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Primo Water Corporation Message Board

dldcocoa 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 13, 2015 12:23 PM Member since: May 20, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Afrezza vs Novolog vs Humalog

    by kimi_held Jun 13, 2015 4:44 AM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa Jun 13, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    The piece of the puzzle is the fact the biggest pharmacy chains in the country like CVS, Walgreen etc. DO NOT report in Symphony. How many scripts for Afrezza have the biggest chains written? Nobody knows but it has to be significant. How many patients are WAITING to get scripts but don't have them yet? THAT is the most important number but immeasurable today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Script count.

    by theninjaprophet Jun 11, 2015 10:08 PM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa Jun 12, 2015 2:52 AM Flag

    People who believe the "300 or so" script count numbers are failing to grasp some salient facts about the prescription process. First of all, the scripts everyone is fixated upon are from the Symphony database. This only includes pharmacies linked to that database and EXCLUDE the major chains such as CVS, Walgreen, Walmart, Giant stores and many others who do not report prescriptions, period. Thus the biggest part of prescriptions will NEVER show up in Symphony. Furthermore, the data is impossibly out of date since it only tracks those prescriptions actually filled at the pharmacy as of a specific point in time. One of the early issues with Afrezza has been the simple fact most patients cannot get in on Day 1 to see their prescribing doctor. Many are reporting 6 weeks or better wait just to get the initial appointment, then another couple of weeks after that for the FEV1 test, insurance clearance and finally picking up the actual prescription where it is captured in the Symphony data. With an 8 week delay factor (which happens to agree with management statements they are about 8 weeks behind where they had expected to be) even a patient entering the "pipeline" process on April 1st still would not have picked up a Symphony-captured prescription that would be captured in the database as of the last reporting date of 5/29. Thus the script counts in these early months are completely irrelevant since the bulk of the data is at a minimum not only 8 weeks old or more but also exclude the larger percent that is not captured ANYWHERE.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dldcocoa dldcocoa Jun 7, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    Gamechanger. Afrezza is cool like the I-phone was cool. Home run all the way - this will soon be showing scripts in the thousands - how many more of those are already in the works as we speak. Minimum 8 week delay seems to be the norm - current script count doesn't even have any April users, probably even very few March users - giant wave is building and will hit just in time for DTC. Tsunami engulfing, shorts-obliterating pattern detected!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A cure?

    by dldcocoa Jun 4, 2015 8:26 PM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa Jun 4, 2015 10:55 PM Flag

    I remember Minimed had a slow start and it was the same talk - Wall Street downtalked it and at one point the stock was in the $2's. Al sold the company a few years later for $48 per share. Eerily familiar story with MNKD. Greater outcome expected.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dldcocoa by dldcocoa Jun 4, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    Sam Finta (one of the true Afrezza heroes!) replied in the article in Diabetes World - Reva Greenberg : "For me, Afrezza has been a cure. I am a type 1 and I live like a non-diabetic". Sam said this, and his HbA1c's verify it. He and 5 others on his blog are reporting the best A1c's EVER, in the non-diabetic range. Do these 6 patients somehow have superhuman cells that react differently to insulin than a "standard" human body? Of course not - the same biology is present in ALL human bodies. One can project with great statistical accuracy that these same results will be replicated in virtually ANY human body. This will become common knowledge as the patient base increases steadily and identical results are logged. When there are thousands of patients reporting non-diabetic HbA1c's - something that has NEVER been achieved, no matter what treatment they tried - what do you think the prescription of choice will be?

    The "market" simply has not yet grasped this. Afrezza has (and will continue to do so with statistical inevitability) given diabetics HbA1c numbers that they have never before achieved in their lives. They have used the best possible treatments available to them. Novolog, Humalog - could not do it. Afrezza DID do it. It did it without needles. It did it with greatly simplifed carb estimation. Hmm - non-diabetic readings with a greatly simplified, non-invasive delivery system - what will the choice be?

    HbA1c normalization is the Holy Grail of diabetes treatment and Afrezza has already demonstrated it can deliver that. What do you think a virtual cure for diabetes is worth?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dldcocoa by dldcocoa Jun 2, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    I think there is MUCH greater demand than the scripts currently reflect. It's pretty common knowledge now there have been delays somewhere in the 3 to 4 month range before patients get the actual prescriptions. One certainly hopes that diminishes once more docs get spirometers , insurance gets smoothed out etc. For now through at least May, when Q1 results were discussed in the call it is probably safe to say that 3 months is an average time frame for a typical patient. That means someone who began the process on March 1st would not have gotten the actual prescription until yesterday. So virtually ALL the current script numbers are and have been for the very early adopters in February with probably some few others who got streamlined treatment somehow. So June script counts are going to include Trx from the February group, then begin adding in the Nrx/Trx for the March group as the weeks roll by. If June numbers turn out big, watch out. That means uptake has begun seriously and future scripts will be even larger because by April the news was spreading fast with Sam, Amy and the other's stories. May even more so so those months will undoubtedly be better than March. Unfortunately we will have to wait til probably July to see the April results, and August for May.

    June will be the first indicator - watch those numbers since they will finally begin to give a better glimpse into actual uptake trends. Hoping to see some impressive increases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No Prognostication Needed

    by ddbikessamsara Jun 2, 2015 5:25 PM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa Jun 2, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    Nicely put!

  • Dr. Bruce Bode is considered one of the leading experts in the world on insulin delivery

    From the Atlanta Diabetes Associates website:

    "He has a strong affinity for working with children and young adults with diabetes and is considered one of the leading experts in the world on insulin delivery and glucose sensing. He is very active in clinical research on new diabetes products including pharmacological agents to prevent diabetes and control glucose and new insulins and glucose sensors.

    He is a prolific writer with over 200 articles and books in the field of diabetes discussing current and future therapies for people with diabetes. He also sits on the advisory board of many of the leading companies in the field of diabetes care and research including the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, the American Diabetes Association (ADA), and the Georgia diabetes camps."

    What would a prolific writer in the field of diabetes and insulin delivery possibly have to write about these days? Is there any new insulin product recently on the market that is demonstrating capabilities that no other insulin has ever before produced? Is there any chance that the patients reporting these results - the best they have ever experienced in their lives - are actually reporting them to this very same prolific writer? Hmmmmmm.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dldcocoa dldcocoa May 29, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    Dr. Bruce Bode is considered one of the leading experts in the world on insulin delivery

    From the Atlanta Diabetes Associates website:

    "He has a strong affinity for working with children and young adults with diabetes and is considered one of the leading experts in the world on insulin delivery and glucose sensing. He is very active in clinical research on new diabetes products including pharmacological agents to prevent diabetes and control glucose and new insulins and glucose sensors.

    He is a prolific writer with over 200 articles and books in the field of diabetes discussing current and future therapies for people with diabetes. He also sits on the advisory board of many of the leading companies in the field of diabetes care and research including the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, the American Diabetes Association (ADA), and the Georgia diabetes camps."

    How about dem apples? What do you think the chances are of Dr. Bode writing an article soon about the phenomenal results being demonstrated by a sizable group of his patients? Do you think he may be talking to his colleagues at the upcoming ADA conference in June?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's So Obvious Why Scripts Are Low!

    by promannkind May 29, 2015 11:08 AM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa May 29, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    For someone with a long term perspective this is one of the simpler investment decisions I have ever made. All the eye-popping testimonials from afrezzauser's group (thanks Sam!!!), Diabetes Mine and the others make it abundantly clear this is unlike any insulin ever before seen. It is the stark reality that simply CANNOT be ignored. These are results that will cause medical papers to be published. The FDA label will be largely irrelevant once it becomes common knowledge that Afrezza DOES in fact directly lead to significant A1c improvement. Simple as that. You cannot hold a better idea in the dark - it just takes on a life of it's own.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's So Obvious Why Scripts Are Low!

    by promannkind May 29, 2015 11:08 AM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa May 29, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    Current scripts do NOT reflect current demand. There is something around a 3 month time frame from the point one first begins the process to the point they have the prescription written. With this in mind simple logic tells you that someone beginning the process on March 1st would not even have the prescription yet. Thus the current script numbers are still from the original group of early adopters in February - why in the world would anyone expect a big increase from the same group of patients? We should see a steady ramp up beginning in mid-June as the March adopters begin entering into the script flow. From then on the April adopters start showing up in July, then the May adopters in August. THOSE are the numbers that will be much more revealing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NRX and NRX info

    by cherubspeak May 29, 2015 10:21 AM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa May 29, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    These numbers are essentially from the same group of patients - those early adopters from February. We know that there has been a normal delay of between 3 and 4 months for a patient to get the appointment, get the spirometry test, and get the insurance stuff then finally the prescription. So someone who decided March 1st they wanted to get on Affrezza in all likelihood has not even gotten the prescription yet. The script numbers are essentially meaningless at this point simply because they are just recycling the identical group of patients. It will be June before the script counts start including the patients added in March, July before they start including those added in April. The July numbers will begin to show the TRUE demand because it should have been growing significantly by April.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dldcocoa dldcocoa May 26, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    Gee, that user rating a 1 is none other than the highly regarded YMB critic Kevin mik. With typical keen wit and shrewd powers of observation, he rates "Horrible". That will go a long way toward suppressing Afrezza sales, I'm sure.

    Doctor: I think you would get some really excellent benefits by taking Afrezza at mealtimes. Let's get you started and see how things progress, OK?

    Patient: But Doctor, Kevin mik said this stuff is horrible! I don't feel comfortable taking the risk!

    Doctor: Oh, yes - I see that now. Well, too bad, I guess it's more needles and less control for you. Dang, I wish I knew medicine like Kevin!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Annual rev per script?

    by biffonsabbatical May 26, 2015 11:36 AM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa May 26, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    MNKD gets 35% of the PROFITS, not revenues. We don't yet know what the margins are going to be so very hard to say what the bottom line will be. Probably safe to say there is plenty of upside to be had in the stock if things go well but extremely difficult to model anything yet. TS deals will change the outlook - lots more than just Afrezza is going to be happening in the coming years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dldcocoa dldcocoa May 23, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    I'd rather be long, thank you very much. Here we are with all the REAL hurdles overcome. FDA approval, global partnership, nothing but glowing reviews of the product, medical articles and presentations referencing superior PK qualities, production up and running with 100% efficiency, additional TS applications in the pipeline - and the stock is sitting near the all time lows? It's really laughable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dldcocoa dldcocoa May 7, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Anybody notice the orange cartridges in the video? That must be the new 12u cartridges since the 4 and 8 are blue and green. It#$%$ the news now with no official advertising yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We know that the unique aspect of Afrezza over all others is it's monomer structure, which is the same structure as natural insulin manufactured by a healthy human pancreas. This is why Afrezza is so effective and why early users are reporting such exceptional results - their bodies are simply responding to this monomer insulin like any human body would. It is simply a biological imperative. As such, one has to expect a similar outcome for any patient who begins treatment with Afrezza. All other prandial insulins are hexomer molecules, which a) take much longer for the body to break down and actually use - thus the significantly longer time to peak, and b) much longer to finally exit the bloodstream - thus the significantly longer tail with associated hypos etc.
    Add to this biological reality the convenience factor, the no-needle factor (instead of looking for a new place to poke yourself every time PLUS the very real psychological factor that sticking a needle into your body means something is wrong) and it adds up to a truly compelling tilt toward Afrezza.

    Afrezza is simply a Lamborghini competing against the minivans of the prandial insulin world. It is a virtual biological certainty that the overwhelming majority of patients who try Afrezza are going to experience control like they have never had. That's not hype - just basic biology. The results should be almost exponential patient demand once the ball really gets rolling. Very hard to predict actual numbers by quarter at this early stage but the trend has to be snowballing as more and more patients reap the benefits and convert, tell others, , then what happens when advertising begins in a serious way?-

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Pure statistics dictates that the experiences being reported by Sam and the other early adopters MUST apply to anyone using Afrezza. The human body HAS to react to a natural monomer insulin in this manner, it cannot do otherwise because that is how it is programmed.

    With zero advertising, already MNKD has added 2 more production lines. Clearly the "disappointing" sales are causing the increased production. There have to be hundreds of users by now who are having the same experiences of Sam and the other bloggers. They may not be blogging about it but they will be talking to their doctors and wanting more. What happens when the REAL launch begins and this statistically inevitable superior outcome becomes the norm? It's just a numbers exercise - get the product to as many patients as possible, who will have the same experience, then it keeps snowballing from there.

    Statistics is simple math - a relevant sample can be extrapolated to the larger population with great accuracy. We are seeing the beginning of that right now. Early in the game but nowhere near the end game.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sam's blog on twitter... says it all

    by gamblerjag May 3, 2015 5:03 PM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa May 3, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    You have to realize that most - if not ALL users are having this same sort of experience - it is a statistical impossibility for this NOT to be so. The human body HAS to react to a natural monomer insulin in this manner. There have to be hundreds of patients by now who have tried it and are seeing the benefits. Word of mouth HAS to be spreading. They may not be blogging about it but they most certainly would be talking about it - to their doctors, families, fellow patients etc.

    All of this without a single advertisement so far, and already MNKD has added 2 more production lines. The Wall Street crooks can scream all they want about a mere 6 weeks of sales "disappointing" them (boo hoo, poor disappointed little schoolboys). They are staring an inevitable outcome in the face and they will be proven embarrassingly wrong soon enough.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Afrezza now listed on CVS website

    by dldcocoa May 1, 2015 1:08 PM
    dldcocoa dldcocoa May 2, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    Doing a little research I found that CVS is THE largest prescription filler in the nation with 22% of all prescriptions nationally going through either the retail stores or the online system. Now let's wait for someone to badmouth the fact that Afrezza is listed with the biggest prescription filler in the country.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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