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University General Health System, Inc. Message Board

djensen92110 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2014 12:27 AM Member since: Oct 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Conference Call 7.3.14

    by djensen92110 Jul 3, 2014 3:41 PM
    djensen92110 djensen92110 Jul 16, 2014 12:27 AM Flag

    This is still a risky investment. These guys need to sell of some off their toxic assets and focus on 3 new hospitals outside Houston. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks

  • Reply to

    Conference Call 7.3.14

    by djensen92110 Jul 3, 2014 3:41 PM
    djensen92110 djensen92110 Jul 16, 2014 12:23 AM Flag

    The 10k was for 2013 not 2014. I would expect to see info on salary reduction in 10Qs coming soon.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call 7.3.14

    by djensen92110 Jul 3, 2014 3:41 PM
    djensen92110 djensen92110 Jul 3, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    UGHS has 2 months to show us progress. When we start seeing announcements on debt deal and good results in 10Qs, I think we’ll start seeing bigger investors buy in and stock moving up. Once/If these guys get in a better financial position, then they need to uplist to NYSE and trade at the industry multiple of 20, placing their stock price at around $1.50 (eps $.075?). Not taking into account reverse split required for uplist, new acquisitions or 3 new hospitals outside Houston. Each new hospital was previously estimated to make $20m EBITDA, which, if true, would make stock price double to $3.00. These guys are sitting on a gold mine if they do it right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • djensen92110 by djensen92110 Jul 3, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    2013 was obviously a greater disappointment than expected. Having said that, IMO there was actually some good news in addition to revenue increase and controlling one time expenses:

    1) The promotion of Kris Trent to CFO (and Mike Griffin focused solely on Dallas). Should have happened a year ago. I think they finally have some financial controls in place. Did I hear correctly on conf call that Dallas is already cash positive?

    2) Houston is still flagship profit center estimating $25-$30m Adj EBITDA for 2014. I’m not sure if this takes into account the new $1m/mo savings. They were saying $25m last year before the new $1m/mo savings, so maybe this means $37m reliably going forward?

    3) Goal is to be profitable by year’s end. Expecting SEC filings on a timely basis starting with Q2 filing. Maybe I’m being gullible, but I actually believe them.

    4) Focus continues to use debt and cash going forward instead of issuing new shares. Good. Still not clear how they are structuring the new debt deals, but they need something to get rid of penalty payments and consolidate.

    5) Pres. Don Sapaugh is still answering our calls and emails. Good. Exec compensation reduced. Good (Unexpected but glad to see it).

    6) I think the best news, whether we like it or not, is the fact they are finally being more open about the complexities of their biz and the steps they are taking going forward. If biz unit isn’t profitable then fix it or cut it loose. Sounds like they had a couple Come to Jesus meetings. We’ve all been there. Painful, but needed.

    get in a better financial position, then they need to uplist to NYSE and trade a

UGHS
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