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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

dlhild 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 15, 2014 1:20 PM Member since: Dec 3, 2009
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  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Dec 15, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    Does this company deserve to be knocked down this much based upon declining oil prices? Thouhgts?

  • Reply to

    Pat Makin very impressive!

    by thebuckeye777 Oct 28, 2014 10:43 AM
    dlhild@ymail.com dlhild Nov 17, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    buckeye, I haven't been following CRY as of late. One of your overall updates would be appreciated. My gut tells me the only really big play CRY has going is PerClot, and I have no way of knowing how this intersects with BCR's patent. I'm glad to see new management coming in. I hope SA let's the new CEO really start to run the company. The real question in my mind is not earnings for this year, or next; but, whether CRY can pull off a major product like PerClot.

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Oct 20, 2014 11:58 PM Flag

    Which is the better investment? What is the difference between the two companies?

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Oct 20, 2014 11:56 PM Flag

    Which is the better investment? What is the difference between the companies?

  • Reply to

    BTU v. KOL

    by resp17zx Oct 20, 2014 2:36 PM
    dlhild@ymail.com dlhild Oct 20, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    It is rather like distinguishing between a "sinker" and a "floater".

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Oct 20, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Why in the world did the Nikkei jump 578 overnight? BOJ buying all the stock? More Japanese manipulation? Any thoughts?

  • We are assigning an Underperform Rating to the common stock and establishing a one-year price target of $5.00. We are assigning SELL ratings to select senior notes…While Peabody has a stellar reputation and a strong management team, in our view, its shares and senior notes likely will remain under pressure from rising leverage and instability in global coal markets. The shares currently are valued at about 12.4x EV/EBITDA, and could rise to 14.0x if coking coal were to settle at $110/t in the short-term, near where current spot prices are indicated. Our Underperform rating factors in a view that coking coal could settle in the $140-150/t range long-term and the shares should trade at 6.0x-7.0x normalized EBITDA. Our SELL rating on the senior notes is a function of high 7.4x net leverage that could rise to 8.4x with a similar short-term drop in coking coal, also causing free cash flow to turn negative, which would necessitate using revolver capacity or secured debt to cover pending maturities. We are most negative on longer-dated notes the market will realize would be layered with secured debt over time. Like more distressed coal producers (Walter Energy, Alpha Natural Resources, Arch Coal), Peabody’s troubles stem from the debt-financed acquisition of coking coal assets in the 2011 time period when it issued $4bn of debt to purchase Macarthur Coal.

  • Reply to

    This is a $30 stock

    by stockmeisterl03 Jul 30, 2014 11:42 AM
    dlhild@ymail.com dlhild Jul 30, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    Yes, $30 after a 2:1 reverse split. Why not make it a $60 stock after a 4:1 reverse split?

    Coal prices are lower this week than last week. Volumes are likely the same as last week. Hence, cash flow is likely flat to down this week. Natural gas is presently $3.81 per Mcf, meaning that coal's share of the market in the USA is likely to continue to shrink. This stock will fall below $10 before it sees $30. Wait and buy lower. Perhaps BTU is the best horse at the glue factory, but it's still at the glue factory.

    Also, the Fed just dropped its asset purchases to $25 billion per month. Next month will be the first time since they started their tapper that asset purchase amounts of $300 billion annualized ($25 times 12 - $300) drops below the projected deficit of around $450 billion. This means that next month, August, will be the the first month that Fed policy is mildly contractionary. Through July, their policy has been expansionary. Of course one never knows what they are doing non transparently. After stopping the previous QE's the markets softened. If they tapper down to zero, why would markets head south again.

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Jul 16, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Utilities in the U.S. are scrambling for coal, on pace to increase imports 26 percent this year, as railroad bottlenecks slow deliveries and electricity demand climbs with an improving economy. Russia, the world’s third-largest exporter of the fuel, will boost shipments 3.9 percent to 106 million metric tons this year, IHS Energy forecasts, part of President Vladimir Putin’s plan to expand Russia’s role in the global coal market.
    “Everyone’s aware that a number of plants have low stockpiles, so you hear Russian coal and they say, ‘Oh wow, people must really be desperate,’” James Stevenson, Houston-based director of North American coal at IHS, said in a July 8 telephone interview.
    The Russian fuel appeals to power producers because it emits less sulfur than other coals, making it easier to comply with environmental rules, and has a high heat content, meaning it can produce more power per measure of fuel, Stevenson said.
    “If you are on the Atlantic Coast, you have a chance to buy imported coal,” Stevenson said. “If you’re a utility you have to act now and throughout the second half of the year in case there’s a colder winter than last year.”

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Jul 11, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    Yet there is no discussion here. Humm.

  • Reply to

    Any view on the CEO announcement?

    by darv222 Jul 10, 2014 2:02 PM
    dlhild@ymail.com dlhild Jul 11, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    I agree with poorhouse that this was a positive change. I'm guessing Jon Salveson played a role in this happening. I suspect one thing could become a problem though. SA is a 100% control freak, like a total control freak. The company is his baby and his life. Can he REALLY step back and let Pat Mackin (PM) take control? I don't know, but this will be an interesting dynamic to watch as we go forward in time. If SA and PM can in fact work well together, they would be a powerful force. Also, it had always appeared to me that DAL was perhaps being groomed for the CEO role, so I wonder how that will play out. Since DAL is more a finance person, the selection of PM was a good one in my opinion. Another plus is that prior to this it was my view that CRY's relationship with MDT was probably very poor, because of SA's personality..just my opinion obviously. Now though, CRY's relationship with MDT is likely a good one. The odds of a buy-out just went up. Probably not right away, but a year or two out CRY may well have some attractive buy-out characteristics. I think too that this just made the buckeye 3-5 game plan even better.

    Conclusion: Definitely a positive development. If SA and PM can work well together, then this will likely prove to be super positive. Also, it was time for new blood to evaluate CRY's product line and start making needed changes. Simply put, it was just time for some fresh blood at CRY.

  • Presently there is way to much capacity, so prices are in the tank. Global growth is slow, and perhaps slowing, so volumes are not going to increase any time soon. Nattie gas price at Henry Hub is at the very low price of $4.22/Mcf. This makes it hard for coal to effectively compete in the US. Coal exporting capacity on the west coast is still limited. BTU did extend their debt payment schedule, so they have some breathing room for the moment. However, for another 6-18 months coal is not likely to do well. While I'm long a few shares, I would not be a serious BTU buyer above $12/share. It may even hit single digits before sufficient coal capacity is taken off line. Also, if the Fed is tapering $35B per month and sounding like they are going to taper to zero, interest rates may bump up and growth slow even further. If on the other hand they quit tapering, then they are admitting the economy is not growing very much and that is bad for coal volumes. No reason to buy BTU to buy anytime soon at the current price. If you ant to read an interesting reflective blog on energy and the economy google "our finite world". Just my simple opinion.

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Jun 20, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    04/15/2015 - 2.375% note is due - $267,000,000

    08/15/2015 - 3.25% note is due - $513,000,000

    Do you hear the BIG sucking sound of bankruptcy...?

SLW
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