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ConocoPhillips Message Board

dividendseeker 1117 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Aug 18, 2008
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  • dividendseeker by dividendseeker 5 hours ago Flag

    We have several events that are coming together to form a perfect storm against stocks. They are:
    1. China - China is in complete and utter collapse. Anything even remotely related to China is getting destroyed. I wonder where all those people are who kept saying you just had to get in on the big China rally are now?
    2. Greece - Not really an event in itself, but what it is doing to the dollar is more significant. The dollar continues to rally on every bad headline out of Greece. This will kill earnings for a majority of US companies that depend on exports.
    3. Oil is collapsing again - This wipes out about 20% of the S&P by itself. Not to mention it will drag down overall S&P EPS estimates going forward. It also bodes ominous to many who see it fortelling weakness in the Global economy.
    4. Fear of higher rates now - For a long time every one kept insisting the FED had to raise rates. Now that the Global economy seems doomed with China and Greece, now the fear is that the FED will raise rates and strangle a now weaker US economy.
    5. Technicals - Has any of you chartist looked at a 5 or 10 year chart of the S&P? It doesnt look so hot. The 10 year chart has executed its first bearish MACD crossover since 2011.
    All these events together could take us into a much larger correction for which we havent seen sine 2011. I am talking about a 15 to 20% correction of scale. With all that said, I am still optimistic that many of these issues are way blown out of porportion. I also believe that so many have already raised hordes of cash ahead of a possible FED rate hike which leaves to question, Who is left to sell? I do think we can see a very good correction here tough. I spent the last few months preparing myself for up to a 21% correction. We will see if that game plan needs to be executed.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 5 hours ago Flag

    Very intelligent response. As we go out 5 years though, it is projected that by 2020, 90% of phones will be 4G or LTE (maybe 5G by then). That means the pie for all 3 companies gets much bigger as those low content 2G and 3G phone become obsolete. I an certain that SWKS will remain the king of RF and hold the majority of content. The Multi band and MIMO will drive content which SWKS is the best player to build a complete package. I hear a lot of debate about SAW or BAW being the best filters. SAW are much smaller, take up less room and use less power. They are best for up to 1 to 1.5 GHz. BAW filters are designed for 2GHz to 2.5 GHz. I don't think either will be going anywhere soon. They will still both be needed to build out all the frequencies. If need be, SWKS could get into BAW filters for their needs in higher end frequencies.

  • Reply to

    Hey Stockgirrl

    by dividendseeker 13 hours ago
    dividendseeker dividendseeker 6 hours ago Flag

    Thank you. Sound like that IDTI pattern could get very ugly? Maybe even go below $18?

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 6 hours ago Flag

    Did you see my other 2 posts? I addressed one to you? One is Hey Stockgirrl where I asked for your expertise with 2 other companies. The other was just a reference to you and I cant remember the other lol.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 6 hours ago Flag

    I agree with stockgirrl. Once SWKS broke that support of $102, it now has to test the next level of support which was around $93 from back in April I believe. I got my bid in today at $99.62 as scheduled. I am debating my next bid, but I believe I will set it at $89.66 which is about where it had the intraday low back in that previous big pullback. Maybe I it, maybe I don't. I have a question though stockgirrl. We broke below the neckline before forming a right shoulder, does this change the pattern?

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 7 hours ago Flag

    I have been a HAIN shareholder for a long time now. I love the story and management. With that said, I don't like the valuation what so ever. I think any CEO who would buy HAIN at this valuation would have to be an Epic Moron. Hey, there might be one out there somewhere so keep hoping.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 7 hours ago Flag

    Yes, this was just a Apples to Apples Revenues and market cap analysis. It is the easiest cause it skips past all the details of synergies and net income. If you notice HZNP's current Price to Sales is 15. I only used 10 to be conservative. This would be a basis valuation of the combined company. HZNP will still grow and will eventually go through $38 and grow to possibly $96 if Actimmue works out as well as I expect. If this deal closes, we would be worth $38 as combined company vs the $33.86 we closed today at. The growth profile certain wouldn't go down, and I think would certainly improve. I am not ready to dig into DEPO to see what kind of growth it could contribute. That would be pointless unless a deal gets done.

  • HZNP Revenue estimates for year end 2015 are 607 Mil. DEPO Revenue estimates for year end 2015 are 328 Mil. The combined entity would have 935 Mil in year end 2015 sales. The 3 Billion offer was all HZNP stock that would take 86, 855,820 HZNP at the July 6th closing price of 34.54. This would raise HZNP shares outstanding to 241,325,820. It would boost Revenues about 50% and dilute shares by an equal amount of 50%. If you take 935 Mil in revenues and put 10x Price to sales on them you get to 9.35B in Market cap. Take that and divide it by the new share count and you get to $38.44 for the value of the combined company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 9 hours ago Flag

    It is not bashing if you right lol. Especially when your trying to get people out of the burning building. Some people don't want to be saved though.

  • Reply to

    Wow what a roller coaster day!

    by cheetah_two 11 hours ago
    dividendseeker dividendseeker 9 hours ago Flag

    You know my style bro. I set my bids and forget about them. I do all my research and then let the market to the heavy lifting for me. The one thing you can always count on is the market will have fits like today and let me buy stocks at prices I should never be allowed to. I spent the day running errands. My riding mower broke over the weekend while I was doing the yard so I had to go get parts for it. I think my SWKS bid triggered while I was at the doctor for my dad and my IDTI bid hit while I was at the grocery store lol. That is my kind of investing. I am guessing the doc hasn't cleared you yet for Golf after your surgery?

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 9 hours ago Flag

    Thanks for that Todd. That is very interesting indeed.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 9 hours ago Flag

    I am not sure what your beef is with Cheetah, but I don't think I care. I am sure if he is bashing a company, I would probably be agreeing with him lol. And if it is MU, I have been bashing it since $30. And apparently for good reason since it is down $12 straight from there.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 9 hours ago Flag

    I am not sure what you mean, but since Cheetah is someone who I really respect, I will take that as a compliment.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 10 hours ago Flag

    Their current content is $10. How many times does the CEO have to say it before you listen. Yes, I know they don't have all of the RF content in a phone, but your not accurately representing what their content really is. They will grow their content from $10 to $15 dollar over 5 years. That is not unbelievable, especially, when it comes from one of the best and smartest CEO's in the business. Have you ever asked yourself if the people writing those articles know what their talking about? You name me one analysts who has had SWKS right since it was at $10 in stock price. Here we are at $100 and they are still underestimating SWKS. So I ask you again. Who are you going to believe? Some talking head with a article or the CEO who runs the company?

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 10 hours ago Flag

    You will have to forgive me if I take my info from the real experts like David Aldrich of SWKS. He has told us many times on his calls that SWKS' content in the IPhone is $10. I remember when he held up his phone and said, "This phone has $10 of Skyworks content in it." I can't help if your total research consist of reading some article by God Knows Who and just parroting what some other idiot said.

  • Reply to

    Hey Stockgirrl

    by dividendseeker 13 hours ago
    dividendseeker dividendseeker 11 hours ago Flag

    CELG is in a good uptrend. Right now it is consolidating its recent gains. It seems to be forming a cup and handle before it goes higher. This is the prime time of year for biotech. It was the largest position in my portfolio from $110 down to $108, but now I took off some of that profit. I will let the rest ride now. If your not in CELG, then I would say buy 1/4 position and wait. If it pulls back to below $115 then add some. That way your positioned for anything.

  • Reply to

    Hey Stockgirrl

    by dividendseeker 13 hours ago
    dividendseeker dividendseeker 12 hours ago Flag

    Ya, I had a few bids trigger today. I now stand at
    CELG - 12.5%
    HZNP -5%
    WWAV -2.5%
    HAIN -2.5%
    SWKS -12.5%
    IDTI -12.5%
    NXPI -7.5% I missed my GTC bid going off by about 3 cents today.
    I am now sitting at exactly 50/50 cash and stocks. I will buy till I reach 20% cash or my stocks bottom. That last 20% doesn't get used unless the market really gets trashed. Right now I only have 3 of my 7 stocks that are pulling back. CELG is in a strong uptrend. HZNP is down but still above my last purchase. WWAV and HAIN are just so overvalued I wouldn't touch them till they came down at least 10%.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 12 hours ago Flag

    No idea. TW might already have a big money manger lined up on his side if he decided to take this route. Personally, I think its a win/ win for us. If the deal does get done, then we win cause they said it would immediately add to earnings. If it does not go through, we still win because HZNP is still got a huge growth profile with out Depomed. Right now the stock is down because people are worried they may have to raise the bid and overpay. I don't think they need to or should since the premium already offered should be enough to motivate many shareholders in Depomed to be mad that their not taking the deal. I know if it was HZNP that had a 30% premium offer and they said no, I would be like, "Excuse Me?"

  • dividendseeker by dividendseeker 12 hours ago Flag

    Sorry, I didn't post earlier. I went to do some running around today and just go home. I had a go to complete order in for IDTI at 20.15. I was pleasantly surprised that my bid triggered while I was out.

  • dividendseeker dividendseeker 12 hours ago Flag

    We see this every quarter now. People get all worried about sales of phones in China. This is exactly what happened last quarter that cause the sell off in SWKS. Then we get earnings and people realize you cant look at these numbers in a vacuum and paint the whole sector with a broad brush. Too many wannabe analysts out there who want to be the one who called the top in smart phone sales. Their about 5 years too soon. I realize that China number may have been less then expected, but isn't summer always the weak time for sales? Right now China is in complete disaster. That is dragging down the good along with the bad. Until Aldrich tells me they are seeing some signs of slowdown, I am not going to listen to nose and that is exactly what analysts are. Analysts have no greater insight into anything we don't have. Be careful "expected" is a very dangerous word lol.

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