But the war rests on one factor. Grass roots branding and expanding forcing doctors to address by word of mouth while being big enough to sustain any opposing views. Youth usage I am guessing at this point is likely very heavy patients under 40. If revenue grows(which it should) in tandem with increasing age of average, patient/user then I would be a strong buyer. Also, I actually need to meet someone who uses to better postulate how much of a game changer. My hunch is allot.
Let me just state, I am long, but, your statement somewhat misleading with respect to the pfizer thing. Whether or not the guy is washed up is not what's important to the short thesis. It's the failure of exhubra and the fears that afrezza carries with it the same risks that let to exhubra's ultimate demise.
From my research, the risks are far less than exhubra but the shorts are playing the fear factor which is not always goverened by human rationale - rather natural law.
Certainly some of the most passionate and paranoid longs I have come across. Just looking at this situation simply and with some objectivity, my first thought is that there is way too much deconstruction amplification day to day, that it feels as if some truly feel they are in a war.
Of all the data and speculation out there, it seems to me, from an industry perspective, the final cycle through of Lantus prior to its generic saturation was SNY's primary and consolidated focus.
Moving forward there is no reason why they will not continue their measured approach in order to best nurture what they have bet will be a replacement candidate.
Be assured, SNY is doing everything they should be doing, moving forward to expiedently but realisticly re-establish what will be a loss of market share and revenue once the generic cycling of lantus hits.
short interest will likely pick up based on my experience. It can be shocking to the point where you feel like cashing the loss or writing it off in your head. This is worthy of a long term holding and I am itching to get back in at lower prices.
I don't think any honest investor with integrity would argue that Fairway's brand is weak. Personally, I continue to believe its intense brand appeal and presence in market has and will continue to anchorany urban ecosystem with a fairway.It is hard to dispute that any apartment listed for sale near a Fairway will not have some added intrinsic value based on its proximity. Their brand and pricing is their future at the moment.
That said this quarter will be impacted by the ues. Mngmt felt that it will be a temporary but sustainable set back and this could drop lower - if it does, below 3, it may not stay in that range long, depending on how earnings are interpreted - their will be vision into p.e and a need to see if Murphy is still improving operational cost on the same level - (nickels, and pennies).
This is a great company risk reward - but they will always be better under 3 if you are lucky enough to get them at that price to either avg down or initiate.
I held this all the way down to 2.12 avging down from 7.60. It was stressful but I remain happy that I could pull a nice profit. I plan to get back in if given the chance. I am making an assumption that there is a good chance of this happening. If I am wrong I live with it.
Do not panic sell - just research.
Their initial offer for 3 or 4 nyc stores was around half that I think, about 12 yrs ago but again, they shifted stratagy. this is something anyone invested in this company should know.
No they won't. They already tried to bid for fairway in the early 2000's - they were rebuffed and have since taken on a measured and aggressive counter approach by opening markets in areas where Fairway was the lone wolf. This has become a short term problem for fwm and will continue to be until the cycle concludes. UES is going to be hit hard this qrtr - bklyn has yet to recover - next up, harlem...
Not sure why WFM after now committing to these areas b/c of fairway, would suddenly shift back to take out mode. That would make their managment look kind of aimless.
KR maybe but p.e is best case scenario unless it's a pipe deal(which is not that bad)
Getting back in after earnings if i can.
No. That is incorrect. The broader tenor of the industry favors an LBO or merger. That said I sold my position 3 weeks ago for a nice profit and will not buy again until after earnings. If something were to transpire between now and than - good for longs.
I love this brand. I think this brand is a great long term risk reward. I also think the ceo is the right guy. I have been hopeful each and every quarter going into earnings for the last 5 quarters and pretty much each one has been surprisingly worse than I expected. I am pretty sure this quarter is hopeless with respect to revenue. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe this time it will surprise to the upside but I would not count on it.
Did you listen to last q's cc? Going forward, margins may continue to improve but the ceo himself when asked projected a 30pct initial loss of revenue with respect to the ues, their 2nd highest grossing store. No margin improvement on any scale will make up for that. And it's not like he was basing this on speculation. He, like everyone else has seen the numbers in bklyn post whole foods opening... Nobody is expecting them to ever recover back to the levels they once were.... The trouble is they have a tendency to label bklyn as the "temporary" problem that doesn't seem to fade... That's one thing, but now, if you're talking about a 20-30pct loss on the ues, how in anyway can you expect earnings to be good... The Ceo has already told you they are going to be bad... The only reason to get in at these levels is on the chance of an lbo prior to earnings - otherwise, this will go back to three and possibly under... that's when you load up long term.
I think the answer to that was pretty clear in last Q's CC - that said, last q was by most metrics a "bad" q - yet the stock has surged b/c of some significant margin and shrink improvements under new leadership.
So I guess it's in how you define "bad" at this stage for this particular company.
Actually, from my perspective there is a reason. You are projecting and I am and have been for sometime concerned about the fragility of your ego. Projection is a psychological defense utilized to protect one's sense of self or ego, particularly at times when they perceive their ego is threatened.
I am not in competition with you but our timelines w respect to my interest in this stock started in the mid 7's - for about 9 months you were a frequent poster as to what you considered a falling knife that would not stop until bankruptcy = 0$
You are free to characterize the surge from 2.12 to these levels any way you like but the point is you were wrong and seemingly lacked the integrity to admit so than or now.
I always listened to your views, weighed them against my own, and kept accumulating sub 3 - so again, if you want to talk about winners, I'd be happy to show you where I stand, but, I am more interested in character - an area where you have let a bunch of us down.
Good luck turning that around. I hope you find happiness one day.
Char5es - been some time. Perhaps you should start off by aknowledging your mistaken view on price action - you may have regained credibility.
You have no concept off book what the appeal of this company is to suitors pre bankruptcy.
Furthermore, debt is often a profitable or positive attribute - remember the mortgage crisis?
According to speculation it would be an equity stake/position - at a discounted rate.. Though this would be my least preferable option, it would be fine.