The theory... based on past patterns is ...The number of days...9-10 days 3.20 to 2.95 area coming down... and the saucer is 60 days washing out in the 2.35-40 area drifting back up forming the “saucer” and now 6 days eating through the other side of the formation 2.95 3.20 ...so the longer it takes (10 days or more) to form the right “handle” and break out... the more sustained, but less dynamic the move..it will drift back up steadily instead of shooting back up with momentum type volume....breaking and keeping the stock blow $3.11 will change the trend, encourage small size selling and the “right side handle” pattern is delayed or gone... That is what the professional shorts want and seem to be trying to achieve.. we still are in a short-term, very strong consolidation pattern.... JMHO...Drummer
1. Firstly it is just a short-term ( 7 day ) up-trend line which was forming a very strong consolidation pattern for a much larger move. 3.11 was the base line.
2. Secondly, if you go out six month chart, then we are in the process of forming a "handle" and a few cents makes little difference.....but either way, you can see the battle of the traders is going on. For long term holders, it makes little difference except how soon or how far out we will finally get our reward. JMHO
For short term up-trend $ 3.11 area is still key and there is an effort this morning to break it down. If successful, then we lose the short-term uptrend which could mean either... not many pro traders believe anything is going to happen on the announcement of any significance... or they do believe something is coming and want to suppress the stock a little to increase negative liquidity so they can cover some short-term short positions. Those guys have so much ability to influence the daily trading in low-priced stocks you wonder why they ever lose ..which surprising, happens fairly often....JMHO.... Good luck to you all.... Drummer.
That is pretty good manipulation of numbers. Those profs take out 9/11 (over 3000 direct deaths and 2000 indirect) and then tell me my odds of being killed by Muslim terrorists is less than right-wing extremists. I am open to contrary opinions but not manipulated information (propaganda).... Drummer
You have a point but I think it is a question of semantics. There are numerous algorisms set to trade pennies and (as opposed to “Flash Trading”) will move in and out of 10k + trades throughout the day in low-priced low-volume stocks and I included them in the Day-Trading category because that is what they are doing... albeit, a lot faster and more often than an individual who usually get 2-3 trades a day in a stock like this. We have both types trading GERN daily and in varying degrees. The individual sitting in his pyjamas at his computer trying to day-trade in and out for a few cents in this type of stock it beating a dead hoarse. He usually ends up “swing-trading” if he has any money left. The balancing factor for the computer is that a contrarian algorism is betting the other side and thus giving each computer the liquidity to get in and liquidity to get out and close the trades by the end of the day. It will also try to break that $ 3.11 to make its trades on the short side.... Thanks for the comment. It was thoughtful and on point.... Drummer
$ 3.11 is the short-term ( 5 day ) upward trend-line and so far, the day-traders are putting orders at, or just above or just below it. For the long-term holders, we need them to be successful because we have been (5 days) building up a very strong consolidation which can support a major move ( 50 - 75% ) and that slight upward trend give us a decent price as a base for any significant fundamental event. As it stands, any announcement into these current ranges will just be lost in this penny trading and we need to re-establish ourselves at the $ 5-plus level and stay there. This brings a new level of traders and investors into GERN....JMHO... Good Luck To You All..... Drummer
on the close 907 stocks up and 2132 down and the balance of the NYSE unchanged. S&P 500 has rolled over and taking us all down with it. GERN at major short-term support of $ 3.05. the top of the 3 month downtrend line it broke through to the upside Monday....If S&P moves up tomorrow, we should move up with it. IBB ok but will go with S&P tomorrow.... JMHO.... good luck to you all... Drummer
1. Monday, 4 April 2016, GERN had above average recent volume, predominately on the buy-side and the buying started in the pre-market (prior to 9:30 a.m. ET).
2, The press release from GERN was timed ,pre-market, today Tuesday, 5 April 2016, 4:30 a.m. ET.
3. Monday's Buying appeared to be primarily short-covering but there was obviously some hot money come into the market the way there was periodic buying of small and medium offers of a few hundred to a few thousand shares and that looked like “Market” orders to me.
So now we know:
1. The communications chain at GERN is very “leaky” and knowledge of the issuing of a press release was in the hands of many outsiders at least 24 hours before the official release. (Though the press release was more eye-wash then earth-shattering substance, some shorts wouldn’t take a chance and hot-money traders just go with the volume and daily trend.)
2. We have an audience...not a huge one...but we do have one and that will be an asset if and when we have a press-release that includes a major fundamental event for the company.
We gained two things...we all knew, but have now verified....when we see a jump in “normal volume” we have a better than even chance that a press release is due shortly. We also verified we have a reasonable number of traders who keep GERN on their main monitors so they can pounce when appropriate. I have been in this stock 6 years and I was beginning to wonder if anyone else followed GERN but those of us stuck with it and those professionally short the stock.... Good luck to you all and keep an eye on the S&P 500 which can put a damper on this move... Drummer
I think so. That price is the top of the second point in forming the downtrend line...the high of 7 March
Well, I’m looking for a move to the $3.40 area because:... we have come out of that “cup” or “saucer” formation I mentioned a week or so ago. Today we kicked off stops at $ 3.27 ( the 22 Jan high and the top of a downtrend line we gaped through this morning ( $ 3.04 then pulled back to that price momentarily ) Volume is very good – comparatively - for this stock and I expect some churning in this area because the percentage move in 30 days ( 50 % ) is a good trade for the finger traders – or any other short term trader. When the churning ends and some consolidation forms I am looking for a move up to the heavy over-hang in the $ 3.45 to $ 3.65 range where all four long term moving averages sit ( 100 = 3.56... 150 = 3.47... 200 = 3.57 and 300 = $3.62 ) That is a heavy area but nothing in between here and there. The general market and the IBB will influence the buying/selling from here to there. We need more positive press like we have been getting the last few days to cause the weaker shorts to cover and new money to come into the stock. We are overdue for an announcement out of GERN and odds are we are very close to one and traders are coming into the stock in anticipation. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 which is very “toppy” and looks like it wants to roll over. That will be a drag on us unless we have a significant fundamental event in GERN. An acquisition will give us a bump but the quality of that acquisition and its long term potential will be the key to the magnitude of our market price move.
Can you give me your source for info...? GERN web site “EVENTS” has the following:
Upcoming Investor Events
To be announced.
Scientific and Medical Conferences
There are currently no events scheduled.
Thank you for your reply in advance.....and Good Luck To You... Drummer
I’m sure most of you have asked yourself at one time or another why we have so many negative posters who dally spend hours bashing GERN and any posters who post a positive message. They have been particularly active the last few weeks. You would think if an investor loathed a stock so much they would just move on and invest and post somewhere else. Run a one-minute one-day chart of the IBB and GERN and you will see they are almost in lock-step. That indicates to me, program-trading that includes a number of micro-cap biotechs like GERN. This being the end of the quarter and the hedgees are balancing their positions, they need paper to cover their shorts without driving the stock up too steeply. With a low priced, very low volume stock like GERN, the trees have to be shaken as much as possible to draw out sellers. The managers will try to find a long-fund who wants out to block fill as much as they can but in between the little seller helps set the trend and allows a MM to accumulate paper to fill a per-determined order. Just one more component of the situation we are in. However, a picture is worth a thousand words and a 6 month daily chart of GERN will quickly show you it is bottoming out, forming a “cup” and if we have any luck and this continues a little longer, the shorts will have no choice but to go in, cover and move on or wait till the major move tops and they will try again. They see the same chart patterns and Moving Averages I see.... JMHO... Good luck to you all.... Drummer
I am in the same situation as yourself and agree with you completely. Good luck to you.... Drummer
$ 2.86 is the current 50 day Simple Moving Average and the more we trade around and above that price the greater the strength of the accumulation patter that has been forming for the last 7 weeks. We need a very positive “fundamental” event to happen in order for the pps to move up and clear the heavy overhang in $ 3.40 to $ 3.60 resistance level which is an intersection "all" the primary long-term moving averages which are currently moving side-ways but not trending down any longer. All the short-term moving averages used by the “Finger” traders and “Day-traders” are trending slightly up. A caution note is that the general market is “toppy” and the S&P still looks like it is rolling over...... Good luck to you all... Drummer
Sorry... I missed your first request. No..the volume does not confirm the other indicators. The reason is that the average daily volume is a misrepresentation of the real volume. The odd high volume day caused by a single large block gets averaged out and into the daily. GERN has very little street interest and is a very low volume stock when you adjust for those odd days.
Where did you get the idea that there was a $2.00 move expected in March? Intermediate is defined as 3-6 months and long-term is over 9 months. Take a technical course and then comment. The stock is subject to the general market like any other stock and will be influenced over the months by the S&P... but more important, GERN has to have a fundamental event to move the stock up in value. Technicals are a reflection of anticipated or current fundamentals.