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EV Energy Partners LP Message Board

distressed_debt_trader 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 17, 2016 6:27 PM Member since: Feb 24, 2006
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  • Reply to

    GSAT most likely partner

    by southernherd Jan 16, 2016 12:56 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 17, 2016 6:27 PM Flag

    You can either own it here or sell it. Stocks trade to extremes we are at an extreme. Can it go lower sure. Can it go much higher on approval sure. End of day jay will do good by shareholders as he owns 70 percent of the shares. End of day spectrum has value and I very comfortable taking the other side of the short trade. I am also very comfortable that tlps will be approved.

    I have taken and willing to take mark to market pain. Will the stock go up 100 percent on approval - not sure. It's just a rule of thumb. I am willing to hold till 2017 to see jay realize value.

    On approval jay needs to reverse split this stock and reduce the retail chatter and build a new institutional base away from hedge funds. He will do it.

    Till then if you can ignore looking at the screens - do so.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GSAT most likely partner

    by southernherd Jan 16, 2016 12:56 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 16, 2016 8:24 PM Flag

    My valuation just assumes a 100% jump on approval - $1.05 gets to $2.10. Its just a rule of thumb. GSAT is trading at twice the beta of IWM/Russell 2000 index.

    I have no particular idea where GSAT trades if the market keeps melting. But at $1.05 it is stupid cheap and I really don't care if 65 mil. or 100 mil. shares are short.

    In 1H 2016 TLPS will be approved. I don't think there is any more testing and the last exparte by GSAT was great data point for people following the process close.

    I rather focus on valuation and what GSAT does with TLPS as the FCC process is entering its last stage and there is till to analyze anymore.

    I think GSAT is worth between $6-$8. I don't think we get there day after approval. But I think shortly after approval you will see Jay under take a serious effort to monetize TLPS and rebuild GSAT shareholder base.

    Its just a pain trade till market settle down and FCC approval.

    Jay was not buying at $2 for charity - he views the assets worth substantially more than $2. In 9-12 months we will be looking back at this time frame and saying how did GSAT trade at a $1.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 16, 2016 7:33 AM Flag

    Farrar is much worse the Sahm or any of the shorts. He is corrupt and a liar. He has been hustling and shaking down companies in MSS business with paid research and a "one man lobbying shop" for years. If GSAT paid him he would be pumping TLPS.

    He just makes up stuff. Read his analysis on aws3 auction - its on his blog. He was totally wrong. He is totally wrong on TLPS but he will just make up stuff.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GSAT files new Ex-Parte

    by biomtrader Jan 15, 2016 12:45 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 15, 2016 10:15 PM Flag

    Gerst is now a useful idiot. I want him to go meet with all the commissioners staff and regale them with his power point slide. He carries zero credibility in the FCC. They have to meet him as part of their public mandate. The fact that microsoft, google, wifi alliance,bluetooth sig have not shown any technical analysis but gerst is running around with first channel 11 interference, then filter on iphone 6, then bluetooth shows the opposition is a bunch of lawyers and a short seller versus Roberson head of TAC. Morgan Lewis did not mention him by name - they listed his various expartes - all which point to Gerst and then they said he is viewed with Skepticism at FCC.

    Don't much care about the shorts. This price action is driven by de-risking, hedge fund liquidity, melt down in Russell 2000 not shorts - they are along for the ride and its been going in their favor for now.

    Approval should ease a lot of stock sales pressure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GSAT files new Ex-Parte

    by biomtrader Jan 15, 2016 12:45 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 15, 2016 9:35 PM Flag

    Fast pace since smitty took over - this is definitely not a die on the vine situation.

    There are meeting by all TLPS parties including non commercial parties like Gerst are getting meeting with commissioner staff. TLPS will get approved in the near term.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GSAT files new Ex-Parte

    by biomtrader Jan 15, 2016 12:45 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 15, 2016 9:12 PM Flag

    Very well thought out analysis.

    My view is this is one of the more important process expartes filed by the company. It shows a long process coming to an end at the bureau level. I am pretty sure the OET IB and WB are very comfortable will all technical aspects of TLPS and are looking for guidance from 8th floor to proceed. I think testing risk is greatly reduced.

    Regardless of the price action the FCC process is moving along in the right direction and at a fast pace.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Question for DDT and Mags .............

    by crossfacecradle Jan 12, 2016 11:18 AM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 12, 2016 11:59 AM Flag

    The current price is largely driven by technicals, macro and liquidity.

    Selling in December was hf redemption and liquidity. It's was indiscriminate by but when smart guys have redemption they still have to sell.

    In 2016 it's more marker driven. Russell down 8 percent. Now selling is retail, quants and some shorts. The stock has gone into day trader land and will be till fcc decision comes out.

    Where are the longs - hf are de-risking. Some new guys have stepped in. But no one is in a rush to buy. Stock at 1.17 - day it is approved it could double to 2.34 - only .16 higher than November price. Can buy then with a much better risk return profile than november. Hf buying now don't need to buy a full position.

    For new institutional buyers you need fcc approval. To really get up to speed on FCC process a new funds needs to investment a lot of time - the overall tape is terrible for guys to buy a new name. Also sell side coverage is weak. Need better sell side coverage. No sell side analyst will initiated before fcc approval.

    All this will change on approval.

    Shorts are much more dispersed - fundamental, quant, momentum, retail - all over. Some are pressing a trade and some are very short term and will flip on price change.

    Steve and I will be around in 6-12 months and I expect gsat to be around 3-4 on approval headed to 6-8 on sale. I will be at the shareholder meeting - I expect approval by then. All the shorts on this board will be to gone.

    Now buying gsat is just dependent on one's ability to hold and take pain. All changes on approval.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader by distressed_debt_trader Jan 12, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    Our Key Takeaways :
    I. Conviction in Approval:
    a. Despite the continued slide in price, which Jay addressed at the outset, the Company remains confident in approval.
    b. See significant momentum past 6-8 weeks.
    c. We hadn’t heard from Barbee in a while, think his conviction and perspective is key given:
    i. He was at the DC School for Girls visit on 12/3 accompanying FCC officials and staff.
    ii. He has been the point man with Harold Feld of Public Knowledge.
    d. While the order is not in front of the full Commission, it’s obviously being worked on in the Chairman’s office.
    i. Our independent checks with Edward ‘Smitty’ Smith, the Chairman’s legal advisor, who attended DC school visit – confirms.
    e. Jay definitely thinks the shares are cheap here. Sounds like he would buy more outside black out period.
    II. Outdoor and / or further testing:
    a. There have been no FCC requests for additional technical data or testing since March.
    i. Opposition while emboldened by Goog/MSFT has failed to provide data to support their objections.
    b. By far the topic clients wanted to hear the most about, we went at it from a half dozen angles, yet:
    i. The Company was adamant they did not think testing would be required.
    1. The FCC has close to 30 years of history with Wi-Fi. OET knows what they’re dealing with.
    ii. Even if it were to happen, it wouldn’t make any difference:
    1. Testing outdoors would probably yield the inverse effect opposition is hoping for.
    a. Theoretically there would be increased congestion on ch 1,6,11.
    b. Turning on an additional channel would relieve congestion, like indoor testing has proven.
    i. Jay alluded to as much when referring to recent news about NYC Wifi.
    iii. The Company likely has such data from the experimental tests in San Carlos and other areas.
    c. Despite testing and data to date, Company assumes opposition will continue to pursue strategy of ‘more testing’.
    i. The FCC is well versed in competitive interests, which is why Public Knowledge as a neutral party is significant
    d. Regarding Bluetooth- Barbee indicated the DC School operated BT devices and none experienced reported interference.
    i. The 12/15/15 ex parte reiterates requests by GSAT for data backing BT SIG claims on interference, which footnote 4 says have not been provided to date. We think the BT/SIG claims along with the other technical claims have been largely refuted.
    III. Public Knowledge
    a. Company clearly respects what they are doing, and sees them as one of the only neutral parties without competitive stake.
    i. PK represents the public interest and public policy.
    b. Company will succinctly address ‘framework’ and ‘additional testing’ from the new PK Ex Parte in the coming days.
    i. We assume Company response will address ‘Framework’ points 1-4 (controlled deployment, NOS, interference).
    ii. And in doing so nullify the need for more testing.
    c. We see PK trying to memorialize precedent policy issues beyond GSAT:
    i. “PK continues to see this as an important policy change the Commission should adopt to facilitate the entry of new wireless technologies.” With respect to tradeoff between mitigation measures and further testing.
    ii. “Applicants for new services cannot remain in “testing Hell,” or be forced to negotiate against themselves – a process which gives incumbents an effective veto over any new technology”.
    1. We interpret that as the burden should not be an innovators dilemma, a corollary to the endless opposition calls for testing.
    2. Clearly could apply to other proceedings like LTE-U, which PK is vocal in as well.
    d. We think there is a path PK has laid out for both GSAT and the FCC to approve TLPS.
    i. That encourages further innovation and good public policy.
    IV. Timing
    a. We think approval could be a 1Q event given momentum and evidence Chairman’s office is working on GSAT.
    b. Company said no reason the FCC could not proceed to an order at this point.
    i. Think it could go to Open Meeting, despite data in 2015 that suggests otherwise (1 out of 37 items Co specific)
    ii. Feb Open Mtg scheduled 2/18, implies tentative agenda should post 1/28 (which is Jan Open Mtg)
    c. While process has taken longer than expected do not see any remaining hurdles at this point.
    i. We asked several times what could happen to further delay the order; don’t see anything at this point.
    d. Walked thru unexpected events (tech, policy, short sellers) that have lead to delays and their responses:
    i. Tech- deployments, tests at the FCC, and engineering data lead by highest civilian authority to FCC.
    1. the stock rallied past Tech overhang post demo and pre-policy challenge.
    ii. Policy- response to Goog was NOS initiative, which should mitigate concerns and positive for public policy.
    iii. Short Sellers- Company responded to attack of Oct’14 with real world data.
    1. The launch of Wi-fi first initiatives by carriers, cable, and tech cos dispel all notions TLPS would be worth nothing.
    e. Earnings call penciled in for mid-March.
    V. Post- Approval
    a. Jay remains confident in interest and being able to monetize post approval.
    i. Won’t make a deal based on the share price post approval.
    b. Same matrix mentioned in previous calls (Carriers, Cable, Tech); Jay singled out Tower Cos on the call.
    c. Barbee gave an update on international outreach, clearly a big driver for value post approval.
    d. Wi-fi first initiatives in the headlines every week, rumored launch of Comcast service coming soon.
    i. We think there will be more Wi-fi based services to come from tech sector.
    1. Apple denied rumors in August they were working on a Wi-fi MVNO service.
    a. We think despite denials evidence (programmable SIM/financing) suggests further leverage in wireless landscape.

  • Reply to

    Odeon call w/ gsat managemet

    by distressed_debt_trader Jan 11, 2016 5:51 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 11, 2016 7:53 PM Flag

    I have no clue how this stock trades. I was going to buy it at $.35 in 2013 and the block purchase to fell thru. A close friend of mine bought it then and along with jay converted into stock. He is a very large holder to this day. I bought some at $1.50 and sold at $4 in summer 2014 cause I was really mad to see it go up 2.5 times and I did not own enough and I wish the $.35 block (it was old converts) was mine.

    Then came Sahm and I bought around $2. Did not sell much when it went to $3 but I sold calls - lots of them. I bought a lot at $1.50-$1.65 in the summer.

    At $2.18 end of November I expected it to go to $2.75-$3.0 on the news that has come out. Instead it went to $1.16 - this is what happens in a forced liquidity sell off.

    I plan to hold as my price target is still $6-$8. I will buy some more. I have no idea where it trades in short term. I would not sell calls. It will not get de-listed.

    I plan to go to GSAT shareholder meeting and tell Jay he should not have all the retail investors and split the reverse split the stock 200 to 1. Make the stock a $1000 stock :-)

    My gut is we are pretty close to wrapping the FCC process. I can take more testing if FCC needs it - result will be positive. I think the next stage is selling or monetizing TLPS and that will be more fun to analyze and handicap. I expect to make 2-3X on GSAT. But I have no idea how low the stock and go.

    Large HF sellers are done. Now its day trader retail and short stock. That what moves the price till approval. I don't day trade so I have no much views on daily trading. Long term I am pretty happy with GSAT potential and I have the ability to have take mark to market pain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Odeon call w/ gsat managemet

    by distressed_debt_trader Jan 11, 2016 5:51 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 11, 2016 7:12 PM Flag

    I know of a few funds that have been created to specifically purchase GSAT. They purchased GSAT after the short Sahm attack. They are under water today on a mark to market basis but talking to them they are still confident in GSAT and TLPS. These are smart guys and their view which is the same as mine is that nothing negative on a fundamental spectrum value and FCC process has taken place in last 6 months. Just forced liquidity selling. They will take pain and wait it out as I plan to do. Anyone buying today and holding thru some painful price action will be rewarded.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader by distressed_debt_trader Jan 11, 2016 5:51 PM Flag

    Good call with jay, Barbee and Tim

    Main points

    Gsat is at the chairman's office. Smitty is coordinating with bureaus. Finally rule and order will be send to all commissioners when finalized.

    Fcc has asked for no technical data since March demos - fcc was supporting of Chicago and dc demos.

    Gsat will file an exparte to answer questions raised on NOS by Feld. Very positive on their continuous conversations with feld.

    Either open committee or circulation for approval

    Good relationship with ib and oet. Bureaus are supportive of tlps.

    Bransford of Morgan Lewis put out a note

    Tlps has gained momentum - 1q 2016 approval possible
    Mentioned feld meeting prior to feld exparte
    Mentioned fcc does not think much of gerst
    Overall positive

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 6, 2016 9:02 AM Flag

    Beeger7: You want me to give you definitive news on when the FCC approves and votes on a Rule and Order for TLPS before the FCC releases it ?

    Investing in GSAT is investing in a regulatory approval process. The MSS business is irrelevant in valuation purposes.

    One can follow and make informed judgement on FCC process via expartes, historical fcc proceedings, DC lawyers and consultants and talking to all parties in the proceeding. End of day it is making a decision on partial information as is most investing, Here one is making a decision on a FCC regulatory proceeding.

    Only thing tangible is the stock price - down 40% in last month, 50% over last 12 months, and 70% from its all time highs - $4.53.

    If you think TLPS is approved and is worth $$ then buy - if one thinks otherwise short.

    64 mil. shares are short and 360 mil. shares are long outside of Jay - that is a tangible fact. Jay owns 840 mil. shares and bought 2.5 mil in open market last month - a tangible fact.

    If you want real definitive news on TLPS being approved or not - wait for FCC andthe company to put out a definitive legal document. If you want to buy stock or short stock today or close your long short position you will have to guess on the status of TLPS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 6, 2016 12:12 AM Flag

    Cause one always looks at the downside. The downside in GSAT has gone from a TLPS rejection based on technical interference or public policy to at worst an extension to run an irrelevant test.

    A what if scenario lets one figure out where the market is pricing an implied probability of testing versus were one expects it. Market currently saying 80%-90% probability of a test. I think it is much much less than that. Therefore, GSAT here is a strong buy. WIll most likely be a multi-bagger from here this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    To Pcstel.....

    by valeros985 Jan 5, 2016 5:10 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 6, 2016 12:03 AM Flag

    Use the ignore feature. There are too many irrelevant retail shorts and other trolls with nothing better to do than waste other peoples time. Start putting irrelevant posters on ignore. Focus on TLPS - MSS business for all valuation purposes is irrelevant.

    Follow the docket and relevant poster like Maglan - there is good info on the board if you ignore the trolls.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 5, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    Then a very interesting political issue is raised.

    After Smitty and rosenworcel staff meet with all parties. If the fcc asks for additional testing does it set a very poor precedent on the role of oet, wb and ib in fcc.

    Any additional testing will yield same results - spectrum physics does not change. Why we have seen no technical data from google, microsoft, wifi alliance ect.

    All more testing does in delay and provide political cover to fcc commissioners for approving tlps.

    I don't think oet wants to do any more testing. 8 months they have requested no technical data. They have been provided Chicago and dc demo data. Oet has put out a 115 page report.

    For 8th floor to push a political demo on oet now will set a bad precedent and make Julie Knapp / oet technical judgement a political tool to satisfy msft, goog and wifi alliance when they have failed to provide any technical evidence to support their opposition.

    I don't expect there to be more testing - its my downside scenario so it is possible but I don't expect it.

    I think we are close to approval. Smitty would not hold meetings with all interested tlps parties unless he had the technical sign off from oet. Hopefully tlps gets done in 1q 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 5, 2016 1:34 PM Flag

    Very interesting observation.

    Oet has asked for no technical data since the demo at the fcc.

    8th floor does not decide technical issues. The commissioners and staff rely on their bureaus to inform and advice them on technical issues.

    Julie Knapp has communicated to the 8th floor oet views on tlps. Smitty would not hold meeting without knowing the fcc hose technical view on tlps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader by distressed_debt_trader Jan 1, 2016 6:56 PM Flag

    From Odeon "The Company said the FCC has not requested anything additional, and these tests are for continued internal testing."

    My Views

    We have seen shorts imply that this came same day at Blair Levin call with Wheeler's office. So it related. Again we will have a lot of short negative spin - mainly lies.

    If there is any FCC request for additional testing - Julie Knapp and OET will be involved in it. GSAT will not additional test with OET involvement - FCC will need to set parameters and be involved in any testing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 1, 2016 6:38 PM Flag

    I will not answer any question on my posts. Too many short and uninformed posters. If I want to add additional comments I will start a new topic. I have a boatload on ignore and I recommend other people do the same. Life is too short to deal with trollers.

  • distressed_debt_trader by distressed_debt_trader Jan 1, 2016 4:06 PM Flag

    Gsat sucker in December but it was largely due to technical selling from credit and distressed hedge funds.

    In January we will find out from the 8th floor what the next steps is approval or some more technical test.

    I have said earlier that technical test are basically political over. I think it's better than even odds they don't ask for any additional technical testing.

    I do think fcc has asked the legitimate opposition msft goog wifi alliance bluetooth sig for technical data - doubt we see any - their technical guys probably told the dc lawyers what the technical data will show - same as gsat results - spectrum physics does not change.

    If there is any additional testing it could be outdoor (3 months time frame) or bluetooth specific (1 month time frame) - any new demo test will validate previous demos. Demos testing is just a delay tactic.

    2 week Jan on docket should be interesting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another Round of Testing

    by oncfari Dec 31, 2015 5:51 PM
    distressed_debt_trader distressed_debt_trader Jan 1, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    Shorts have no edge in the process. Gsat has no special insight either, neither google or microsft. Right now it's a 8th floor fcc process. It did not get there without technical input from oet, wb and ib.

    Nothing in last 12 months or 36 months or next 36 months or years will change spectrum physics. New testing or demos generates the same data as does outdoor testing.

    Why does microsft not present technical data ?

    All this is about is timing delays and fatigue in equity holders.

    We will find out in jab the fcc next steps.

EVEP
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