I think 110 down to 100, if we get that lucky, is a good spot when you look at CELG for the next 5 years. At that point, its not too expensive on last years earnings and is very cheap on forward earnings.
We had 3 report tonight and all 3 were bad. they all missed on revenues even with the estimates being so low and they all lost money. What ever happened to frackers are profitable at $40 oil. They lost money with an average of $48 oil in Q1.
Depends on your current position. If your fully loaded then wait and see how the stock reacts to the news. I think it drifts lower into the release and rallies off it. If you have room to do some buying maybe you buy a bit before and after assuming it has a downdraft after the news is released.
Everyone keeps saying, "They can make money at $40 oil". Guess what? They are all posting losses at $50 oil. These companies are trading where they were at $90 oil when we have $60 oil. Many of investors are going to feel like complete dopes for buying this junk. Just cant touch them yet. Better off putting that money in one our 4 horsemen then oil companies bleeding cash and racking up debt to pay the bills.
I think its a disaster. People paying $100 for a company that is priced for $90 oil when we got $60 oil. Company had to borrow 990 mil just to pay the bills. Oil stocks (not the commodity) are in a bubble. Everyone wants to bet the recovery is right around the corner and their now getting garbage for their money.
Me and gettninfront use the same strategy. I look for overbought or over hyped moments. For overbought I look for an RSI above 75. The hype comes from when a lot of good analysts momentum comes that drives the stock to higher levels then normal. This happened just recently when SWKS got moved into the S&P 500 and funds had to buy. The stock ran and ran not taking any real breaks to consolidate. It was inevitable that it would have to correct. Usually I target 10% down then 20% down to add and 25 - 30% up to take some off. This happens usually twice a year you get those kind of corrections.
I agree. The patent case has been priced in since we heard about it last year. That is why CELG has been constantly the cheapest biotech in the market on a forward P/E. Once this goes away it should go higher as it gets priced inline with its peer like REGN and BIIB. It is common belief that CELG will end up conceding 2 years of patent in EU for Revlimid reducing it to 2022. If we something worse then that, you might see a bit of a sell off, but if we get better then expected then the shorts are going to get crushed.
Nice part about this strategy is, if I don't want to trade, I don't have too. I only trade when I feel like it. Taking off the 50% I use for trading does sometime have you miss some upside, but there are always corrections to put the trading portion back on. The core position is always there so even if it has a big move you still making money. For most of my long term positions my core holding is way below the cost of my trading positions.
toast laid out a great case for the valuation which I completely agree with. My answer is more simple. When you have companies like SWKS with great management and a good long term growth trend driving their earnings, you stay on board until the story shows signs of ending. Trading is about timing the market when investing is about time in the market. You can do one or both. I have found over many years of investing that long term way outperforms trading by far. Many times I have bought a company and was so right on the long term story and opted to settle for a short term gain only to regret it later. Example: back in the 2010, I bought BMY at $21 because I loved the new strategy they were taking to transform the company. After a nice run up to $30, I figured this was great and took my profits. Today BMY trades at just under $65 dollars. I exchanged a long term 220% gain for a short term 50% profit. I learned that long term beats these quick in and out trades for 5 or 10%, After that I bought CELG and held it ever since and its been my second best performer of my lifetime up over 250%. Today I use a hybrid strategy buying 50% of my position for long term holding and the other 50% I use to trade the gyrations of the market buying the big pullbacks usually 10% down and selling the big rips when I see the stock getting overbought. This Hybrid strategy by far outperforms both single strategies.
April was all about big funds selling what benefits from cheap oil and buying oil. May could bring a reversal of that trade as oil stocks now look overvalued and the airlines are very cheap.
Yes, the key is us as human beings. If we love a company and believe in it, we will buy more if it drops 10%. If we are playing a trade and it goes down 10% they we panic and sell because we don't believe in the company. Worst thing is when you have no confidence in a company and sell it down 10% because you freaked out right at the bottom.
If your doing it for an earnings trade then you have to sell the catalysts. I bought both BMRN and SWKS yesterday for earnings. I sold both right on the open today. If you buy a stock for a catalyst, then you sell it after regardless of if you were right or not. Now if your buying SWKS for an investment then the complete opposite is true. Never turn a trade into and investment and never turn a good investment into a trade.
No problem. I found it very interesting myself. I think BMRN is still a buy. Its one of those you buy some and hope the market throws you a sale so you can build a nice position over a long term. Basically the same advice I would give on SWKS.
What planet are you from? Does this "let's try to scare people who don't read" work often?
NXPI's biggest headwind is the currency translations to Dollars when they report. Most analysts are able to adjust those numbers. Now that earnings are behind us, they will be all focused on the merger till next earnings.
I think they are much the same. High quality companies in the 10 to 20B market cap that make great take out targets.
BMRN is one of my favorites. It is speculative since they don't actually have positive earnings, but its growing like a weed. Their pipeline of rare and orphan drugs is incredible. Their management (JJ) is very strong.