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Mercury General Corporation Message Board

dividendbill 432 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: May 26, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Typical commodity cycle

    by reading_tee_leaves Sep 10, 2014 1:10 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Sep 11, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    Saying that 100 or More shares does not make any difference is incorrect because you see it is the individual stockholders choice and financial status that may govern his or her investment. In at 34 is reverent because it is essentially a massive gain for anyone regardless of their amount of shares owned. Buying stocks because it is racing to the top is a typical emotional investing technique. While with the new sand companies coming on line, there will be more time to invest EMES came out at a much lower price as well. Just because it is a sand company will not make it SCCESSFUL! The current sand companies have Solid contracts, and there may be more wells capped from future drilling if the amount of oil price continues to fall. Should the US start releasing all the oil products for export the price may rise. Those of us who have made a bunch of money on EMES are satisfied and will invest accordingly but will not blindly invest in every company that comes along because it looks promising , at least for me I can wait and make my investment decisions solely based upon how it looks going forward. Those who are "greedy" at some point will be crushed, maybe not on theses stocks but immediate success will cause them to think they are unbeatable, maybe they are but my race is not against them and I wish them well, as you see I am the only one in this contest that counts.

    Good luck to all, as all of us regardless of opinion want to be successful.

  • Reply to

    Listen folks I do not watch Cramer!

    by dividendbill Sep 23, 2014 5:08 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Sep 24, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    My response was directed strictly to those who for whatever reason blame Cramer for their woes. You can see it among several posters such as "kiss of death or why did he bring it up."
    I like you base my investment decisions on what I KNOW, and what my goals are. While there are influencing factors as I had discussed, I do not consider Cramer to be such a factor. I do stay in tune with the news that affect many of my investment decisions.
    My comments about the $35 oil are based on this information, although they call it $40 oil
    According to the Iraq Energy Institute, an independent, nonprofit policy organization focused on Iraq’s energy sector, the army of radical Islamists controls production of 30,000 barrels of oil a day in Iraq and 50,000 barrels in Syria.
    By selling the oil on the black market at a discounted price of $40 per barrel (compared to about $93 per barrel in the free market), ISIS takes in $3.2 million a day.
    James Phillips, veteran expert in Middle Eastern affairs at The Heritage Foundation, told The Daily Signal that the revenue gives ISIS a “solid economic base that sustains its continued expansion.”
    To be successful in counterterrorism efforts, Phillips said, the U.S. and its allies must “push the Islamic State out of the oil fields it has captured and disrupt its ability to smuggle the oil to foreign markets.”
    Here’s how Phillips said the ISIS oil operation works:
    ISIS sells oil to consumers in territory it controls, roughly the size of Maryland, inside Syria and Iraq. The terrorist group also sells oil to a network of smugglers that developed in the 1990s during Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s rule; that network smuggled oil out of Iraq into Turkey to avoid sanctions imposed by the United Nations.

    This is only one source, there are many that say basically the same thing.

  • Reply to

    Listen folks I do not watch Cramer!

    by dividendbill Sep 23, 2014 5:08 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Sep 24, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    That is what is so great about investing is that everyone can have an opinion. Wasn't it Cramer that someone said he actually promoted EMES as a must have stock, and while the stock at least for me is up 150% I do not let the fall back affect my investment decisions. I can tell you that when the stock was 120% of my purchase price I sold about half of it and that was to make sure in my own mind that I actually had no money invested.
    Today all the money I have made at least on paper is pure profit. I was not influenced by anyone, but based upon my own thoughts on what I felt was correct There are several periodicals that have more weight than Cramer does. Many use him as their financial adviser and when he says sell they ask HOW MUCH. I find out that my paid for adviser does not tell me what to do, but we discuss several things and investments. While I am sure that many have investments in MLPs that exceed mine ( I have 18, all BTW are in Green territory even after the slide the last couple weeks) But you see it is not about me and my investments, it is about taking the time to at least for me to invest for the long term. I am doing OK ! and that is really what it is all about. If a stock goes down it is not Cramers fault! It is MY FAULT, and will always be my fault regardless of which way the market goes. NO EXCUSES

  • Reply to

    Dividend amount/units

    by debbie08730 Aug 22, 2014 4:12 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Aug 23, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    Since you have twice as many shares the dividend can also be split so that everything will be equal.
    It is also possible that the .72 dividend per unit will remain at .72 but in most cases the dividend will be .36 a unit. This is because everything is considered to be equal at the time of the split. In some cases the dividend in splits has remained the same but that is no guarantee.
    We will find out at the next Q review. In any case you should be no worse off than you were before the split.

  • dividendbill by dividendbill Jul 28, 2014 6:59 PM Flag

    This is not a one day event. If you are looking for immediate success you are investing in the wrong stock. I am up 163% since last Nov. No worries!

    Have a great day.

  • Reply to

    EMES, rum, sun and scantily clad babes

    by wallstpirate Aug 26, 2014 12:52 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Aug 28, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Sorry you feel that way, but it is your choice. I suppose there is some satisfaction in calling another a name. Guess it makes you feel all good inside, and that's OK with me. Responding to any of my postings like I said is your choice.
    I hope you are able to invest successfully in your own way. I look forward to no more correspondence with you especially since you disagree with my position and feel that you want to argue my position as opposed to discussing them.

    Have a Great Day!

  • What he says does not cause the markets to go up or down period. If you look at the sand contracts they are full speed ahead, but the price of oil will cause energy stocks to go down and that includes EMES and all related energy stocks. The pipelines are still pushing oil, natural gas and whatever else is coming down the line.
    The main reason for oil to fall is because the renegade Islamic state is selling their oil at $30 a barrel, and the Current Administration is failing to put their oil business out OF BUSINESS. They could do it with a few bombs.
    The oil is still in the ground and will be there when it is all over, but you see here in the US with GAS $3.00 or less it HELPS THE CURRENT POLITICAL PARTY. Now if you believe that Cramer caused the oil stocks to slide, you are probably afraid of breaking a mirror, Friday the 13th and black cats. Did you know black cats are considered good luck in Japan
    Just look at the amount of oil that will be needed by 2025 as projected, and it gets more and more as we get older. Now you DIE, and we all will, you daughters and sons will thank you.

    The price of oil will not influence who I vote for, AND I VOTE!

  • Reply to

    Listen folks I do not watch Cramer!

    by dividendbill Sep 23, 2014 5:08 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Sep 24, 2014 7:17 AM Flag

    When the price goes up do you blame Cramer? When the price goes down everyone blames Cramer so which is it. His position does not change but runs down the road like every other analyst, so what is the difference?
    The difference is that many get their analyst views from a broadcast entertainer who has a sounding board to voice his opinion. There is nothing wrong with that but to believe that HE and HE ALONE has a marginal effect on the price of any stock is only your belief. While you do not care for my "distorted political reviews," I like you should be able to make up my own mind about the state of the economy and the reasons for it. One cannot deny that the price of $3 or less does not have an effect on one's vote, because people vote their pocketbook. What I brought up is just one of many things that has caused the price of energy stocks to fall. All the way to a strong dollar to the use of less energy because of more efficient autos, and the world at war. But Cramer! NO, My choice of the $30 dollar barrel for oil was a view shared on a NEWS reported program and the people who use it can sell it at $30 a barrel and make a ton of money because they paid $0. People will say they do not buy from terrorists, but the markets are there like it or not. There is no International law that says they cannot sell it, They get an estimated $30M+ per day off of the oil, someone is buying it, and of course there is the speculators. I will sit out here and hold onto my 2000+ stares of EMES that I bought at $45, because I believe in the company, but I will understand that the markets dictate the price of the oil and not Cramer. I am in the markets because I make money and understand how they work, and I do not work the option avenue and am not a day trader. I am not he expert that you seem to claim to be and I like you should have the right to voice my opinion just like you, even if you do not agree.
    I wish you well.

  • dividendbill dividendbill Sep 24, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    Like everything else or most everything else the answer can be found on the internet. One should never use it as gospel, but when there are several sites that talk about it. there is a reasonable probability of some truth.

    What guarantees the minimum price of oil (and gas)? Surprisingly it's not production costs. Indeed.

    Obviously, drilling for oil is pricey. Expensive labor, swelling cost of inputs like diesel fuel, chemicals and steel have all, in various degrees, increased the cost of exploration and production. The supplies from unconventional sources are also expensive. Furthermore, with stringent environmental norms in place, oil companies are forced to shell out more to keep their licenses. According to a research report published last year by Bernstein Research the cost of production in the most expensive (marginal cost of supply) new field has shot up to $92 per barrel, quickly nearing $ 100 per barrel-excusing OPEC and former Soviet Union. In simple economic terms, higher oil prices lure the companies to spend humongous resources on exploration and drilling. If the prices fall below a certain range, it becomes unviable for oil companies to spend energy on future explorations.
    Indeed, like bees complaining of honey, oil and gas companies shout of the need to have oil prices between $80 - $85 a barrel for sustained exploration and development. Of course, it's the higher oil prices, as the popular justification goes, that permit oil companies to explore oil sands and shale and recover the higher production cost. And, we are talking about billions of dollars as investment, as profit. Counter intuitive? Well, what about the existing wells? Got you! Don't existing wells produce oil too? In other words, we aren't talking about wells that don't exist, are we? Reel or real? Ans: Real. Productive wells on large reserves continue to process oil and gas. What about them?

    I searched the following question
    Will oil wells will shut down if price drops below $85?

  • EMC Upside to $37, Says Pac Crest; HP Deal Would Make Sense, Says UBS;
    By Tiernan Ray

    Last week’s fervent chatter about possible merger or buyout of EMC (EMC) by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Cisco Systems (CSCO), or another party, continues to draw opinions from the Street.

    UBS‘s Steve Milunovich today reiterates a Neutral rating on shares of HP, writing that “HP might or might not still be in discussions with EMC,” and that a deal to buy EMC “Strategically, a combination could make sense given the likelihood of eventual consolidation among the largest IT players.”

    Milunovich thinks “HP has enterprise vulnerabilities and EMC does not have a complete stack,” and that HP is a better suitor because “EMC management is more likely to have a role than if combining with Cisco.”

    Although HP CEO Meg Whitman has signaled to the Street in past that she’s not pursuing large deals, still, “HP has struggled in cloud, however, and might welcome help. Our surveys indicate that VMware is well positioned in hybrid cloud and could invigorate HP’s Helion effort. HP needs new capabilities to tap into Platform 3 workloads.”

    A deal done half in stock, half in cash “could be accretive on savings of over $1 billion in the first year,” he thinks.

    Also today, Pacific Crest‘s Brent Bracelin, who has an Outperform rating on EMC shares, and a $32 price target, wrote that there’s actually upside to $37 because it has “increasingly strategic value” in a world where cloud computing is making EMC and Cisco and other enterprise players converge.

  • Reply to

    Initiated position today in 401k.

    by countryinvestor Oct 2, 2014 1:15 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Oct 2, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    NICE MOVE...well at least for a while. I also added some.
    While this market will scare you you cannot look at just the price to make a decision......You need more information

  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. ( KMP ) will begin trading ex-dividend on July 29, 2014. A cash dividend payment of $1.39 per share is scheduled to be paid on August 14, 2014.
    My stake in KMP occurred on May 1, 2013 when KMP bought out Copano. The stock is up 21% since that buyout


    Have an AWESOME DAY! Remember successful investing is not a ONE DAY EVENT!

  • dividendbill by dividendbill Oct 2, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    It is not about today but about next month.........

  • Reply to

    you geniuses who have owned EMES

    by memshurama Aug 25, 2014 1:34 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Aug 25, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    We are not really geniuses, the fact that we have picked good stocks comes from research and listening to ideas from others. While we do not have to use the ideas of others, we sometime find out things that opens up our eyes and makes us gravitate towards a real winner. For me I have been since the low 40's and have actually sole some but only when I was up 120%, as I took my initial investment out. Many would ask me why I sold some, and the reason is that I have seen that being greedy ends up being less successful in the end.
    I own 20+ MLPs, maybe too many but all are green and all pay a decent dividend. @ recent investments for me have been DMLP and GSJK..The following is what basically led me to GSJK
    Low price with a 7% yield and recent information similsr to what was posted on SA

    The US shale gas and oil boom is creating heavy demand for compression equipment, which dramatically increases well yields.
    Compressco Partners yields well over 7% now, and says it will raise its distributions by 12% to 14% in 2015, which would equal an 8%-plus dividend yield.
    The company's distributions are well-covered, with an average 1.30 coverage ratio over the past four quarters.

    Just one of the many other necessary things needed from the ENERGY BOOM.

    Good Luck.

  • If one wants to capitalize on an opportunity one should buy some EBP for around 39/40 a unit, using the formula provided by the consolidation press release:

    "EPB unitholders will receive .9451 KMI shares and $4.65 in cash for each EPB unit. This results in a price of $38.79 per unit, a 15.4 percent premium based on the Aug. 8, 2014, closing prices. This is a premium of 11.2 percent based on the July 16 reference date used by the parties in the negotiation."

    The following will happen at least for a few days until ex-day arrives (Oct-29-2014)
    This will give you a .65 cent distribution. Now you have to wait until the end of the year when the consolidation happens (supposedly announced.) At that time the following will happen owners of EPB will get .9451 KMI shares and $4.65 in cash for each EPB unit. This will give you 945.1 shares of KMI and if you had purchased 1000 shares this would equal the following $650 from distribution, $4,650. cash from consolidation. Now because EPB is an MLP there may be a little tax involved, but the dividend will not have made much of a CB reduction and although not sure but there will probably be a tax assessed on the $4650. But you will also be getting 945+ shares that is going to start paying .50 a share in distributions in 2015. Should you wait until after the 29th of Oct you will miss out on distribution money, and may very well pay a higher price for the units.
    Just a thought!

  • While I initially thought it was the 28th the 21st is just fine. I am unsure about the continence of the .72 dividend but I now have 10000 units instead of 5000 units so makes no difference. Maybe I will sell some as I believe that is a much larger position than I want. Will let it settle out

    Have a Great Day

  • Reply to

    EMES, rum, sun and scantily clad babes

    by wallstpirate Aug 26, 2014 12:52 PM
    dividendbill dividendbill Aug 28, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    Finally someone who agrees with my approach without the cynical sideline messages that are used to distract us all from the job at hand which is to make money. Thank you for the kind words. It is sometimes hard to determine someone's motivation when a disagreement on a message board occurs, and everyone reacts in a different way. Some will hold on to the words of disagreement forever, and continue to make snide remarks directed towards the individual they apparently disagree with. Hey it s just a message board where ideas can be shared; not a competition to determine who is better in a pick-em contest. Everyone has the same aspirations for a successful outcome. I am always willing to listen to other ideas and make the determination as how it will work for me, or not. I have been in since the Nov. 29 of last year. If one cares they can look at the price at that time. Currently not buying at these prices as there are other fish to gather in, also hold HCLP. ABCAF! Not yet, and while they are still growing the feet to RUN, it looks interesting, but I need something besides a story of what it may be. My view is that we are not there yet.
    BTW: according to my Google portfolio including yesterday my return on EMES is 203.17%
    I could not be more satisfied!
    Good luck all

  • dividendbill by dividendbill Sep 11, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    It finally appears that EMC has another chance to get over $30 and stay there based upon AH numbers, and I wish them well as that stock has been price bound under $30 for a long time. Barring a down day or bad news they now have a chance to go forward. The $30 dollar barrier has been a major obstacle .

    I wish you all well!

  • Continue after football game for an overnight flight. I wonder if I should take a private JET, small plane, file a flight plan, or worry about which airport I will leave from. Some people from what I understand seem to care!
    Of course there is also the car rental, I wonder which service I should lose, or should I get a LIMO....LMAO

    For John
    After reading your note about Smithfield, PA something did not seem right so I did a search and typed in Smithfield, PA. What came back was Smithville, PA. I am sure that some will if they caught it, and they will now make a big deal about it, but is just another example of changing the discussion, changing the seriousness and lack of sensitivity and making a big deal over something that a search on Yahoo takes you there anyway. Had you left it out they would have made a big about it, because it takes away from the real meaning of the message. Anyway this does not take away anything from your message and exposes the Dummies for what they are. LMAO

  • dividendbill by dividendbill Sep 17, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    Eli Lilly and Co

51.27+0.37(+0.73%)Oct 23 4:01 PMEDT

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