BG: A couple of interesting takeaways from this: (i) I sent a mail to investor relations yesterday afternoon with a copy of the ChinaBio article, requesting a response - I appreciate that they can't just respond back to me (FD13) but it was nice to see a reaffirmation of guidance - thanks to the the person who posted the article yesterday - it may be that SCLN was going to reaffirm anyways and it was just coincidence (ii) SCLN bought back all the shares sometime between October and Jan 2nd - apprx 1.3 mm shares I would guesstimate - given the potential payout to their new partners and the high share price, we may not see any addt'l share repurchase funds for awhile.
Thanks - I saw that one when I googled the topic earlier today - appreciate the info.
Per a post I made about 1 month ago, I stated that smart money was making sure of having dry powder to pick up the inevitable cheap shares being offered during the tax loss selling. I picked up 3000 shares today in the 13.50 range and have addt'l funds ready for another 2,000 to 3,000 if we get to the 12 or lower range.
Lets see come May / June of next year where we are - I have 4500 shares at 12.30'ish.
Shouldn't we go up 4% today. Looking at historical prices for the past few months, thats the way its worked, altho there have been a few days where we only go up or down a few pennies. As long as we keep making higher highs.....
hmmmmm.......pardon me while I look up OBV.......right, On Balance Volume. I have to admit that given the likley absence of external factors influencing the stock, that vol was drying up and momentum traders would disappear. I was shocked that the stock moved up 30 cents yesterday. So what is OBV telling you that made you buy at $8.46 - I guess its that volume on up days is exceeding volume on low days?
The stock feels heavy though - we'll see what happens over the next month or so, assuming no material news is forthcoming. If the day traders see there's no volatility, they will likely play elsewhere, and I believe they've been responsible for at least some portion of the share price rise over the past few months. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them try to run it the other way.
BG - appreciate your reply; playing devils advocate I would suggest that a PE of 15 is alot for a company with a mature drug (Z) that needs to prove it can grow sales at 15% or more without the hiccups that have historically befallen this company. PE of 20 is excessive, I believe. I still don't get the math behind the $1.00 earnings staement that was made by CFO. No new products will add materially to bottom line for at least 3 quarters and likely longer. I'm hoping that sales can grow this quarter (next quarter is always thier worst because of Chines New Year). For the time being I'm hanging on to my 30,000 remaining shares but will be tempted to lighten up again if we cross $9.00. Thanks again for your response - it helps me level set what I'm trying to get out of this investment after all these years.
The question I'd like to ask you is why do you think SCLN will rise from $8.50 to $12 by next summer - what can you point to that will drive that price rise?
There is an option settlement 11/22 - I think there were about 350 contracts around $7.50 if I recall - might be related to that
Hamed Khorasand, at BWS Financial, reduced his target to $8 about a week ago and changed from Buy to Hold; Aegis is at $10. Those are the only two analysts following the stock.
Although this was directed at B7, I hope you don't mind that I cut in - I haven't had a chance to listen to the call from yesterday - was there anything remarkable about it? Hope to listen to it today. Last I heard from quarterly call was that they still had $10mm for share repurchase left, so they only used 2mm between 9/3 and 9/30 when they last reported.
BTW - I've been meaning to ask, there was an abbiejordan who used to post on the HLIT board around 2001 /2002 - - was that you? I think it was HLIT.
Rac0cker - hmmmmmmmm. A plausible explanation for whats been going on. I appreciate you taking the time to lay it out. The thing I couldn't get my head around for the last month is that the share price doesn't seem to be warranted - that its being kept artificially high. I didn't understand the strategy of the day traders. Buyers need Sellers and Sellers need Buyers - it sound simple but for the strategy to work, day traders need a dupe somewhere along the line. Take Mondays action at the close. I can understand that there were sellers at these lofty prices but who were the buyers and what was their horizon for holding shares? The reason I was looking for some technical analysis was that I was thinking of unloading another 10,000 shares but I want to do it into the froth, so to speak. Thanks again.