In so far as the overall picture for the oil and gas picture goes...its bleak, since Obama signed that nuclear agreement with the Iranians which the Saudis don't like and will get even with the WHOLE world over, because as long as OPEC was calling the shots, well head prices were going up.
I agree, but that was then and now is now and there is nothing indicating a rise in unit prices or getting back on management's stated track of having the NG or BoE to ship down the pipelines, fractionate what is sent down the pipe at a fee based price or storing what hasn't been sent to you. These E&P companies may be locked into fee based contracts, but are they locked into sending everything they dig up down ENLKs pipes, or having it fractionated at ENLK's facilities, or stored in ENLK's storage facilities. XYZ E&P may drill just enough and ship just enough to meet the bare minimum to guarantee their fee based obligations, but what would keep them from storing the rest until the fee arrangement dies off and they find someone cheaper to do the job?
I think this is another question which should be asked on the conference call on the 17th.
Put in a Buy order that is good until cancelled for x units at $11 (or $10). If you don't hit you haven't lost anything.
I am surprised that after a distribution announcement the unit price is going down then up then down and so forth...this is crazy.
Just one other item, the projected growth rate in distributions put forth by management in the last of 2014, first of 2015 no longer seems to be a realistic goal with the current economics of the oil patch. Unless, in the next conference call some asks management exactly how they expect to keep to their time time table of growing the distribution. Maybe someone will ask ENLK management how they plan to get the train back on their projected track without it doing a KMI or one of the other MLP's that is really not doing well, i.e. RGP, etc.
See my note earlier on "Should ENLK Be Putting The Brakes On All These Acquisitions". This is the time to be sitting on your money rather than buying more pipelines in production areas where they are pretty well covered in pipe.
We have already seen management's long range goals of increasing distributions quarterly, this quarter, when I think many unit holder in ENLK felt like their was going to be a .005 increase in distributions from all of the rah-rah-rah from management on how great we were going to do this year. Management is not responsible for the OPEC price war, or the Congress and Executive branch refusal to export NG. If we could have exported NG, ENLINK would have been in a good position with its gulf coast assets to get NG aboard NG carriers destined for where ever.
Unfortunately, there is one other problem and that is the perception that export of NG to countries such as the Ukraine or any other former Warsaw Pact country instead of them buying from Lukoil would be tantamount to an act of economic war. I do think we could calm the PRC down with its island building agenda if we were able to sell excess NG to them.
I think with the current administration and do nothing Congress who has not confronted the President on his rule by executive action in areas which are reserved for the Congress to pass laws, we are going to be in one hell of a shape across our entire domestic spectrum for the next 12 months.
1) Enlink is making acquisitions at a time when they should be sitting on their available capital, which in my opinion is dragging the company down because we don't have a firm grip on exactly what Tall Oaks is going to contribute, just promises.
2) Devon is the senior in the MLP, and they are primarily an E&P company which as we know the E&P's are hurting and will continue to hurt until Congress okays the okay for the U.S. to export of NG to other countries that are not a threat to national security. All of the E&P's want this deal okay from Congress and for the Executive branch to butt out, particularly those Senators and Congressmen from states that are being worst hit by layoffs in the oil patch because E&P is grinding down.
2a) I would like to see if Devon gets to put their hands in the MLPs DCF and FCF to keep afloat during in these rough waters.
Now some have said that Enlink's storage, transportation, and fractionation numbers will remain high because of contractual obligations, which i don't follow to be honest, because, if an E&P loses money to produce NG and BOE, then what is to keep them contractually bound to pump anything.
If I am wrong looking down the road, I stand ready to listen and be corrected.
It isn't going to explode...it will end up cutting distributions by 75% by the end of the year if Barry Davis doesn't smarten up and go back to the tight fisted penny pinching ways of XTEX days.
I would not be overly optimistic to find my stock/MLP listed in a paper named "PennyStocksWeekly". It doesn't bode to well for the future out come of the upward movement in the price, and as we have seen fromthe announcement today, upper management burned through DCF and FCF to buy another MLP, which they could have held off on, because there is no end in sight in the oil patch for the downward spiral in prices.
I said earlier that when Congress lifted its ban on the overseas export of hydrocarbons, we will see another boom in the oil batch, but this damn president is content to fiddle while Rome burns in the last 12 months he is in office. And ENLK should take a stand on having all their business decisions made by Devon. Enlink had money, Devon had none. Now it seems that Devon wants to burn through Devon's good credit rating, their EBITDA, etc. BARRY you got to stand your ground and not become another Kinder Morgan.
OK. Could you run this by us, the great unwashed of highly technical areas that generally end up as footnotes in the quarterly reports, as to whether the nattering nabobs who have been saying that ENLK will not be able to maintain (nor grow) its distributions as projected for this year and beyond are full of it.
Anyway, I figure we will see come 29 Jan. when distributions are announced, it the LP managed to grow the distribution by .05 per unit.
" I remain confident in ENLC/ENLK to still be standing after this latest depression lifts and likely will be stronger than ever when the sun shines again."
Question is when are depressed upstream prices going to end? That is a question I don't think anyone can see or predict or project. We have a glut in Bboe, so midstreams can do well in storage/fractionating/transport. But, I don't buy into Barry Davis letting Devon's people continue to buy E&P properties right now. Devon should sit on their money, and take in what Enlink is paying them for their share of the combined companies. Otherwise...Hello, Kinder Morgan number 2 only in different areas of the oil game.
Until there is some stability in the oil and gas market, I think Barry Davis and Company should put the brakes on further acquisitions or Enlink (in my mind) may end up going down like Kinder Morgan, and our distributions and dividends could get deeply cut. Your opinions appreciated.