I think we will get a very high percentage of the H&N market very quickly. I have seen the drug used in a few H&N cases and the results are dramatic. Even more dramatic is the simply horrific surgery that can be avoided if the sentinel can be found and is clear of disease. The sentinel is important in breast and melanoma but it is indescribably important in head and neck. My guess is in 18 months H&N will simply not be done without a LS guided gamma detection procedure. As to other cancers I seriously doubt there will be any dramatic use of LS as SLNM is just not done routinely in most other cancers. It is possible that can change but it will require some study and publication which will take 5 or more years to see results in increased use. My opinion is we will get 85 to 90% H&N and about 60% of Breast and melanoma. That will be a nice accomplishment but to drive pps above 4 we need 1 of the other three pipeline drugs to show value.
Procedures are not priced separately. A dose is 300 dollars from Cardinal. NAVB gets 1/2 so that s 150 dollars per procedure at the NAVB Revenue line. Head and neck has never been a huge unit market . It is however a gateway to the broader ILM label It will get very quick use in head and neck as it works in H&N where SC and blue dye fail a high percentage of the time.
Short Analytic s reports about equal volume between longs and short for the past week. That suggest no real short exit yet. The shorts will continue to rip NAVB a new one until there is a revenue report that shows some real progress against the inferred performance of LS. NAVB finally started to set realistic expectations at the Science Day presentation . If they stay on that track and start making those numbers the shorts will in fact start to leave. Until then --pucker up the shorts can and do have this one any time they want it.