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Cerus Corporation Message Board

djgustave 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 26, 2016 8:53 AM Member since: Dec 22, 1998
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  • djgustave by djgustave Apr 26, 2016 8:53 AM Flag

    A long quiet period. Nothing has changed since the last earnings report.
    We will receive approximately 8 million dollars of revenue(give or take) per quarter. Also, we will receive a 7.5 million and a 7 million dollar milestone payment sometime during the second through fourth quarters. That puts my total at 47.5 million dollars for the year--right in the middle of the projected range. My guess-two quarters will be in the red and two quarters will be in the black. The first quarter will be red.
    Also, I hope to get clues regarding increased R & D, hiring, increased revenue from food clients, and new contracts. Eventually, the lawsuit will be settled, but that will likely take until next year.

    Finally, we should have a big new contract announced--probably October through March.
    All in my opinion, of course.

    I’m still holding.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Today, I am a buyer and have changed my sentiment accordingly. Time will tell if this was a good idea or not.

    There are really only a few large institutional holders of CDXS. Most of these funds, just like the rest of us, would like to make a profit in 6 months and not 3 years. CDXS may be dead money for a while, so they decided to put some of their money elsewhere. Watch, these same holders will be buying back in when the price is $4.00.

    The idea that they know something bad that we don’t isn’t necessarily true. I think the only piece of bad news that might come up is share dilution in order to raise more cash. The conference call made that prospect seem less likely in the near future.

    To all doubters, please reread the edited transcript of the conference call. I’ve probably read it ten times. Read it carefully. There are a lot of clues in there. This company is run conservatively, which I like. But, it still has the potential to receive enormous licensing agreements and royalties. The third licensing agreement with a third major Pharma... Proof of concept on a blockbuster drug with a third major Pharma... I assume these are the same things, but there is no way to know. Either way, it sounds like great news.

    Imagine this company with positive earnings and a P/E ratio. This will be a reality in a year or two. Did you know that the average biotech company has a P/E of 145? (Not sure CDXS qualifies as a biotech, but you get the idea)

    In my opinion, the time to sell would have been a month ago. Now is not the time to sell.

    Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    HOT Longs Going Up

    by lilyhaleyuu125150 Mar 22, 2016 3:37 PM
    djgustave djgustave Mar 23, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    CDXS has almost no short activity. Try again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • djgustave by djgustave Mar 22, 2016 10:44 AM Flag

    1-People are getting worried
    2-Nothing has changed since the conference call
    3-MFI is very low=oversold
    4-Time to pick some more shares

    It is all about your time horizon. If you don’t have three years to give to CDXS, then it might not be a good fit for you. I am considering changing my sentiment from hold to buy. Mainly because CDXS cash position is still fairly strong and their business plan makes sense to me. A small company like this that isn’t drowning in debt is a rarity. Look for two milestone announcements in the coming months. I would be shocked if the share price isn’t higher very soon. A break below $3.00 on high volume would be bearish. Until that occurs, I’m not concerned.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • For long-term holders, I thought the conference call was reasonably positive.

    $23.3 million in cash. Only down $3.2 million in 2015. It is very possible that they don’t raise cash soon or at all.

    “Modest hiring” per our CEO. Increased number of R & D employees. More work from Merck than anticipated.

    Over $1 million per quarter from a food customer.

    A significant licensing deal with a third major pharma by the end of the year--probably fourth quarter, IMHO.

    $46-$49 million in revenue, a 10-17% increase, WITHOUT the third licensing deal included.

    Margins 80-85%.

    These are just a few items.

    I realize that CDXS seems like dead money at times. If you have guts, sell now and buy back in the fall. I have gotten burned doing that before. Our CEO seemed really excited about 2018 and beyond. At that point, we are talking about royalties. Our CEO used the term “remarkable” to describe them.

    Sentiment: Hold

CERS
6.26-0.16(-2.49%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT