Global growth is slowing. China has downshifted to 3% growth, not the old 7%-10% tossed around. Commodities are still trending down. I think it will be several months before it comes back. IMO Australia is not very forward thinking. Wait a few months and see if commodity prices strengthen.
Does anyone know about how much physical already mined exists presently?
HOLE = MINE (iron, coal, etc.)
HOUSE = Overvalued real estate
Housing values make/made many Australians feel wealth. But this can change for the worse and for a long time. Two big reasons contributed to high housing values: the commodity boom and wealthy Asians parking money outside of their country of residence. Commodity boom is now a long term bust, as there is excess global capacity for for these commodities; and, because the global economy overall is slowing down.This is actual worse than it now seems, because our entire economic model is dependent on growth. We are approaching, probably in less than 10 years, a time when the growth model fails: falling productivity, unfavorable demographics, corporate ethics (VW and buybacks), diminishing returns across the commodity sectors general and for oil specifically, and because the entire system is burdened with excessive debt and in particular nonproductive debt (houses, vacations, cars, etc.) because they don't produce future output and destructive debt (almost all government debt (military, social security, medicare, etc.) again because it does not produce future production. All companies hit diminishing returns when they become gigantic, so why doesn't the same apply to the global economy or contry specific economies. Canada, same story. Brazil same story. Latin America generally same story. Emerging markets generally same story. OECD countries too much and growing nonproductive debt. Everybody everywhere lacks political will, because it would be terrible to throttle this thing back and devise a sustainable model. Ultimately, WW III ?
EWA = down ~30% in past 52 weeks.
EWC = down ~30% in past 52 weeks.
EWT = down ~25% in past 52 weeks.
EWY = down ~25% in past 52 weeks.
EWZ = down ~58% in past 52 weeks, on its way down to ~65%
EEM = down ~28% in past 52 weeks.
HOLES everywhere, including the global economy.
Is HP going under $50 during the first half of 2015?
Is $50 a good buy point, assuming it gets that low?
Is HP a drilling survivor in this niche?
I can see low oil prices throughout some/much/all of 2015. However, by sometime during 2016 oil prices will likely be north of $80, and could be a lot higher.
buckeye, I haven't been following CRY as of late. One of your overall updates would be appreciated. My gut tells me the only really big play CRY has going is PerClot, and I have no way of knowing how this intersects with BCR's patent. I'm glad to see new management coming in. I hope SA let's the new CEO really start to run the company. The real question in my mind is not earnings for this year, or next; but, whether CRY can pull off a major product like PerClot.
We are assigning an Underperform Rating to the common stock and establishing a one-year price target of $5.00. We are assigning SELL ratings to select senior notes…While Peabody has a stellar reputation and a strong management team, in our view, its shares and senior notes likely will remain under pressure from rising leverage and instability in global coal markets. The shares currently are valued at about 12.4x EV/EBITDA, and could rise to 14.0x if coking coal were to settle at $110/t in the short-term, near where current spot prices are indicated. Our Underperform rating factors in a view that coking coal could settle in the $140-150/t range long-term and the shares should trade at 6.0x-7.0x normalized EBITDA. Our SELL rating on the senior notes is a function of high 7.4x net leverage that could rise to 8.4x with a similar short-term drop in coking coal, also causing free cash flow to turn negative, which would necessitate using revolver capacity or secured debt to cover pending maturities. We are most negative on longer-dated notes the market will realize would be layered with secured debt over time. Like more distressed coal producers (Walter Energy, Alpha Natural Resources, Arch Coal), Peabody’s troubles stem from the debt-financed acquisition of coking coal assets in the 2011 time period when it issued $4bn of debt to purchase Macarthur Coal.
Yes, $30 after a 2:1 reverse split. Why not make it a $60 stock after a 4:1 reverse split?
Coal prices are lower this week than last week. Volumes are likely the same as last week. Hence, cash flow is likely flat to down this week. Natural gas is presently $3.81 per Mcf, meaning that coal's share of the market in the USA is likely to continue to shrink. This stock will fall below $10 before it sees $30. Wait and buy lower. Perhaps BTU is the best horse at the glue factory, but it's still at the glue factory.
Also, the Fed just dropped its asset purchases to $25 billion per month. Next month will be the first time since they started their tapper that asset purchase amounts of $300 billion annualized ($25 times 12 - $300) drops below the projected deficit of around $450 billion. This means that next month, August, will be the the first month that Fed policy is mildly contractionary. Through July, their policy has been expansionary. Of course one never knows what they are doing non transparently. After stopping the previous QE's the markets softened. If they tapper down to zero, why would markets head south again.
Utilities in the U.S. are scrambling for coal, on pace to increase imports 26 percent this year, as railroad bottlenecks slow deliveries and electricity demand climbs with an improving economy. Russia, the world’s third-largest exporter of the fuel, will boost shipments 3.9 percent to 106 million metric tons this year, IHS Energy forecasts, part of President Vladimir Putin’s plan to expand Russia’s role in the global coal market.
“Everyone’s aware that a number of plants have low stockpiles, so you hear Russian coal and they say, ‘Oh wow, people must really be desperate,’” James Stevenson, Houston-based director of North American coal at IHS, said in a July 8 telephone interview.
The Russian fuel appeals to power producers because it emits less sulfur than other coals, making it easier to comply with environmental rules, and has a high heat content, meaning it can produce more power per measure of fuel, Stevenson said.
“If you are on the Atlantic Coast, you have a chance to buy imported coal,” Stevenson said. “If you’re a utility you have to act now and throughout the second half of the year in case there’s a colder winter than last year.”
I agree with poorhouse that this was a positive change. I'm guessing Jon Salveson played a role in this happening. I suspect one thing could become a problem though. SA is a 100% control freak, like a total control freak. The company is his baby and his life. Can he REALLY step back and let Pat Mackin (PM) take control? I don't know, but this will be an interesting dynamic to watch as we go forward in time. If SA and PM can in fact work well together, they would be a powerful force. Also, it had always appeared to me that DAL was perhaps being groomed for the CEO role, so I wonder how that will play out. Since DAL is more a finance person, the selection of PM was a good one in my opinion. Another plus is that prior to this it was my view that CRY's relationship with MDT was probably very poor, because of SA's personality..just my opinion obviously. Now though, CRY's relationship with MDT is likely a good one. The odds of a buy-out just went up. Probably not right away, but a year or two out CRY may well have some attractive buy-out characteristics. I think too that this just made the buckeye 3-5 game plan even better.
Conclusion: Definitely a positive development. If SA and PM can work well together, then this will likely prove to be super positive. Also, it was time for new blood to evaluate CRY's product line and start making needed changes. Simply put, it was just time for some fresh blood at CRY.
Presently there is way to much capacity, so prices are in the tank. Global growth is slow, and perhaps slowing, so volumes are not going to increase any time soon. Nattie gas price at Henry Hub is at the very low price of $4.22/Mcf. This makes it hard for coal to effectively compete in the US. Coal exporting capacity on the west coast is still limited. BTU did extend their debt payment schedule, so they have some breathing room for the moment. However, for another 6-18 months coal is not likely to do well. While I'm long a few shares, I would not be a serious BTU buyer above $12/share. It may even hit single digits before sufficient coal capacity is taken off line. Also, if the Fed is tapering $35B per month and sounding like they are going to taper to zero, interest rates may bump up and growth slow even further. If on the other hand they quit tapering, then they are admitting the economy is not growing very much and that is bad for coal volumes. No reason to buy BTU to buy anytime soon at the current price. If you ant to read an interesting reflective blog on energy and the economy google "our finite world". Just my simple opinion.