It looks to me like they need to rollover the $418 million term loan and the $912 million loan facility loan before June 18, 2015. I'm assuming this will happen, but does anyone know more about this?
THERMO prices in the tank. MET prices at the very bottom of the tank. Excess capacity all over the globe. BTU has approximately $5.8 billion in L-T debt. China appearing to slow down. Where's salvation going to come from? I think BTU will survive because their debt is staggered and first BIG debt payment becomes due Nov. 2016, so they have some breathing room time left. IMO I just think commodities are still on the down swing, so BTU is headed lower before it goes higher.
I admit I'm clueless on this subject. Here's a bit of my clueless thinking, for what it is worth. There are two basic silver production costs.
The first level production cost is the by-product production cost. About 70% of annual silver production is as a by-product of copper, gold, and other non-primary silver producers. These companies fully recover their costs from their primary products. These companies look at how much it costs to produce silver from their pile of leftover ore. For these companies I'm quite convinced that their cost to produce is less than $10/ounce.
The second level of production is from primary silver producers (CDE, PAAS, etc.). These companies likely have an "all in" cost somewhere north of $20/ounce. The actual cost varies widely from mine to mine and from company to company. So it seems to me that at some level the most efficient marginal producers more or less set a logical long term floor for the price of silver.
Of course there is a lot of silver floating around, because a lot of people own some silver at some level.
Also, it is worth noting that at another level silver is just a shiny rock. If I own this shiny rock, I'm hoping to sell it to a greater fool who will pay even more for my shiny rock. No income, unless you sell covered call options.
Question: Why hasn't someone with a spare billion or two manipulated this market by locking up much of the physical?
Has the FDA “warning letter” issues been resolved?
For Q1, Q2, and Q3 the gross profit percentage was 65.5%, 64.2%, and 64.2%, respectively. For Q4 the gross profit margin fell to 62.8%. So 75 year old SA can spin any yarn he wishes, the fact remains that the gross profit margin appears to be at a rather depressed level.
On the plus side, the effective tax rate of 31% was quite low. Also, it is likely that CRY will receive close to $8.4 million (pre-tax) from Medafor escrow and milestone payments (small amount in 2014,with bulk being paid in 2015).
SA can talk all he wants about PerClot this and PerClot that, but BCR holds a patent that may prove to be an obstacle to CRY selling PerClot in the US. The outcome here is not yet known, but it does remain a significant risk that CRY shareholders should be aware of and understand. If PerClot can’t be sold into the US market without infringing BCR’s patent, foreign sales/profit will never likely be material in amount. Also, BCR has a second generation product that they will probably submit to the FDA soon too. Note SA likes to talk about the large potential market size ($780m US plus $780n OUS). Story telling is one thing, what happens may be something different.
BioGlue seems to still be doing well. In fact BioGlue may be CRY’s only profitable cost center. BioGlue is off patent. It is possible that Tenaxis Medical could surface as a significant competitor. Check out their website.
Do your own due diligence.
I’m guessing part of the reason for the stock’s current price level is that CRY can support the price with buying back some stock. Given their normal cash flow augmented by the proceeds from CRB’s Medafor stock purchase they are in a strong position to support the stock price at some level, perhaps above $9.00.
Has CRY cleared up their FDA "warning letter" issues?
I could find no FDA information CRY has started PerClot clinical trials. Also, I could find no FDA information that CRB has started any new clinical trials on a Arista second generation product. I think in due course both CRY and CRB will be doing new clinical in this area. Remember that CRB holds a related patent. Note that CRY now mentions the patent risk in some of their releases.
To date I can find no evidence that Tenaxis has made any sort of aggressive marketing effort. Hence, this potential threat to BioGlue has not surfaced, not yet anyway. CRY shareholders should be aware of this risk.
Central banks are artificially depressing interest rates. This depresses the risk free rate. This means that everything whose price is based upon the risk free rate is miss priced (bonds, equities, some real estate, art, farmland, etc.). This is contributing to high equities generally. This is likely contributing somewhat to CRY's current valuation. It is possible that if the Fed continues the "taper", valuations generally may be negatively affected.
Coal companies need higher prices. MET coal is in the tank, and THERMO coal prices aren't good either. Pricing will improve only when capacity shrinks. Capacity will shrink a tiny amount when JRCC files for bankruptcy. ANR may follow JRCC into bankruptcy, unless they do a quick shuffle and refinance $288 million in debentures coming due 04/15/15 (15 months). This needs to be immediately followed by the refinancing of $536 million in debentures on 08/01/2015(19 months). Also, if ANR is lucky enough to refinace, the rate will probably be at close to 10%. That will whack cash flow some more. If ANR gets pushed into bankruptcy, capacity would probably shrink enough to help prices.
BX, and other hedge funds and private equity groups are already positioning themselves to become the next generation coal companies. Buy the bonds at a huge discount. Sell of many of the pieces. Keep only the very best mines, and probably run them with non-union labor.
ACI and BTU will be lucky to survive. They probably will survive and prosper again someday, but I don't think ANR will ever have that opportunity.
Just my opinion.
BX and other private equity pools may buy the highly discounted bonds. Common share = wiped out. Bond holders left with some good assets. They will then sell them at a profit, but the common shareholders are DEAD MEAT.
As peak oil approaches, the industry likes to tell the story of abundance, of replacing crude oil with equivalent BTU's of some form of fashion. Nattie Gas will not be as profitable as oil. Also, we will use it faster, the price will go up, the economy will collapse, global warming will kill us anyway.
This industry needs to cut capacity. JRCC will likely be next. Plus one other big bankruptcy (perhaps ANR), then perhaps capacity will be reduced enough to get some decent pricing.
PRB break even = $2.70 NG.
ILB break even = $3.75 NG.
NAPP break even = $4.65 NG.
CAPP break even = $6.00.
Shipping cost and BTU benefit of sulfur affect the equation too.
benstevens75 is right, PRB coal is $12.35, ILB coal is $46.40, CAPP coal is $62.18, and NAPP coal is $68.50.
Let's keep ben talking,because he knows more about coal than most of the rest of us.
Ben, what is your view on BTU as a short, medium, and long term investment? Thank you.