Be prepared for Fairway to get aggressive with trying to opt out, renegotiate, or sublet leases downtown(tribec) and possibly even at existing locations - their only leverage will be their incredibly high volume retailer status which if management is on their game, could be utalized to their advantage. I imagine some if not most investors will frown upon this kind of strategic approach - I would welcome it.
I would welcome any attempts to expand margins with respect to leases - this is a major problem that can be solved - from what I know Tribecca is the only one for now though others may be in the stars - as for Glickberg - though he is invested in his real estate holdings he's also invested in Fairway for the long term for two major reasons.
1. They pay the rent.
2. He's a MAJOR holder of restricted stock, meaning he can't sell it in the near future.
If you think Howie can find another tenant to pay anywhere near what Fairway's paying in Brklyn and Harlem, you are mistaken... as for the upperwest side - not concerned about the stores that do over a 100m a year in revenue. UES, UWS.
Then Glicky is losing tenants. It's that simple. That's how business works Einstein. Fairway can walk. Look at their books. If they need a reduction trust me they will get it - it's all about their revenue in this market place.
Again, I wouldn't count on in it - Fairway needs to cut costs before they can expand further in Manhattan - They may have at one time firmly committed to this location, then less firmly given the impression they will open early next year - but I would expect them to continue to back away from this once firm commitment - Analysts will of course further revise/cut growth expectations but as a long term investor, I could care less - we are deep into value territory - bankruptcy fears are always relevant with any company like this, however, in my assesment, I don't see bankruptcy as likely for a number of reasons some to do with their brand/popularity/market - others such as an industry leading inventory turnover ratio which tells me at the end of the day they have leverage where it really counts.
I think people may be missing out the significance of Fairway's new leadership particularly with the complicated and self interested relationship t they've been bound to with respect to Sterling for nearly a decade.
This is a moment that is unpredictable but very possibly one where a new coherent direction is expressed - some may not like this direction but it will likely be in the best interest of the company's survival and ultimate ability to thrive.
Say what you will about scams - I believe management will take this opportunity to drasticly shift the tone and move forward by dealing with some of the real underlying problems.
That's absurd - what you are missing is basic logic and business practice - when a public or private business that has a stable track record of paying or prepaying lease payments, is on the verge of possibly going bankrupt, they can disclose to their landlord, in this case, a share holder the need for a reduction - to avoid going out of business - or having to go the unpleasant path of legal recourse that you think is so easily facilitated in the event of chapter 11.
I hear you - but the guy just came on - aside from the lame boston sports fan comments, I think he came off well and projected a quiet confidence that had been lacking prior - the 10q refers to exactly what I said we would be hearing - renegotiaion/reorganizing real estate commitments in order to secure cash flow... The strongest statement he made was regarding the bones of the company and how there were many unique facets of the business that distinguish Fairway as a thriving long term story - Do I have concerns that were not addressed? Yes. I am concerned about Whole Foods moving into the ues and Harlem in the next couple months... particularly b/c of how much they've made a point of saying how BKLyn's business has suffered due to wfm... Fact is, WFM may be trying to take fwm out here for good... I hope this guy gets creative...
Will probably buy more if it dips below 2 which I'm guessing it will...
No question that is the short thesis - and I'm not going to pretend that this is not a plausible possibility, but at this point the debt concerns me far less than their inability to stop increasingly bleeding money, particularly with growing/new competition from wfm on the ues and harlem.
That said, I think your analysis of the CEO's performance thus far is completely disingenuous... Essentially the guy just came on board and in my opinion has tried to reassure the long term thesis by signaling dramatic and serious steps must be taken in the short term - The fact that the stock has continued to fall since his arrival imo is not an accurate barometer of anything but the negative perception of the company.
Any expectation that his arrival would or could somehow suddenly, magically remove this perception is not based in reality.
Give the guy the opportunity to actually implement and execute before you put a target on his back or label him the problem.
In truth, he is at this point the only potential solution. Let's see what happens.
Over the last year.... After sitting in the 7's for months this stock began to fall than suddenly just tanked into free fall - Need to see gains held but not holding my breath just yet - despite new management's outlook.
Whatever the case, long and strong - and hopefully not wrong.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's not that complicated... This is priced as if it were going bnkrpt... The impression the street got was counter to that.... For now.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
12$$? Not even close - Been averaging down from 7's - and am currently just above 4$ - but I hope you're still short.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
One of my bigger concerns... However, UES was supposed to have opened by now or within a couple weeks, so if WFM is postponing till spring that's a good sign... Need to look into.
if you read the article you might attest that much of that pay is in the form of restricted stock - meaning stock that cannot be sold for a few years.
Why would you seek stock advice on a yahoo msg board? Why not look into things yourself? You'll feel better doing your own research rather than relying on someone you do not know. Unless you like panic selling.