Always good to hear from you. I appreciate the detective work--you’re translating Danish? That really is above and beyond the call of duty! The Nestle product sounds potentially huge.
The way the CDXS contract is constructed is critical. In listening to the last conference call, they are really pursuing long term contracts on blockbuster drugs that include milestone and royalty payments. If CDXS can do that with this new Nestle baby formula... OK, maybe I WILL hold on for a bit longer!
Hell, I don’t know! :) No profit taking, but no follow-through buying.
Honestly, I don’t anticipate any bad news on the horizon(don’t see financing for at least another couple quarters). CDXS is on a major roll now. There will be ups and downs, but I’m inclined to think we reach 3.00 by the end of the month with one or two small pullbacks on the way. Another piece of good news and it will really go stratospheric.
Would I consider this a strong buy at these levels?--probably not, because of the nearly 100% run-up in the last six weeks. All IMHO.
That was the last time we closed higher than today. Volume was good, not great, but did accelerate as we broke through the low 2.7’s. Any follow-through tomorrow would be very bullish. Typically, we give back about 2/3 of our gain the next day. We’ll see. Glad I talked myself out of selling any shares a couple weeks ago.
Next resistance? 3.0-3.05. Any TA experts out there?
This is fun, but I’m keeping one finger on the “Sell” button.
I am very optimistic about the next 1-2 years for CDXS.
However, I am considering taking some chips off the table.
The stock has had a massive run-up over the last few weeks.
We are in a trading range from early to mid-2013 with a high of 2.72. I don’t see us breaking out without more good news and volume.
If recent charts(and these low-volume up days) are any indicator, I am looking for a pullback to the low 2.20’s.
I would love to be wrong.
Regardless, CDXS will be a big part of my portfolio for a long time.
You ask a difficult question. The average volume for this 2 dollar stock is still so low that one person with deep pockets can change the whole day. In mid-July, the stock reacted to the Glaxo deal, however daytraders were responsible for most of the action. There were several lots of 50k or greater that I suspect were mutual funds buying, but I have no evidence to support that.
I still think that most of the action since mid-July consists of short-term traders unwinding their positions and some accumulation from longs. We may slowly drift higher with lower volumes, much as we did in February.
This company is SO under the radar. It really should be getting more attention. Hello--CASH FLOW POSITIVE!
I wasn’t hallucinating.
Right after the doctor finished his(boring) comments, several positive comments from John Nichols--
A non-pharmaceutical Master Service Agreement with a chemical company (not allowed to give details at this time) and a "multi year contract with a Major European generic drug maker”. No specifics were given.
I don’t think either are as significant as the GSK deal, but still very positive.
Management sounded very upbeat.
OK, I was trying to multitask, so I wasn’t listening real carefully.
I swear they said they have another deal, besides the GSK deal, that is in the works, but can’t be discussed at present. Did anyone else listen? This sounded pretty important.
Thanks in advance!
Terms seem good. Approximately $10 million per year in interest payments for the next 6-7 years for $900 million cash, less fees/expenses. No dilution until at least 8/15/2017. Conversion price $120-$125. Completely sold out, if not oversold.
Seems mildly positive to me.
dwbodwb2 is right. No big news expected.
Selling with small lots and average or below average volume doesn’t concern me. Heavy selling concerns me--we haven’t seen any of that. Going long can mean an hour, a week, or a month. There may not be a lot of additional profit in CDXS for the next several weeks. Lots of smaller investors have been taking some profit and moving elsewhere. No big deal. I am holding on at least until the end of the calendar year. We should see at least one more run higher in that time frame.
I’m not expecting great earnings next week. They had no new revenue announcements in the second quarter.
The Hungary facility sale was in the first quarter. The first GSK payment will affect quarter number three.
What I do hope to hear is a bit more on the GSK deal, especially if they can give more specific revenue estimates from the deal. Also, any other hints about upcoming deals would be great.
They will definitely update the expense side/cash burn, etc...
Sorry, should have posted on your thread rather than starting my own.
I agree, it was a really good day. The fundamentals of the company are sound.
They have plenty of cash. They are as lean as possible. Big Pharma is looking to save money and CDXS provides an answer.
The cause for the volume--Institutional investors, possibly big private investors or insiders. All very bullish.
More on my thread. :)
Disclaimer: I am not a finance expert.
It appears to me that on Tuesday and especially Monday there were periods of heavy volume in the mid-afternoon with minimal price movement.
Today there was very heavy volume in the mid-afternoon(after a slow morning) and the price rocketed up.
My guess is that institutional investors were accumulating on Monday and Tuesday. Market makers were able to meet the demand without any trouble. Today, the supply ran out(perhaps by design).
If not institutional investors, then insiders or BIG private investors were involved. It all seems pre-planned to me. Regardless, these buyers thought the company was a great buy at $1.95 or higher.
All very bullish considering the huge run up a couple weeks ago.
Any other opinions are appreciated. I don’t even know if market makers get involved in two dollar stocks.
One more piece of good news this year(Nestle?) and this small-cap will soon be a mid-cap.
I miss the days when I could look at Thomson Financial, before they were bought out, and see institutional activity for the day. Does anyone know of any free websites for monitoring institutional trading?
Also, how does one find recent short interest. Yahoo’s info is two months old.
Thanks in advance.
Good to hear from you dwbodwb2!
This deal will add 11 million dollars over the last two quarters of the fiscal year. That is a BIG bump.
I'm curious if the company will approach break even over that time period.
Over the life of the deal, if GSK has a blockbuster drug, CDXS will do very well.
Ignore all the chatter on the board. They will all move on to the next target in a day or two.
Curious if any mutual funds have been buying or is it all just day traders.
This will be a crazy day. I have no idea where the share price will land.
The really good thing about this deal is not just the new revenue. It is the fact that their new business model has been vindicated. They have cut expenses very well. Now we have new revenue. Longs have been rewarded.
This is like landing a big recruit in college sports. Now other pharma companies will take notice and other deals will follow.
Very positive news. Any potential need for cash has just been postponed for another year or more. No dilution anytime soon.
CDXS is dead money right now. Despite all my planning, I didn’t anticipate the daily volume dropping so low. It is very difficult to trade in or out.
The cash burn is great--very low. They are set on cash for a long time. My basic view of the company is still positive, however, they didn’t release one piece of positive PR the entire second quarter. This is a slow process.
Right now it is totally news driven. A piece of good news and it’s off to the races. When that happens is anybody’s guess. Could be 6 months or more.
The success of the new business plan remains to be seen.