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LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. Message Board

dkwilk 66 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 9:22 AM Member since: Dec 22, 1997
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  • dkwilk dkwilk Dec 31, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Jerry . Thanks for furnishing the Article.. Many people would have Missed this if you had not reposted..don

  • dkwilk dkwilk Dec 31, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    You Know that except for CLR , the rest of the Bakken drillers are hedged approx. 60 Odd % of production for most of 2015.and a lot of these at approx. Mid $ 80's.
    the number of rigs drilling is still 175 or so..
    The Bulls eye for Max production is Watford City, if you draw 20 mile circle..the production falls off out side the circle..
    The Fracc sand intake is Really dropping,, I have a Brother-in-law who is in freight dispatching, and works out of Fairmont MN.. up to 2 months ago, he and his firm were getting approx. 200 semi loads of fracc sand a day into ND, and NE Colorado.. this has dropped to like 20. I saw him and talked to him over Christmas in MN..
    If the well is drilled but not producing , it is still HBP for at least 1 year, so why get in a hurry to fracc a well when prices suck..
    I have not heard any concrete rumors, but I would bet the workers in the service Industries will be asked to take a pay cut..probably 20 %. This is where it started in 2008/2009 oil price crash.
    Do not bet the farm that bruce will close the blog, but it may go almost private, so if you are getting in you should be ok , or else e-mail bruce..
    I see OKE took a big Kick so about 1o days ago or so I bought some more..
    This mess with MDU in the Paradox and the #$%$ enviro rats is worse then the Bakken acreage.. If the Bakken would have been Fed land , it would have never been drilled..
    Personally I am surprised that the MDU stock price has remained as high as it has..
    I know you read a lot of papers, so look at the Williston , Minot, and Dickinson paper for local news.
    In my opinion if Interest rates on 10 yr T go to 4.5 % and MDU is still doing the mdu mo-jo it is a High teen Stock in price...
    But Wait, tomorrow is the HUGE mdu Dividend... WhoPpeeeeeeeeee..

  • Jerry , Bruce posted this on his blog today.
    American Eagle: We're Outta Here -- December 31, 2014

    American Eagle Energy announces an operations update and production guidance; has suspended its 2015 operated drilling budget and does not anticipate resuming drilling operations until crude oil prices improve:
    •The Company recently monetized all of its crude oil hedge positions for December 2014 through December 2015, generating proceeds of $13 mln. The hedges represented approximately 414,000 barrels of oil at an average price of $89.59 per barrel. Proceeds will be used to improve American Eagle's liquidity position.
    •The co notes it has no outstanding indebtedness on its senior secured revolving credit facility that had an initial borrowing base of up to $60 mln as of August 27, 2014. Effective December 24, 2014, the borrowing base was reduced to zero.
    •The co notes that given current crude oil prices, American Eagle has suspended its 2015 operated drilling budget and does not anticipate resuming drilling operations until crude oil prices improve.
    • The Company expects to conduct completion operations in the first quarter of 2015 on two gross (1.9 net) wells (Byron 4-4 and Shelley Lynn 4-4N) that were drilled during the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2014. These operations are estimated to require a capital expenditure of ~$4.5 mln in 2015

    ( This sure puts a LOW price on the Fidelity Assets in the Bakken, Powder River, and Paradox basin . don )

  • dkwilk by dkwilk Dec 31, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    has stopped drilling until oil prices firm.. this is a WSJ article.. just google this

    American Eagle Energy Halts Drilling Plans.. don

  • dkwilk by dkwilk Dec 31, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    this is the Year end price for WTI. this will be part of equation on determining the Value of Bakken/Fidelity assets..
    U.S. Oil Prices Fall 46% This Year, Steepest Loss Since 2008

    BREAKING NEWS:

    *Nymex Crude Settles Down 85 Cents at $53.27/Barrel

    *Nymex Crude Settlement Lowest Since May 2009
    *Nymex Crude Posts 46% Annual Loss, Largest Since 2008
    *Gasoline Futures Fall 48% for Year

    *Diesel Futures Fall 40% for Year

    NEW YORK—Brent oil futures, the global benchmark, are down about 50% for the year as plentiful supplies and tepid demand have sent prices plunging since June.

  • XLU a Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF , has a yr ending P/e of 19, and a 3.24% dividend yield.
    MDU a Hodge podge of Divisions has a yr ending P/e of 14.77 % and a 3.20% dividend yield.
    So how did the yr of 2014 fare for these 2 different, But similar investments . I used a $ 9,992.00 Net of Brokerage investment at the close of the market in 2013, and a 2014 Sale of investment at the close of 2014 for comparison.
    XLU $9,992 bought 263.16 shares @ $ 37.97, these shares yielded a current cash dividend of $ 1.506 per share for a total of $ 396.31. The stock closed 2014 @ $ 47.22 X 263.16 shares = $ 12426.42 + dividend of $ 396.31 Equals $ 12,822.73.
    MDU $9,992 bought 327.07 shares @ $ 30.55, These Shares yielded a current cash dividend of $ 0.717 per share for a total of $ 227.34. MDU stock closed 2014 @ $ 23.51 X 327.07 shares =$ 7,689.42 + dividend of $227.34 equals $ 7,916.76.
    I am aware Hind site is 20-20, but a equal investment in XLU and MDU resulted in A 28.2 % gain in XLU, and a 20. 8 % LOSS in MDU for the year of 2014.
    Intelligent comments welcome. Enjoy your MDU dividend today, but do not spend it all in one place.. don

  • Reply to

    OT AMZG

    by dkwilk Dec 31, 2014 1:15 PM
    dkwilk dkwilk Jan 1, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Happy New year to you also.. we are warm today, up to 34 .. was -14 below other day.. I am glad the storm went to Denver, as we were driving back from MN .. So tomorrow we start another investing yr..could be interesting.. GLTA.. don

  • Reply to

    Severance

    by bobjones476 Dec 22, 2014 2:35 PM
    dkwilk dkwilk Jan 1, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    the Bowman ND store was built by a group from Grand forks ND. don

  • Reply to

    new year picks

    by harehau Jan 1, 2015 2:37 PM
    dkwilk dkwilk Jan 1, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    here is my post from MDU board several days ago. the first wage cut in 2008/2009 was 20 % then another 20 % about 4 months later.. but who knows.. the locals also got the wages back in approx. 1.5 yrs when oil came backup.. don

    You Know that except for CLR , the rest of the Bakken drillers are hedged approx. 60 Odd % of production for most of 2015.and a lot of these at approx. Mid $ 80's.
    the number of rigs drilling is still 175 or so..
    The Bulls eye for Max production is Watford City, if you draw 20 mile circle..the production falls off out side the circle..
    The Fracc sand intake is Really dropping,, I have a Brother-in-law who is in freight dispatching, and works out of Fairmont MN.. up to 2 months ago, he and his firm were getting approx. 200 semi loads of fracc sand a day into ND, and NE Colorado.. this has dropped to like 20. I saw him and talked to him over Christmas in MN..
    If the well is drilled but not producing , it is still HBP for at least 1 year, so why get in a hurry to fracc a well when prices suck..
    I have not heard any concrete rumors, but I would bet the workers in the service Industries will be asked to take a pay cut..probably 20 %. This is where it started in 2008/2009 oil price crash.
    Do not bet the farm that bruce will close the blog, but it may go almost private, so if you are getting in you should be ok , or else e-mail bruce..
    I see OKE took a big Kick so about 1o days ago or so I bought some more..
    This mess with MDU in the Paradox and the #$%$ enviro rats is worse then the Bakken acreage.. If the Bakken would have been Fed land , it would have never been drilled..
    Personally I am surprised that the MDU stock price has remained as high as it has..
    I know you read a lot of papers, so look at the Williston , Minot, and Dickinson paper for local news.
    In my opinion if Interest rates on 10 yr T go to 4.5 % and MDU is still doing the mdu mo-jo it is a High teen Stock in price...
    But Wait, tomorrow is the HUGE mdu Dividend... WhoPpeeeeeeeeee..

  • is $ 2.07 for Unleaded..in Bowman Nd. the price dropped .30 cents overnight. don

  • dkwilk by dkwilk Jan 5, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    Any thoughts on the Management doing a LBO on the DNR shares??? Interest rates at a low.
    don

  • is available at the Corp web page..don

  • dkwilk by dkwilk Jan 8, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    OKE is the ticker and they are a Major NG processor of NG in the Bakken. they are presenting at Goldman Sachs today, and NEW supporting PDF is available at the website. don

  • Reply to

    pagp

    by harehau Jan 8, 2015 12:44 PM
    dkwilk dkwilk Jan 8, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    what I can not understand about MDU is OKE has went into ND and built or is building 1.2 Billion cft per day of ng processing.. Mdu owns a portion of a plant with Whitting in Belfield ND..And Now mdu has backed away from this NG pipeline.. just does not make sense... don

  • Reply to

    sinking like a lead balloon

    by iodine123 Jan 9, 2015 3:06 PM
    dkwilk dkwilk Jan 9, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    could it be the debt total carried, they also have a aggressive expansion plan in ND.. don

  • either go to SA or google Richard Zeits Positions For 2015: A Bull Case For North American Natural Gas..don

  • Can anyone explain why the US treasury is not selling More 30 treasury bonds, when the 10 yr bonds come due and they have to RE-Issue debt to pay it. These rates could save the USA a lot of interest in the future..
    Today the 30 yr treasury was as low as 2.40 % ..don

  • Reply to

    OT 30 yr treasury debt

    by dkwilk Jan 14, 2015 9:42 AM
    dkwilk dkwilk Jan 14, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Unleaded gas in Bowman is $ 2.02 today. and diesel fuel is $ 2.89.. I see feed cattle are dropping in price, but still are strong .. I also read that NG article in SA..
    The Retail shopping/spending for December dropped by 0.09 %, yes 1 % does not sound like much, but if it was all in nickels it would make a hell of a pile..
    Amazon stock price has gotten smothered the last week.. I would think the Users of a lot of Diesel fuel, BNSF, Road construction, jet fuel are just smiling with glee..
    don

  • For those interested in Bakken oil wells, google ndic directors cut.
    the New edition is just out and there are 775 Bakken well waiting completion. here is a segment . don
    Comments:
    The drilling rig count dropped 3 from October to November, 7 more from November to December, and has since fallen 25 more from December to today. The number of well completions decreased from 145(final) in October to 39(preliminary) in November. Oil
    1/14/2015
    Page 2 of 4
    price is by far the biggest driver behind the slow-down. Operators report postponing completion work to avoid high initial oil production at very low prices and achieve NDIC gas capture goals. There were no major precipitation events, but there were 11 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work) and 7 days with temperatures below -10F.
    Over 95% of drilling still targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations.
    The drillers far outpaced completion crews in November. At the end of November there were about 775 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 125.
    Crude oil take away capacity is expected to remain adequate as long as rail deliveries to coastal refineries keep growing.
    Rig count in the Williston Basin is falling rapidly. Utilization rate for rigs capable of 20,000+ feet is currently about 80%, and for shallow well rigs (7,000 feet or less) about 50%.

  • dkwilk by dkwilk Jan 15, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    Does anyone have idea's or opinions on increased business with farm equipment in Cuba. I realize that Congress has work to do before trade can go forth 100 %.. don

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