Is HP going under $50 during the first half of 2015?
Is $50 a good buy point, assuming it gets that low?
Is HP a drilling survivor in this niche?
I can see low oil prices throughout some/much/all of 2015. However, by sometime during 2016 oil prices will likely be north of $80, and could be a lot higher.
buckeye, I haven't been following CRY as of late. One of your overall updates would be appreciated. My gut tells me the only really big play CRY has going is PerClot, and I have no way of knowing how this intersects with BCR's patent. I'm glad to see new management coming in. I hope SA let's the new CEO really start to run the company. The real question in my mind is not earnings for this year, or next; but, whether CRY can pull off a major product like PerClot.
We are assigning an Underperform Rating to the common stock and establishing a one-year price target of $5.00. We are assigning SELL ratings to select senior notes…While Peabody has a stellar reputation and a strong management team, in our view, its shares and senior notes likely will remain under pressure from rising leverage and instability in global coal markets. The shares currently are valued at about 12.4x EV/EBITDA, and could rise to 14.0x if coking coal were to settle at $110/t in the short-term, near where current spot prices are indicated. Our Underperform rating factors in a view that coking coal could settle in the $140-150/t range long-term and the shares should trade at 6.0x-7.0x normalized EBITDA. Our SELL rating on the senior notes is a function of high 7.4x net leverage that could rise to 8.4x with a similar short-term drop in coking coal, also causing free cash flow to turn negative, which would necessitate using revolver capacity or secured debt to cover pending maturities. We are most negative on longer-dated notes the market will realize would be layered with secured debt over time. Like more distressed coal producers (Walter Energy, Alpha Natural Resources, Arch Coal), Peabody’s troubles stem from the debt-financed acquisition of coking coal assets in the 2011 time period when it issued $4bn of debt to purchase Macarthur Coal.