Skyworks Solutions Inc. Message Board

I can't stress enough by the way, we hear about the "hunt for yield" like it is an undercurrent, but if you talk to anyone who is actually a conduit for real investment it is everything right now. It is why otherwise weak soverigns have been propped up. Real estate markets are seeing a move into non-core assets. Good dividend paying consumer staple stocks are off the chart. The way our pension acconting works forces these entitie to go after yield or recognize massive, massive shortfalls. Like I said, this still seems to be in early stages, which means it can be ridden for a good while yet, but it is subject to factors other than fundamentals that are impossible to predict.

You would actually be credited with the $125 in wat you describe. And keep in mind you would need to keep substantial capital for margin requirements. And if you want to make sure you dont get forced out at a loss you would want to keep double or triple the margin requirement... so yeah it is basically like owning the common...

Too funny, another MB poster who predicts doom for weeks straight and then after the fact claims to be long going in to a 25% pop...right.

And by the way, your option strategy is about as "cheap" as actually being long the stock. It may take less capital up front than buying the stock, but you are still on the hook for all losses.

You stick with it over the weekend or cover rurkey? I have watched you trade this succesffully maybe dozens of times, but I think you jumped the gun on this one. Although if history is any guide you will hve the chance to cover monday AM, but AM onl

You will just have to see where it opens, the AH price is not a good indicator. Things seem in your favor t do well on this lottery ticket, but when the volatility is sucked out tomorrow you are really only left with the intrinsic value... good luck

Heh, you got another paycheck to bet on puts? I thought we got rid of you once in for all...

Yeah good point, it is possible the orders and ordering trends could appear soft even though the channels have been better managed from the company's perspective. Those two perspectives could mismatch pretty significantly. Although you would really think the excess inventory would have resulted in weak orders... but yeah, it is really hard to game it, especially in any given quarter. I have gone in circles plenty of times over the past few years trying to think these things through.

Good post dd, and have to agree on pretty much all points. One thing I don't understand is that Seth has said here and in other forums that the comps from last year are really tough based on his channel data / methods, but I don't see how that is possible. This quarter last year there were a lot of issues as you point out, and unfortunately they were management's making. Not even a fundamental end user / sales problem, just poor forecasting and seemingly losing grasp of the business led to major discounting, product in marshalls and other jobbers, invenstory write-off, etc. I guess to Seth's point they may have moved a lot of product, but it was beccause they had too much and t came at a major cost to all of us. Still burns me a little to think about how badly the conference call went. Management sounded like they had just found out that afternoon that the quarter didn't go wellit was as bad as they come... But, they clearly pulled it together and got the message. Things got much tighter in each of the two calls that followed, and Blanford went out on a high note. Reporting was better with the inventory detail, forecasting seems more reliable, and the proof is in the recent performance and the abundant anecdotal evidence that the channels are being managed well. Kelley is rationalizing production now... We may be seeing some additional knock-offs, but as has been discussed extensively they are clearly inferior and have not eroded pricing margins nearly at all.

I didn't read into the sbux numbers much, but yeah that is a surprisingly big number. So surprising the market clearly didn't know how to digest it, probably had the same reaction I do of needing to go look at that ER again... Bigger picture it is funny to think sbux is a $45B co that earned $1.4B last year, and what a little over 2B in EBITDA last year? I don't know the forward expectation, but enough to justify a 45B valuation, really? I would much rather have the dominant single serve platform than a bunch of coffee shops. I have huge respect for Shultz coming back and reviving the brand and the co. but the valuation is insane. I'm not advocating getting short here, but if the coffee price trend reverses in the next few seasons the trade will be brutal.

Yes, interesting to know you did jump back in a bit. I go around in circles on it. Do expect a solid quarter, and as always there are plenty of caalysts to look for on the call or otherwise. I will have to assess the trading headed into the ER though, if it doesn't run may get a bit long, but we'lll see. Even with the positives I fully expect it is just not the same nobrainer for me it was the last few times around. Currently abut 20% in cash, so have some flexibility, but not a ton...

Good analogy on aapl, I don't expect them to ever get the respect (multiple) they deserve, but for a long term holding that is pretty irrelevant, they can return the actual cash flow in divis and buybacks. I expect they will still be in fine shape after returning 200B to investors over the next 5-6 years. And at this multiple the buy back makes sense, but wouldn't have minded seeing a big one time special divi, a 100B reduction in the market cap via a divi would bump the yield well over 4%.

I don't think we are there yet, big talk of international launches that is. The next phase of this is rationalizing production, product lines, and sales channels get the best pricing and the lowest cost we can. Together with modest top lin growth can keep adding solidly to EPS... If people start banking on vague "international growth" it would be a potential negative for me, like what people have said about mnst for the past couple of years. I do think there are some attractive markets, maybe Brazil, and a few others. Don't see us getting a good enough foothold in espresso drinking europe. China could definitely see some westernized or chic consumers taking interest, but it is obviously not for the masses there... We'll see though, obviously some incremental opportunities, but bank on doubling EPS from domestic initiatives first.

Yeah, nothing huge today, but no caution flags is a win for gmcr, and has been for the past how ever many months. I still say more efficient opertions, rationalizing the product portfoio, and targeted marketing are the incremental gains we will see in the next 6 to 12 months. I do beleive this q will put up a solid number and outlook, but how the market will react is a mystery for me at the moment.

Hey Squeeze, you go long again? I am still flat from a couple dollars or so ago. Tried and failed at getting clever about calling a top. If the IV gets up there going in to the ER I may write some puts or look at some calendar spreads, but I don't think the controversy is really there this time.

In the meantime am in aapl in a big way, traded the last couple of pops, and doubled down when 400 broke... We'll see what happens, but at this price and with this buyback why own the market when you can just own aapl? Couple of small cap names with nice valuations and big buybacks too... just offcially caught a double in lgf, valuation may be getting up there, but I love their franchises and management. Got killed on the gld and auy though... Been a busy spring! Hope you were bigger than ever on fio headed into that ER!