I am sorry, this "LOSER " as you say is up 30% since Jan 1, 2013 and if traded near its peers should be at 64 per share. Live in the present and future - the past is gone. And remember - had not the government bailed this company out ( the government made a smart return on its investment ) many people would be in breadlines. Obviously you have no idea how close we were to being Kazakstan.
I am all over this play, construction is making inroads to coming back - we need infrastructure so badly and the economy is recovering albeit slowly ( which is OK by me ) - Yellin will not risk the small uptick construction, its getting people back to work and allows the Fed to start looking at supply vs. demand metrics - no tightening til mid summer 2014 at the earliest. CX down 2 bucks from high - This is 14 buck stock by May. PHM is another 10% gainer by May, winter and spring orders has always driven summer construction - If raw materials are up, thats a superior bullish indicator. Note that VMC and MLM are small players in this space compared to CX - CX will take the margin hit to gain on the top line
I think you are spot on, alot of froth the last couple of weeks, BX always offers another opportunity to get back in - I will be looking at 25.80 tomorrow to get back in, nice retracement - I got out at 26.10 when this thing went nuts 2 weeks ago - wanted to position myself for AIG earnings tonite. I have been playing that trade the last 3 quarters, I am happy - Full Disclosure: I am not by far the smartest guy in the neighborhood and falling into that strategy was purely luck, but these are 2 can't miss stocks - BX has the fundamentals and a business plan that can make this company the next Berkshire/Hathaway, the larger they get though they will need to adopt a buy and hold strategy with a percentage of their holdings not unlike Berkshire. BX bought when everyone else was running for the door, they caught the falling knife but it can't go on forever with the same strategy. we can't have economic tsunamis every 5 years
Wow, all the way to 25.97 this morning.
Even the founder of BX is selling shares
Tell me again why the same rules don't apply, it must be those damn "Mainstream Investors" ?
Do us all a favor, because you may be really hurting some people that read this board that can't afford to be hurt, please leave.
First note that it is 2:54 PM and the price = 26.31, and it has been lower than that today
Next, note the institutional ownership as of 9/30/2013, latest info available
approx 49.5 mil shares bought as opposed to approx 63 mil shares sold.
Please just go away
New Positions: 55 11,067,506
Increased Positions: 161 38,552,006
Decreased Positions: 122 59,460,487
Holders With Activity: 283 98,012,493
Sold Out Positions: 28 3,495,339
The other thing most traders do not understand - even if AIG is buying back shares, it doesn´t mean that the certificates are retired and out of circulation, the float hasn´t been reduced. They need these buybacks to be able to offer options to their management, can´t promise employees stock options unless you own the stock !
I got out at 26 for a 19.2 % gain - after the last 4 earnings BX has taken at least a 1 point hit within a month - you will be able to buy back in at 25.25 or less by mid November. Will play GS and AIG til then.
The run up to 25 was a unexpected gift, unloaded 1/3 of my position at 24.93 - this was a move on the QE news. Will be able to buy back at 24 or little less before run up to earnings. Would suspect 25.30 plus by earnings and here is the trade - sell into earnings, screw the dividend - you will be able to buy all back at a dollar or more cheaper soon after earnings - check the chart for the last 4 earnings dates. Hilton IPO still 6 months away - over exhuberance can be used to your advantage here