money back, what do you mean? Are you suggesting that Sterling has not made their initial investment in Fairway back?
Do have any idea how much Sterling has made off of Fairway?
I am not trying to insult you - but what you are implying indicates that you may be a total idiot.
As a long term holder, perhaps I could offer you some more reasonable sounding reasons to sell this stock than what you are suggesting.
Let me know if you're interested.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The reality is the guy was brutally honest, calm yet confident, while laying out an uncomplicated formula towards longstanding growth within an industry that he is obviously more than familiar. To say his presence marked a drastic change from former management would be an understatement.
Oh, and in 90+ days he backed it all up.
75pct q over q ebitda growth is substantial.
nickels and pennies.
1pct in this business and particularly at their unprescented customer volume i$ meaningful.
He also aknowledged headwinds - eg wfm on ues - though I felt he may have overstated the pct hit fwm ues will take.
long and strong.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree they will likely not be profitable in 6 months - but much of that will have to do with severance terms. Need to look through Glickberg's parting package again but I am fairly certain he must sell all or most of his stock in the next 14 days which will likely help short position and add to my long.
Again, not sure you listened to the conf call but they talked about their new strategy on expansion - building smaller stores for less. In fact they raised enough to do so this qtr. Murphy could not have been clearer that this is no longer about the mirage of overnight expansion. This is about continuing to correct the underline isoperational sues - go after the nickels and dimes - expand slowly - I do not care about 6 months - I care about ten years and in that time I love the odds that this business will be worth at least ten times what it is now.
Again, you are not paying attention, you are sticking to an old narrative that was meaningfully put aside tonight, despite trader mentality that will likely persist...
Murphy was what he is - the solution. If you had listened to the CC you might realize this was not about year over year, this was about QUARTER OVER QUARTER... This was about stopping the blood flow that they can control and genuinely restating what the correct path must be... slow and steady... nickels and pennies.
Qover Q ebitda up 75pct - that's not the norm with respect to the old narrative. That's PROGRESS. Industry standard progress that will translate over time. That is reality.
Why else do you suppose once combative analysts CONGRATULATED THE GUY!
Absolutely will buy hand over fist again if/when it dips below 3 - also not sure you understand the industry as you allege to. For starters, you do realize debt is still where it was approx 24 months ago?