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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

dlhild 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 20, 2014 11:58 PM Member since: Dec 3, 2009
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  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Oct 20, 2014 11:58 PM Flag

    Which is the better investment? What is the difference between the two companies?

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Oct 20, 2014 11:56 PM Flag

    Which is the better investment? What is the difference between the companies?

  • Reply to

    BTU v. KOL

    by resp17zx Oct 20, 2014 2:36 PM
    dlhild@ymail.com dlhild Oct 20, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    It is rather like distinguishing between a "sinker" and a "floater".

  • dlhild@ymail.com by dlhild Oct 20, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Why in the world did the Nikkei jump 578 overnight? BOJ buying all the stock? More Japanese manipulation? Any thoughts?

  • We are assigning an Underperform Rating to the common stock and establishing a one-year price target of $5.00. We are assigning SELL ratings to select senior notes…While Peabody has a stellar reputation and a strong management team, in our view, its shares and senior notes likely will remain under pressure from rising leverage and instability in global coal markets. The shares currently are valued at about 12.4x EV/EBITDA, and could rise to 14.0x if coking coal were to settle at $110/t in the short-term, near where current spot prices are indicated. Our Underperform rating factors in a view that coking coal could settle in the $140-150/t range long-term and the shares should trade at 6.0x-7.0x normalized EBITDA. Our SELL rating on the senior notes is a function of high 7.4x net leverage that could rise to 8.4x with a similar short-term drop in coking coal, also causing free cash flow to turn negative, which would necessitate using revolver capacity or secured debt to cover pending maturities. We are most negative on longer-dated notes the market will realize would be layered with secured debt over time. Like more distressed coal producers (Walter Energy, Alpha Natural Resources, Arch Coal), Peabody’s troubles stem from the debt-financed acquisition of coking coal assets in the 2011 time period when it issued $4bn of debt to purchase Macarthur Coal.

  • Reply to

    This is a $30 stock

    by stockmeisterl03 Jul 30, 2014 11:42 AM
    dlhild@ymail.com dlhild Jul 30, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    Yes, $30 after a 2:1 reverse split. Why not make it a $60 stock after a 4:1 reverse split?

    Coal prices are lower this week than last week. Volumes are likely the same as last week. Hence, cash flow is likely flat to down this week. Natural gas is presently $3.81 per Mcf, meaning that coal's share of the market in the USA is likely to continue to shrink. This stock will fall below $10 before it sees $30. Wait and buy lower. Perhaps BTU is the best horse at the glue factory, but it's still at the glue factory.

    Also, the Fed just dropped its asset purchases to $25 billion per month. Next month will be the first time since they started their tapper that asset purchase amounts of $300 billion annualized ($25 times 12 - $300) drops below the projected deficit of around $450 billion. This means that next month, August, will be the the first month that Fed policy is mildly contractionary. Through July, their policy has been expansionary. Of course one never knows what they are doing non transparently. After stopping the previous QE's the markets softened. If they tapper down to zero, why would markets head south again.

ACI
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