I do this all the time for my own benefit, but here it is if you would like to debate it.
Actimmne - 1B
Ravicti/Buphenyl - 200 mil
Pennsaid - 80 mil
Dvexis - 112 mil
Rayos - 25 mil
Vimovo - 100 mil
Total potential annual sales 1.517B
10x Sales which is low for a biotech = 15.17B in market cap
Dividend by 154,500,000 shares outstanding = $98 price target. for the full current value of this pipeline.
I took that down to 54% today. I added to my SWKS and took it up to 10% of my portfolio. It had a nice pull back today, and I strongly believe my numbers show it can be worth $300 by 2020.
I always though CART was a very dangerous procedure that had very little economic benefit. This is just CELG agreeing with me. If you look at CART, There can be some serious adverse reactions. When you remove blank T-cells and modify them and put them back into the body. There is high risk of the patient rejecting these cells or the cells actually attacking the wrong targets. I seen one fatality in a CART patient that turned fatal when these modified cells attacked the patients healthy cells in the heart.
Yes, I now have the conviction in the long term. It wasn't till I saw todays numbers on that call. They were even better then I estimated in my 57B market cap. That makes me very comfortable with a long term holding now.
I think OVTI is competing for second place in that space. It is a far better value though and more diversified.
Welcome back. I doubled down today on SWKS and flagged it as a core position now. It wont leave my portfolio as long as this great story stays intact.
Today at $105.48 I doubled my size of SWKS from 5% of my portfolio to 10%. This is now my core position and is deemed long term like my CELG position I bought a few years ago. I will not sell this position now. I will add to it if we get a great correction. I can take SWKS up to 20% of my portfolio and then maintain that 20% as it goes higher over the next 5 years. From the presentation they just did I now think my estimates of $12 for 2020 are conservative.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
On todays presentation, SWKS also put forth a 2B smart phone target for 2020. My numbers could prove to be conservative.
For comparison: If SWKS were to trade at the same valuation as AMBA we would be at $213 instead of $106. Would you buy SWKS today if it were at $213?
SWKS isn't trading at 2x growth though. It only trades at 1x growth. Big difference in valuation.
I still agree with you. AMBA is a fantastic company, but the momentum in its stock is terrifying. First time something goes wrong, that stock will get wrecked hard. I just don't like playing those risk games. I would much prefer the good steady companies like SWKS.