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American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. Message Board

divyinvstr 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 30, 2014 3:13 PM Member since: Jun 30, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Market expected more of a beat?

    by mudbuttmike Oct 30, 2014 12:47 PM
    divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 30, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    No, I think the implication that the new plants are opening more slowly than expected (slower than expected growth) combined with the weakness in oil prices.

  • Reply to

    18% Distribution Increase!!

    by tylertiff Oct 23, 2014 4:02 PM
    divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 23, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    Agree, third quarter much better than I, at least, expected. Happy to have been wrong!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $120s

    by flightmomentum Oct 22, 2014 4:45 AM
    divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 23, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Appears third quarter was great. Annualized from $4.68 to $5.52!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    $120s

    by flightmomentum Oct 22, 2014 4:45 AM
    divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 22, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    Not sure third quarter earnings will do it. Perhaps better spot pricing will increase DCF. Keep in mind that 5 cents of the last dividend was paid from a previous quarter. Not sure that the new plants have contributed in a really meaningful way as yet. However, the 4th quarter and 2015 guidance will, hopefully, begin the process of moving the price back to the 120+ level.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 10, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    I believe the chart represents the price needed to meet each country's internal budget requirements, not the cost to pump oil - the price needed to pay off the population.

  • Reply to

    Why the reversal

    by chicadow Oct 6, 2014 2:51 PM
    divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 6, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    If the growth story concerning demand for sand remains intact, or is even generally intact, EMES will continue to move higher. It is not so unusual after such a huge rally for gains to be taken during periods of little or no confirming information. However, with the distribution announcement in late October and, particularly, the quarterly disclosures on or about November 6 concerning future DCF guidance we will get real information and not talking head opinions. Given that we have been told during fairly recent presentations by EMES and others in the industry that demand has been exceeding supply I find it unlikely that market forces have reversed to the extent that the sand growth story has been reversed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thinking divvy announcement 10-6

    by a0002604 Oct 5, 2014 11:02 PM
    divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 6, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    The first monthly dividend will be declared in October and paid in November, The third quarter dividend will be a three month, or quarterly, dividend.

  • Reply to

    RECENT DROP beside divy

    by bn538 Sep 30, 2014 3:26 PM
    divyinvstr divyinvstr Oct 1, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Yes, there is sensitivity to movements in the 10 year UST, but much (though not all) of the Treasury movement is hedged. What is not hedged is the relative price movement between mortgage backed securities and and UST securities. When mortages widen versus Treasuries MREITs generally trade down as there has been an unhedged hit to book value. The opposite is also true, MREITs tend to perform positively when mortgages yields tighten to Treasuries.
    Additionally, fear (as well as actual) of short rates rising will cause MREIT prices to decline as any relative rise in short rates reduces the spread between borrowing costs and the portfolio yield, directly reducing income available to pay dividends.

    Sentiment: Hold

MTGE
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